PowerSwitch

Most of the results are now in.
Significant Labour gains, as was widely forecast.
Significant Conservative losses, also as was forecast.

Also impressive Green party gains, number of Green councillors has more than doubled

adam2 wrote: ↑03 May 2024, 06:53 Most of the results are now in.

Currently fewer than a quarter of the council seats have been declared. Over 2500 were contested, and the total number declared as of 8am is about 650.

The overall picture is clear enough though. A truly dreadful night for the tories, with all other parties making gains. Would be a slightly different picture if Scotland was involved, because the SNP may lose ground to the tories there.

Listening to the Tories on the media round this morning is weird. The general message seems to be to double down on a set of policies positions that have been demonstrated over the last 18 months or so to be very unpopular. How they think 'holding the line' with their current policy mix is going to suddenly become popular in a few months at the GE is a mystery.

The swing to Labour at the by-election was huge.

The tories have got nothing else to say. Their manifesto is likely to come across as just as weird. What are they going to promise? More of the same, or a radical change? Neither message makes much sense, given the context.

I think the only Q for the Tories, is whether the defeat is bad enough for them to move on Rishi Sunak...
That's the only way they could present something different at the GE....
Think they're also pinning a lot of their hopes on getting some flights (even 1) off to Rwanda...

As others have said, lots of the results not in yet....
The Blackpool by-election and LA losses (under 500) were probably 'factored in'....
The big ones for the Tories are the Mayoral Elections, which they're hoping to do well in...

If I was running Tory HQ, I'd be tempted to replace Sunak and go straight to a GE with Penny Mordant as leader.

The platform *wouldn't* be to form the next government (publicity accept that isn't going to happen), but to accept the coming Labour win and instead campaign on the platform of being an effective, strong, opposition. Make the argument that opposition has never been more important, I (Mordant) am the only one to hold Starmer to account.

Making the election result a foregone conclusion likely suppresses Labour turnout, and makes votes for Greens more likely. Bigging up her role as powerful, responsible, *opposition* leader likely combats the risk of low turnout for Tory voters.

That would make it a very strange election campaign..., but they haven't got many options...
The only problem with that strategy is that Tory MPs are unlikely to coalesce behind Penny Mordaunt...
Plenty will have other ideas about who it should be - eg Kemi Badenoch....
Also, Penny Mordaunt hasn't got a very safe looking seat...

Anyone else enjoy the PM4PM vrs Kemi(notPM)4PM exchanges in Private Eye ??

Please please let Kemi Badenoch take over, please, I'm begging.

clv101 wrote: ↑03 May 2024, 09:41 If I was running Tory HQ, I'd be tempted to replace Sunak and go straight to a GE with Penny Mordant as leader.

The platform *wouldn't* be to form the next government (publicity accept that isn't going to happen), but to accept the coming Labour win and instead campaign on the platform of being an effective, strong, opposition. Make the argument that opposition has never been more important, I (Mordant) am the only one to hold Starmer to account.

Making the election result a foregone conclusion likely suppresses Labour turnout, and makes votes for Greens more likely. Bigging up her role as powerful, responsible, *opposition* leader likely combats the risk of low turnout for Tory voters.

But I think this just highlights the scale of their dilemma. In order to avoid coming across as utterly delusional (from a common sense view) they need to admit they've got no hope of preventing a big labour majority. The problem is that this is literally defeatism, and in the systematically dishonest world of mainstream politics that would be very dangerous in itself. Labour can turn it into "this is your chance to change British politics, by removing the tories as one of the 2 parties in the 2-party system". It happened to the old Liberal Party in 1918, and it can happen again.

Bad day for the Conservatives. Will the new Green representatives actually change anything? Might be a good experiment to elect a Green-majority council and find out. Brighton perhaps?

A lot of the gains the Greens are making are explicitly at the expense of Labour for their non-stance on the bombing of Gaza.

I would love it to be for their radical climate or environment policies, but it isnt.

LD win more council seats in this round than the Tories, at least at this stage. Green total exceeds 100.

Last time I looked Galloway's party won 4 seats, and Reform 1.

PS_RalphW wrote: ↑03 May 2024, 12:58 A lot of the gains the Greens are making are explicitly at the expense of Labour for their non-stance on the bombing of Gaza.

I would love it to be for their radical climate or environment policies, but it isnt.

Exactly. The Green Party has totally lost the plot. It's not that Gaza doesn't matter, or identity politics doesn't matter, but that neither of those issues are what the Green Party's main priority should be. Environmentalism should not and must not be a "hard left" issue. That is what the right wants it to be, and unfortunately the Green Party is making their wish come true.

My short stint as a member of the Green Party (a very long time ago) was what finally killed off any hope I had for a political solution to climate change. I attended one meeting, and it sticks in my mind. They spent the entire evening discussing why the Green Party must not have just one leader -- why it needed two leaders, one of each sex (that was before everything was about gender). It was taking detachment from reality to a new level, which is the exact opposite of what proper environmentalism needs.

Khan reelected London mayor with a comfortable majority. It was only right wing media and the BBC that ever suggested it might be different.

Having come down with a bad dose of hay fever and as it is pissing down outside I have been amusing myself watching the coverage of the elections in GB. I have to say that Susan Hall appears to be a very bad loser indeed trying to look neutral but actually looking like she was spitting blood and could have quite happily strangled Kahn during his over long speech. She also looked like she felt that beastly Count Binface had positioned himself solely to personally mock her.