[quote="Adam1"]
I
Are we scary?
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Re: Are we scary?
Are you saying that oil shortages and their associated price spikes haven't caused starvation ? Economic hardship ? Resource wars ? A reversal of globalization ?RGR wrote:You mean, like it has to cause the collapse of modern society? It has to cause starvation? It has to cause economic hardship? It has to cause resource wars? It has to cause reversal of globalization, the downfall of modern man is some form or fashion?
I beg to differ.
Oil price caused a shortage of grain ( bio diesel production ), WHO blamed much starvation on it, oil price caused hardship when it forced whole towns in the USA to close down because people could no longer afford to commute to work, oil shortages contributed to Iraq war ( renamed Iraqi Freedom but we know the real reasons for it ) and will possibly start another war in Iran and another in the Falklands, high oil prices added cost to import / export operations, many transport companies went to the wall as a result.
OH MY DAYS 
Some of the posts above this are exactly what I mean by scary...sorry maybe I'm going to be ruder
As I said in my earlier post I became aware of the fact this (peak oil) was an issue in the 80s. I'm less scared of peak oil than the people that I'm going to have to deal with.
You're all just arguing about who knows more...(respectful nods to the intelligent posts here and there are some but already a thread about the fact I find this forum scary has reduced to a playground of one upmanship)
Imagine the future and decisions really count one of you will be arguing A another B and yet another C....meanwhile you'll miss your planting opportunity and sit starving and no doubt still arguing.
I don't know why because it's maybe completely different but it just reminds me of 'waiting for godot' and pointlessness...
Ultimately theoretically you all agree that oil depletion is hitting a crisis situation that is going to impact the whole world, the degree and speed of this impact has is yet to be determined...But you're arguing about the level and speed of impact...at least argue about the way forward...
Apologies to the people on here who do come across as coherent and constructive.
Imagine for one second I'm living my life happily in suburbia with my nice job and two cars and a foreign holiday. Then somebody mentions 'peak oil' so being unsure what this means I google...I end up here...And it's not that there isn't good information here but trying to find it amongst the one upmanship arguments is sooo difficult....
For me the simple fact is that oil depletion exists, the world has to change, educating the masses would be great but it isn't going to happen while you argue like this.
I pulled out my seeds today, I need to think about planting...I realise I'm totally crap when it comes to pruning
Some of the posts above this are exactly what I mean by scary...sorry maybe I'm going to be ruder
As I said in my earlier post I became aware of the fact this (peak oil) was an issue in the 80s. I'm less scared of peak oil than the people that I'm going to have to deal with.
You're all just arguing about who knows more...(respectful nods to the intelligent posts here and there are some but already a thread about the fact I find this forum scary has reduced to a playground of one upmanship)
Imagine the future and decisions really count one of you will be arguing A another B and yet another C....meanwhile you'll miss your planting opportunity and sit starving and no doubt still arguing.
I don't know why because it's maybe completely different but it just reminds me of 'waiting for godot' and pointlessness...
Ultimately theoretically you all agree that oil depletion is hitting a crisis situation that is going to impact the whole world, the degree and speed of this impact has is yet to be determined...But you're arguing about the level and speed of impact...at least argue about the way forward...
Apologies to the people on here who do come across as coherent and constructive.
Imagine for one second I'm living my life happily in suburbia with my nice job and two cars and a foreign holiday. Then somebody mentions 'peak oil' so being unsure what this means I google...I end up here...And it's not that there isn't good information here but trying to find it amongst the one upmanship arguments is sooo difficult....
For me the simple fact is that oil depletion exists, the world has to change, educating the masses would be great but it isn't going to happen while you argue like this.
I pulled out my seeds today, I need to think about planting...I realise I'm totally crap when it comes to pruning
Well said Dotty.
I have been reading all the articles put on here in the last week.
I am saddened by the bickering that goes on but there are some sensible and knowledgeable people.
I also have known all about PO since the 80's and have been doing what I can ever since to reduce my personal use of fossil fuels but I won't go into any details here.
I discovered this site after watching "A Farm for the Future".
I may stick around and possibly contribute occasionally but it all depends on..........................
I have been reading all the articles put on here in the last week.
I am saddened by the bickering that goes on but there are some sensible and knowledgeable people.
