Should we simply prepare for a prolonged downturn?

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 14 Apr 2009, 20:31

We have Peak Oil, the UK's debts, the UK's lack of anything worth exporting, global economic decline, the UK's ever increasing cost of energy imports due to North Sea depletion etc etc.

Is it really worth worrying about 'point' issues such as Peak Oil?

Would it not be easier all round to assume that we are entering a shitty decade or two (at least in the UK) and simply do everything we can to pay the bills and put food on the table?

Perhaps we should walk away from forums such as this and start working on improving the house insulation, getting a second (or first!) job, growing food etc.

Just general WW2 style Backs To The Wall survival measures.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 14 Apr 2009, 20:38

People NEED to talk.

That's the reason why in Kenya they lack plumbing yet everybody has a mobile phone.

All of the things you say are true. If you have the cash go for a stash of supplies and solar panels etc etc. Otherwise, figure out how to stay employed.

Regardless of peak oil, I personally can only survive a couple of years without a job. It's ludicrous to think I can feed my family indefinitely off of a handful of fruit trees and a couple of dozen barrels growing potatoes after my stash of tinned food has run out. Not to mention paying the ever present taxman.

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 14 Apr 2009, 20:38

I think we should prepare, as you say, for a long austere period. Make do and mend, grow our own food and energy, network with like-minded people and educate them.

Which is, in fact, what most people on here have been doing.

Post by **clv101** » 14 Apr 2009, 20:59

Vortex wrote:Is it really worth worrying about 'point' issues such as Peak Oil?

Point issues? I thought preparing for peak was, as Catweazle said, preparing for a long austere period.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 14 Apr 2009, 21:11

I've been preparing for a prolonged downturn for thirty years. It's high time we had one.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 14 Apr 2009, 21:26

clv101 wrote:
Vortex wrote:Is it really worth worrying about 'point' issues such as Peak Oil?
Point issues? I thought preparing for peak was, as Catweazle said, preparing for a long austere period.

True - but PO has/had a semi-defined 'profile ... the various T1, T2, T3 etc phases.

I'm now beginning to move from a purely academic viewpoint of what might happen to actually SEEING & EXPERIENCING the economic shit that has come our way.

We all are now in the position of facing a world without decent pensions, stable jobs .. or even reliable housing with food on the table.

All our talk about a forthcoming 'difficult world' is now becoming reality ... in the form of an unexpected (?) recession.

Many of us are now having to make urgent changes to our lifestyles to combat the threat of a new grey world.

PO will indeed be a part of that ... but it might be just one factor messing up our lives in say 4 or 5 years time.

I suppose that I now feel that it's time to switch to General Long Term Survival Mode in the face of a general recession rather than specifically Peak Oil ... although the overall effect will be very similar.

The thing we dread from Room 101 is knocking on the door ... but it's not wearing a PO badge.

A note for those who haven't noticed any change out there yet: The UK economy is REALLY shot and many, many decent, normal hardworking people are suffering financially. They are angry and they see no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless an upturn arrives TOMORROW we shall soon see huge numbers of people and businesses in financial trouble. Really scary stuff.

hardworkinghippy · Post by **hardworkinghippy** » 14 Apr 2009, 21:28

Even if all this was for nothing and life out side in the big wide world continues as usual.

I'm sure you've had a lot of fun biffvernon !

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 14 Apr 2009, 21:43

Absolutely!

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 14 Apr 2009, 21:47

biffvernon wrote:I've been preparing for a prolonged downturn for thirty years. It's high time we had one.

Blimey, you must have been a hoot at school

I've been feeling a little pessimistic for about four years and started laying the foundations for a more self-sufficient lifestyle three years ago.

hardworkinghippy · Post by **hardworkinghippy** » 14 Apr 2009, 22:00

Mid seventies I worked in the "City" and saw and heard a lot so I started doing some research...

I'm still a cheerful Charlie though !

