Current Oil Price

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 11 Mar 2009, 01:01

fifthcolumn wrote:
Ironically if the drop off is not too severe, that's exactly what we need to stimulate the market towards renewables.

I have maintained, elsewhere if not here, the idea that some little effects of what peakers call "peak oil" ( the hysterical arm waving part rather than usual and expected supply/demand effects ) are perfectly acceptable and perhaps even necessary to convince the right people that using less crude is indeed a good thing, high prices, low prices, any prices.

Change does not happen without some sort of shock to the system. The 70's type shocks appeared to provide nothing but an example of what the next one might look like, which was a good thing, otherwise we wouldn't have lots of modern renewable technology sitting around on the sidelines just waiting for the appropriate financial incentive to solve the problem.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 11 Mar 2009, 12:21

RGR wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:
But according to you, he shouldn't be worried because he should know that prices will rise when demand recovers.

So again, why is he worried?
I didn't see anything in the quoted article where he stated he was worried. Did I miss that part or are you inserting a connotation which otherwise isn't there?

He says 'we will have a problem', which to me implies that he thinks a solution is required which is not currently evident.

Unless you are suggesting that the reason he isn't worried is because he sees it as 'someone else's problem'. But if that is the case, why does he use the word 'we'?

What's the problem he is talking about?

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 11 Mar 2009, 13:23

Andy Hunt wrote:
RGR wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:
But according to you, he shouldn't be worried because he should know that prices will rise when demand recovers.

So again, why is he worried?
I didn't see anything in the quoted article where he stated he was worried. Did I miss that part or are you inserting a connotation which otherwise isn't there?
He says 'we will have a problem', which to me implies that he thinks a solution is required which is not currently evident.

I certainly don't equate the two. We will ALWAYS "have problems", and I suppose we can always be "worried" about them, but one does not presuppose the other.

Of course the oil and gas industry has "problems", their current problem is they don't want to lay off thousands of workers and find themselves in a bind like they did back in the 80's.

Andy Hunt wrote:
Unless you are suggesting that the reason he isn't worried is because he sees it as 'someone else's problem'. But if that is the case, why does he use the word 'we'?

What's the problem he is talking about?

He would really like to see $150/bbl commodity prices back so the governments which comprise OPEC can get back to spending again.

Who has a problem is Russia, Venezuela, and Mexico. Economies which are one trick ponies related to oil and/or gas production and don't understand why they need to invest in infrastructure to maiintain production are asking for it bigtime.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 19 Mar 2009, 10:35

Given the $1.2 dollar printing exercise, this is no surprise.

WTI back to $50 /barrel

http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes

Post by **adam2** » 19 Mar 2009, 12:41

Well over $51 now
How much of this is a real increase caused by supply/demand factors, and how much is due to the inflation of the US$ is debatable.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 19 Mar 2009, 13:15

Over $52 now. The dollar is falling, US oil stocks are still high, and
demand lower than last year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7952701.stm

This year the car show, next year the olympics?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 19 Mar 2009, 13:26

adam2 wrote: How much of this is a real increase caused by supply/demand factors, and how much is due to the inflation of the US$ is debatable.

I'd say it's less debatable and more blatantly inflationary. The main physical indicator of physical crude demand (as opposed to demand for oil as an inflation hedge) is the inter-month timespreads. These are weaker today, indicating the market feeling that demand is weakening vs supply, not tightening.

SILVERHARP2 · Post by **SILVERHARP2** » 20 Mar 2009, 12:49

I went long Nymex Natural Gas last week, it has been bouncing around either side of $4 recently but have to say the fundamentals are lousy at the moment. It could go down to $2 as some stage , the Crude / NG ratio is at that point that NG might have a decent technical rally

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Mar 2009, 15:07

WTI spiked over $53. No particular reason except another $1T stimulus
to the US banks with a toxic asset stitch-up. DJIA very happy.

How can buying up 'assets' which are known to be loans that will never be repaid anything other than printing money and giving it to (very rich) bank shareholders? This is asset stripping at the point of an economic gun.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_da ... kets_crude

WTI is rising up the league table of crude grades. The data is time-lagged, but only TAPIS shows a higher price at this moment.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 06 May 2009, 13:58

I took a while but we finally hit $55 WTI front month.

All ten spot prices now well over $50 at Upstream

There may be 100 million barrels of unsold oil sitting in tankers on the ocean, but if they don't start selling them soon, we are going to see another price spike.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 06 May 2009, 23:09

RGR wrote:lots of modern renewable technology sitting around on the sidelines just waiting for

Renewables-Porn...phwoarr!

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 May 2009, 09:16

WTI $57.65

Tapis spot price $61.31

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 10 May 2009, 21:57

I notice that some consumer 'confidence' is returning with retail sales benefiting. Some are saying it's the first sign of the new 'green shoots' of recovery, no doubt aided by the 'shot in the arm' fiscal stimulus.

I think we have a way to go yet to be honest, but how long until the next oil price spike? 12 months or less?

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 10 May 2009, 22:15

Andy Hunt wrote:I notice that some consumer 'confidence' is returning with retail sales benefiting. Some are saying it's the first sign of the new 'green shoots' of recovery, no doubt aided by the 'shot in the arm' fiscal stimulus.

That would be me buying my grain mill the other day.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 10 May 2009, 22:49

RenewableCandy wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:I notice that some consumer 'confidence' is returning with retail sales benefiting. Some are saying it's the first sign of the new 'green shoots' of recovery, no doubt aided by the 'shot in the arm' fiscal stimulus.
That would be me buying my grain mill the other day.

Well recessions do tend to separate out the wheat from the chaff don't they.