I also have known all about PO since the 80's and have been doing what I can ever since to reduce my personal use of fossil fuels but I won't go into any details here.
I discovered this site after watching "A Farm for the Future".
I may stick around and possibly contribute occasionally but it all depends on..........................
One of the other purposes of this forum is to provide support and community to those who have recently had their "peak moment". It is a sort of refuge from the "consensus trance" that most of us are bathed in most of the time. I think that is why there is such a strong reaction against the dissenters here. They have most of the rest of the internet and their offline communities in which to find lots of people who agree with their views (for now anyway - as things unfold, their cornucopian notions will start sounding risible to even the most PO/CC apathetic onlooker). Peakists have a smaller space to discuss their ideas, without continually having to argue the basics of the PO case.dotty wrote:Imagine for one second I'm living my life happily in suburbia with my nice job and two cars and a foreign holiday. Then somebody mentions 'peak oil' so being unsure what this means I google...I end up here...And it's not that there isn't good information here but trying to find it amongst the one upmanship arguments is sooo difficult....
For me the simple fact is that oil depletion exists, the world has to change, educating the masses would be great but it isn't going to happen while you argue like this.
When I first learned about PO, I didn't rely on this or any other forum to help me decide on the issue. I did what I imagine many others here did: read and listen to the arguments of all those with an opinion on the matter. I also made a judgement about the credibility of the people making the case and, in the absence of personal, detailed, professional knowledge and experience in all the relevant specialisms, about the likelihood of different descriptions of the problem being correct. We all base most of our opinions on most things all the time, as there just isn't enough time to check out all the facts and form a truly evidence-based opinion.
To be honest I just tune out the RGRs and DominicJs of this world. It isn't because I disagree with them, which I do; it's because they are consistently so patronising and self-righteous. I'm sure many of us have come over that way from time to time but they do it in most of their posts. There are other posters I probably don't agree with but I'll still read what they have to say, time permitting (talking of which, I've been typing far too long).
OK then. Why don't you provide some concrete, proof-based facts about how PO is going to affect our lives, complete with timescales?dotty wrote:Some of the posts above this are exactly what I mean by scary...sorry maybe I'm going to be ruder
As I said in my earlier post I became aware of the fact this (peak oil) was an issue in the 80s. I'm less scared of peak oil than the people that I'm going to have to deal with.
You're all just arguing about who knows more...(respectful nods to the intelligent posts here and there are some but already a thread about the fact I find this forum scary has reduced to a playground of one upmanship)
Imagine the future and decisions really count one of you will be arguing A another B and yet another C....meanwhile you'll miss your planting opportunity and sit starving and no doubt still arguing.
I don't know why because it's maybe completely different but it just reminds me of 'waiting for godot' and pointlessness...
Ultimately theoretically you all agree that oil depletion is hitting a crisis situation that is going to impact the whole world, the degree and speed of this impact has is yet to be determined...But you're arguing about the level and speed of impact...at least argue about the way forward...
Apologies to the people on here who do come across as coherent and constructive.
Imagine for one second I'm living my life happily in suburbia with my nice job and two cars and a foreign holiday. Then somebody mentions 'peak oil' so being unsure what this means I google...I end up here...And it's not that there isn't good information here but trying to find it amongst the one upmanship arguments is sooo difficult....
For me the simple fact is that oil depletion exists, the world has to change, educating the masses would be great but it isn't going to happen while you argue like this.
It's just not possible.
Which is why there are those who think hoards of vagabonds will start terrorising the countryside overnight, and those of us who think there will be a long, slow decline and it won't be quite so bad. It's an opinion-based conclusion - and everyone's is different.
Accusing us of being scary isn't constructive. Accusing us of being inconsistent would be sensible. Accusing us of being worried would be perfectly justified.
I must confess that after several years considering this forum to be my interweb home, it's now tipping over into an experience that's more often unpleasant than pleasant.
This tends to happen to every internet community eventually. This one has done very well to have lasted so long, but the time may be coming for one of those schisms where members of the original community decamp to friendlier climes.