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 14 Apr 2009, 22:06

Vortex wrote:A note for those who haven't noticed any change out there yet: The UK economy is REALLY shot and many, many decent, normal hardworking people are suffering financially. They are angry and they see no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless an upturn arrives TOMORROW we shall soon see huge numbers of people and businesses in financial trouble. Really scary stuff.

Is it really that bad there already?

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 14 Apr 2009, 22:25

I think we should be preparing for an uncertain future. Since I sold my house we've had a big rise and fall in oil prices, rising food prices, the credit crunch, a massive fall in interest rates, falling house prices (

), a recession, pension funds closing or cutting benefits, weird weather, wars, terrorism, more examples of lying, cheating, incompetent government........

So simplifying our lives, growing food, insulating our homes etc. and trying to make ourselves as resilient as possible to whatever might happen seems like a good idea. The sooner we do it, the more prepared we will be. And if we make our plans with a view to having a great life too, if things don't turn out as bad as they could, who cares, because we'll be happy

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 14 Apr 2009, 22:39

Erik wrote:
Vortex wrote:A note for those who haven't noticed any change out there yet: The UK economy is REALLY shot and many, many decent, normal hardworking people are suffering financially. They are angry and they see no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless an upturn arrives TOMORROW we shall soon see huge numbers of people and businesses in financial trouble. Really scary stuff.
Is it really that bad there already?

It's been that bad since the beginning of last year in the canary in the coalmine sectors. Work for my mates in the housebuilding industry died at the end of 2007. I was in Dublin at the time and staying in digs. Half of the Irish guys I was talking to were either just laid off or were on short time. My mate back home had just been laid off and was stuck with 14 buy to let properties. When I went back in January I was lucky to get a six month contract but during that contract I noticed the usual emails (of which I usually got at least a couple per day if not a handful a week started drying up. By the time it got to summer they had dried up entirely and I jumped at the chance of a contract in Oslo. It was *still* dire when I was out there so I decided to bail the family across the ocean. I'm still in touch with everyone and people who only two years ago were talking about what model of mercedes they were thinking of getting are now thinking about whether they might have to sell their houses and move to smaller accomodation so they can live off the difference.
My one mate with the 14 properties is bust. He doesn't know it yet, but he's going to lose everything. He slagged me ferociously even to the point of calling me a loser when things were going up and I didn't partake but now that things are going down I feel bad for him. As bad as things are going to get for me, they're going to be a million times worse for him.

Before that, however, I noticed ominous signs even as far back as 2006. There were "to let" signs all over the city centre just outside the main shopping streets. People who ordinarilly would have been living in council houses were buying places. It was a classic example of zeitgeist.

When it comes down to it, what we're dealing with here is the Anglo-American world's version of the tulip bubble. It will take decades to overcome and we will be both relatively and absolutely poorer by the time the smoke clears. Sad.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 14 Apr 2009, 22:58

Erik wrote:
Vortex wrote:A note for those who haven't noticed any change out there yet: The UK economy is REALLY shot and many, many decent, normal hardworking people are suffering financially. They are angry and they see no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless an upturn arrives TOMORROW we shall soon see huge numbers of people and businesses in financial trouble. Really scary stuff.
Is it really that bad there already?

Yep.

I know MANY retired people ... the well off sort. It's TOTAL mayhem out there.

I also know lots of small business owners ... the majority are in DEEP trouble.

The unifying factor? A deep and strong anger (hate?) concerning MPs finances, banks and City pensions & bonuses.

This is almost universal ... NOT just one or two grumpy people.

If the BNP can reach & exploit these people they will win ANY election they go for ...

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 14 Apr 2009, 23:25

hardworkinghippy wrote:Mid seventies I worked in the "City" and saw and heard a lot so I started doing some research...

I'm still a cheerful Charlie though !

Hey hwh, I am interested what you saw and heard that made you go the route you did. You seemed to be well ahead of most.....

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Should we simply prepare for a prolonged downturn?

Should we simply prepare for a prolonged downturn?

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