In earlier years I think we were all of much the same political and environmental persuasion. Now we have a full spectrum of ideologies here present, none of which can be proven right or wrong, but all of which completely colour everything we say and everything we hear. So now the site has degenerated into 50% arguments and personal attacks, which would be fine except that we don't know which 50% is which.
Implementing the latest version of the phpBB software might go some way to keeping people around, since it offers the ability to ignore the posts of people whose opinions one finds nauseating. Anything to avoid accidentally walking into a firefight.
I just don't think the arguments serve any purpose. No one can win, because no one has all the facts. All we have are political and economic theories, and some small amounts of data that we can easily interpret to support our favourite theory of the moment.
I like coming here to learn about others' experience in building chicken sheds and breeding layers and eaters and so on, not to argue about whether socialism or capitalism is the One True Way of human civilisation. How can we build the trust required to allow ourselves to open up about our situation, our hopes, fears and dreams, if any slightly contentious point is immediately seized upon and reamed for all it's worth?
What going on in powerswitch reflects my biggest fear for a post-civ or post-oil society as well - that any community created by a small group of likeminded folks, will almost inevitably be completely destroyed when one or two people of a different mindset come along.
The eco-hippy mindset is certainly a self-righteous one. And it's certainly hypocritical in its approach to tolerance of other views. It likes to be tolerant, but always eventually finds itself pushed beyond tolerance. "That wasp has as much right to live as you do!" - until it's a swarm and it's too late to do anything about it.
The intolerant selfish view is at least consistent. Just consistently cruel and unpleasant.
Someone once said that most people will only ever listen seriously to views they disagree with when they know that the person expressing those views likes them. Which explains why we're mostly talking at each other these days, instead of with each other.
This tends to happen to every internet community eventually. This one has done very well to have lasted so long, but the time may be coming for one of those schisms where members of the original community decamp to friendlier climes.
In earlier years I think we were all of much the same political and environmental persuasion. Now we have a full spectrum of ideologies here present, none of which can be proven right or wrong, but all of which completely colour everything we say and everything we hear. So now the site has degenerated into 50% arguments and personal attacks, which would be fine except that we don't know which 50% is which.
Implementing the latest version of the phpBB software might go some way to keeping people around, since it offers the ability to ignore the posts of people whose opinions one finds nauseating. Anything to avoid accidentally walking into a firefight.
I just don't think the arguments serve any purpose. No one can win, because no one has all the facts. All we have are political and economic theories, and some small amounts of data that we can easily interpret to support our favourite theory of the moment.
I like coming here to learn about others' experience in building chicken sheds and breeding layers and eaters and so on, not to argue about whether socialism or capitalism is the One True Way of human civilisation. How can we build the trust required to allow ourselves to open up about our situation, our hopes, fears and dreams, if any slightly contentious point is immediately seized upon and reamed for all it's worth?
What going on in powerswitch reflects my biggest fear for a post-civ or post-oil society as well - that any community created by a small group of likeminded folks, will almost inevitably be completely destroyed when one or two people of a different mindset come along.
The eco-hippy mindset is certainly a self-righteous one. And it's certainly hypocritical in its approach to tolerance of other views. It likes to be tolerant, but always eventually finds itself pushed beyond tolerance. "That wasp has as much right to live as you do!" - until it's a swarm and it's too late to do anything about it.
The intolerant selfish view is at least consistent. Just consistently cruel and unpleasant.
Someone once said that most people will only ever listen seriously to views they disagree with when they know that the person expressing those views likes them. Which explains why we're mostly talking at each other these days, instead of with each other.
I totally agree. The most depressing thing about peak oil or any post-civilisation scenario is the awareness that even the most successful and sustainable community is likely going to be destroyed by any aggressive/selfish faction it encounters.dotty wrote:I'm less scared of peak oil than the people that I'm going to have to deal with.
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CountingDown
- Posts: 447
- Joined: 23 Aug 2008, 21:49
- Location: Adrift in the UK
That is the key for me Tess. Silly as it sounds, I'm past the point of thinking/reading/listening to why this might not happen (sorry RGR) I'm just into making sure that whatever form the following decades take we are as prepared as possible. Maybe the forum needs a "Skeptics/Philosophy/Time-killing" section that all those discussions get moved to. Or maybe I just stop reading the General section . . .Tess wrote: I just don't think the arguments serve any purpose. No one can win, because no one has all the facts. All we have are political and economic theories, and some small amounts of data that we can easily interpret to support our favourite theory of the moment.
I like coming here to learn about others' experience in building chicken sheds and breeding layers and eaters and so on, not to argue about whether socialism or capitalism is the One True Way of human civilisation. How can we build the trust required to allow ourselves to open up about our situation, our hopes, fears and dreams, if any slightly contentious point is immediately seized upon and reamed for all it's worth?
Would it be better to just ignore the people who consistently deny peak oil ? I don't think so.dotty wrote:OH MY DAYS
Some of the posts above this are exactly what I mean by scary...sorry maybe I'm going to be ruder
As I said in my earlier post I became aware of the fact this (peak oil) was an issue in the 80s. I'm less scared of peak oil than the people that I'm going to have to deal with.
You're all just arguing about who knows more...(respectful nods to the intelligent posts here and there are some but already a thread about the fact I find this forum scary has reduced to a playground of one upmanship)
Imagine the future and decisions really count one of you will be arguing A another B and yet another C....meanwhile you'll miss your planting opportunity and sit starving and no doubt still arguing.
I don't know why because it's maybe completely different but it just reminds me of 'waiting for godot' and pointlessness...
Ultimately theoretically you all agree that oil depletion is hitting a crisis situation that is going to impact the whole world, the degree and speed of this impact has is yet to be determined...But you're arguing about the level and speed of impact...at least argue about the way forward...
Apologies to the people on here who do come across as coherent and constructive.
Imagine for one second I'm living my life happily in suburbia with my nice job and two cars and a foreign holiday. Then somebody mentions 'peak oil' so being unsure what this means I google...I end up here...And it's not that there isn't good information here but trying to find it amongst the one upmanship arguments is sooo difficult....
For me the simple fact is that oil depletion exists, the world has to change, educating the masses would be great but it isn't going to happen while you argue like this.
I pulled out my seeds today, I need to think about planting...I realise I'm totally crap when it comes to pruning
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Mean Mr Mustard
- Posts: 1555
- Joined: 31 Dec 2006, 12:14
- Location: Cambridgeshire
I've steered clear of a friend of late because I can't tell him much these days. Always has an opinion to offer on any subject, no matter how limited his knowledge. Same thing seems to be happening here, I've stayed away of late. Time the moderator handed out some ASBOs to keep things civil as they used to be, and still are for the most part.
Differences of view are fine, but the aggressive comment from several quarters do really need to be toned down.
Differences of view are fine, but the aggressive comment from several quarters do really need to be toned down.
1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."
The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."
The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
I joined PowerSwitch after meeting several members in real life, and have learned most of what I know about the subject here. Life's too short (and my internet connection too slow) to read all the other sites too.
To me, PO theory is a no brainer. Put in simple terms I see 3 possibililities:
1) There is an effectively infinite supply of oil, and we can have as much as we want indefinitely.
2) There is a finite supply of oil, and we can have as much as we want, until one day we use the last drop, and TS really HTF without warning.
or
3) There is a finite supply of oil, and at some point the amount we are able to use starts to decline, as the easy to get out and process stuff is used up, and we can't get it out of the ground and process it fast enough to maintain (or increase) supply.
1) and 2) don't seem to be realistic possibilities, and 3) seems very logical to me. When the peak will occur is something I have no way of knowing, but from what I have read it could well be soon. Even it it doesn't happen for 100 years, it still makes sense to prepare for it, as the sooner we start the less painful it will be.
But life isn't that simple. The credit crunch (or whatever you want to call it), the recession, climate change, wars, human nature and countless other factors will mean that reality won't be that clear and simple. The bell curve isn't what will really happen to oil supply, and the peak of production won't be at the point it would have been if oil supply wasn't affected by all these other factors.
So to me, peak oil is real, but is only one factor in the energy supply/climate change/ life as we know it changing dramatically roller-coaster we're on at the moment. Fortunately, the solution to most of the problems can be the same, or very similar, and I've found PowerSwitch a great place to learn about and discuss how to prepare.
I've also met, and made friends with, a number of regular contributors, and have been able to make a judgement that they are intelligent, reasonable and level headed people who know what they're talking about. They may be wrong, and in many ways I hope they are, and they may well do too, but I don't think they are. Regardless of that, PowerSwitch is the place where people who think this way can discuss the issues and support each other.
I think that people who question the PowerSwitch view of the world are valuable, and should be made welcome, as they may provide evidence to prove us wrong. BUT, they should only be here if they can put their point of view across in a reasonable and convincing way. A loud mouthed, unreasonable, bigoted or generally offensive person who is incapable of putting their argument in a clear and reasonable way, is unlikely to win an argument with intelligent people, even if they are right, and a person who puts a counter argument in a clear and reasonable way is wrong. They do their cause no good, and just cause upset and bad feeling. If that's what they're here for, they should bugger off and leave us alone, but if they have a valid case, they should acquire some presentation skills, and engage in reasonable discussion that may win us over.
I'm finding PowerSwitch quite scary at the moment, because of the huge number of scary news stories that are posted. I find many topics annoying and frustrating because of the unreasonable people I've mentioned above, and I can see that they could easily scare off new members. But I still like it here, spend far more time here than on any other forum, and find much of it really useful. I would like more discussion on preparations though, and don't want useful topics degenerating into bad tempered arguments. It's good to have a laugh when a serious topic turns silly for a while, so lets have more humour (even if it's just the black kind to preserve our sanity), and less argument.
To me, PO theory is a no brainer. Put in simple terms I see 3 possibililities:
1) There is an effectively infinite supply of oil, and we can have as much as we want indefinitely.
2) There is a finite supply of oil, and we can have as much as we want, until one day we use the last drop, and TS really HTF without warning.
or
3) There is a finite supply of oil, and at some point the amount we are able to use starts to decline, as the easy to get out and process stuff is used up, and we can't get it out of the ground and process it fast enough to maintain (or increase) supply.
1) and 2) don't seem to be realistic possibilities, and 3) seems very logical to me. When the peak will occur is something I have no way of knowing, but from what I have read it could well be soon. Even it it doesn't happen for 100 years, it still makes sense to prepare for it, as the sooner we start the less painful it will be.
But life isn't that simple. The credit crunch (or whatever you want to call it), the recession, climate change, wars, human nature and countless other factors will mean that reality won't be that clear and simple. The bell curve isn't what will really happen to oil supply, and the peak of production won't be at the point it would have been if oil supply wasn't affected by all these other factors.
So to me, peak oil is real, but is only one factor in the energy supply/climate change/ life as we know it changing dramatically roller-coaster we're on at the moment. Fortunately, the solution to most of the problems can be the same, or very similar, and I've found PowerSwitch a great place to learn about and discuss how to prepare.
I've also met, and made friends with, a number of regular contributors, and have been able to make a judgement that they are intelligent, reasonable and level headed people who know what they're talking about. They may be wrong, and in many ways I hope they are, and they may well do too, but I don't think they are. Regardless of that, PowerSwitch is the place where people who think this way can discuss the issues and support each other.
I think that people who question the PowerSwitch view of the world are valuable, and should be made welcome, as they may provide evidence to prove us wrong. BUT, they should only be here if they can put their point of view across in a reasonable and convincing way. A loud mouthed, unreasonable, bigoted or generally offensive person who is incapable of putting their argument in a clear and reasonable way, is unlikely to win an argument with intelligent people, even if they are right, and a person who puts a counter argument in a clear and reasonable way is wrong. They do their cause no good, and just cause upset and bad feeling. If that's what they're here for, they should bugger off and leave us alone, but if they have a valid case, they should acquire some presentation skills, and engage in reasonable discussion that may win us over.
I'm finding PowerSwitch quite scary at the moment, because of the huge number of scary news stories that are posted. I find many topics annoying and frustrating because of the unreasonable people I've mentioned above, and I can see that they could easily scare off new members. But I still like it here, spend far more time here than on any other forum, and find much of it really useful. I would like more discussion on preparations though, and don't want useful topics degenerating into bad tempered arguments. It's good to have a laugh when a serious topic turns silly for a while, so lets have more humour (even if it's just the black kind to preserve our sanity), and less argument.
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CountingDown
- Posts: 447
- Joined: 23 Aug 2008, 21:49
- Location: Adrift in the UK