Life, Liberty and the Persuit of Oil
Posted: 05 Jun 2006, 12:53
Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Oil
By Roger Adair
"Circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember. ... What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do anything about it"
Paul Volcker Former US Federal Reserve Board Chairman 2005
Surfing USA
The US naturally features hugely in the growing debate on how peak oil and car accessed, and insanely debt ridden, suburbia will pan out as the world?s energy junky vultures play the end ?great game? over the depleting stocks of black gold and the reality of it all begins to sink in more and more.
In tandem with this, there is a rapidly growing quantity of blogs, books, magazine and newspaper articles, TV and radio documentaries and interviews, web sites, e-forums and discussion groups devoted to the subject. These have grown from a mere trickle to a mighty raging torrent over the past few years.
Declassified critical analysis and commentary on Peak Oil and ?sustainable warfare? are even now forthcoming from the US military in the public domain.
Surely this flood too must peak in the not too distant future? Some of it is very good, some not so good and much of it originates in the US. Techno Curmudgeon Doombats are really spoilt for choice.
Surf?s Up!
Two of these sources are worthy of note.
James Howard Kunstler, of ?Long Emergency? fame, who grows every day in appearance more like the late Hunter S Thompson, runs a lively site, intriguingly called ?Clusterfuck Nation?. Here he comments on what he calls the flux of events. Currently he seems to be making a good living out of being a Peak Oil and End of Suburbia commentator on the web, in print and on the US lecture circuit. He doesn?t beat about the bush and is refreshingly direct.
Another interesting and challenging US commentator is Michael Ventura who writes a bi-weekly column ?Letters at 3AM? for the Austin Chronicle. He covers much the same ground and his work contains seemingly credible thumb nail sketches of how a post - peak oil US would have to look and behave.
Both would bet on buying stock in railway, canal, and possibly horse drawn, transport companies whilst dumping stock in airlines, car manufacturers and suburban sub division tract property developers. This is a thought to bear in mind as the dissembling blarney and acrimony of our own domestic Aer Lingus privatisation road show rolls on.
Bear in mind that the last time Aer Lingus seriously extended both fleet and routes; jumbo jets and cross Atlantic to attract US tourists, coincided with an oil crisis and the troubles in the North.
The Cousins
Many people in Ireland have close relations and friends living in the US or have worked there themselves at some stage of their lives. The relationship between Ireland and the US might best be described as incestuously, economically and culturally dependent dating as it does from the forced migrations there since the 19th Century and the resulting large Irish Diaspora population.
Ireland, along with the UK for different reasons, is thus one main nexus between Europe and North America just as Portugal and Spain are with South and Central America. Our relationship with the US is probably more pragmatic and less painful than the rather sado-masochistic, public school style ?special relationship? the Brits have to endure.
This pragmatism is reflected in the large, ?foothold in Europe? US inward investment in Ireland in areas like Drugs and IT, and our ambivalently dependent and dissembling attitude to the actions and policies of the US government. Luring Intel to locate here, with an offer they couldn?t refuse, is viewed by many as a key event leading to the ?Tiger Economy? era.
The Blarney and Bullshit traded in the Casa Blanca between Bertie and Bush, on Paddy?s day, must surely be off the Richter scale! The nod and a wink official attitude, to issues like Shannon Airport being virtually a de facto extra territorial extension of US sovereignty have little mainstream debate, much as neutral Ireland looked the other way as US military aircraft transited through the ?Donegal Corridor? during WWII, en route to the UK.
Hitching our Wagon
We have become very economically dependent on the USA ? one estimate asserted that 50% of corporation tax paid in Ireland is by US multi nationals. We have thus arrived at the stage where we feel that we cannot literally afford to say boo to them.
Having hitched our wagon in part to the US, to such an intimate and massive extent, our future economic fortunes are thus hugely tied up with the state of the US economy.
The State of the Union
And what is the state of the US economy? Not great according to an increasing number of economic and political commentators.
A number of factors are very striking and group around public and private debt, budget and trade deficits, an unimaginably enormous military and security budget and world wide presence, and of course increasing oil and gas prices and availability.
These factors are aggravated by many recent and historical animosities and old rivalries with other countries. Topping the list probably would be Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia (all major oil/gas producers) and China which now seems to be simultaneously the US?s main recipient of industrial and consumer scrap, international creditor, supplier of cheap goods and rival for access to oil and gas.
In a nutshell, large chunks of the US economy are in hock to the Chinese and other foreign creditors, many who probably regard them as degenerate, dangerous and seriously needing to be reigned in.
On top of this the US property market has now reached ludicrously Himalayan heights of an extreme speculation bubble of fantastic magnitude fuelled by cheap credit, much like our own. Much of that debt is being serviced by people living in overpriced and extremely unsustainable suburban homes who are being squeezed also by rising home heating and petrol prices.
As rising oil and gas prices feed inflation and lead to interest rate increases, along with unavoidable tax increases, this particular noose will be tightened more and more. An election is not that far away.
The Price of Oil
One estimate is that there is also a hidden ?subsidy? of about $1.28 per gallon on all petrol purchased in the US due to the cost of US military operations and aid to foreign governments being deployed to assure the supply of imported oil needed by the USA and on the ?war on terror?.
This is not the ranting of some peak oil zealot but comes from Lieutenant Colonel John M. Amidon, USAF, in the Winter 2005 issue of ?Joint Forces Quarterly?, published by the National Defence University Press for the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
In effect the US taxpayer is actually paying $1.28 more for a gallon of petrol, through taxes, than they think they are paying. The burden of this, as usual, falls disproportionately on low to middle income earners currently being increasingly shafted by an inequitable tax system. They are being squeezed not just to secure oil for the US but for us as well.
Bringing it All Back Home
Ireland?s vulnerability is mirrored in this situation. If the US economy falters ours will surely wither. If they sneeze we will surely catch a dose of something very serious indeed.
This is not helped in the way we have been ever so eager to also imitate all things American such as ludicrously expensive and unsustainable suburban houses, a debilitating fetish for expensive personal road transport and a hugely expensive dependence on imported energy
The effects of, either an economic bubble bursting or further fuel price hikes, on their own, would be serious enough. Put together they would form a deadly brew.
What is being Done?
On the energy front some very small progress is being made however, despite all the small steps and impressive sounding percentages reported officially, we have little to show in reality.
Renewable energy production, for example, is currently about 2% of total energy demand in Ireland. It is still so tiny as to be virtually statistically insignificant. We are still about 20 ? 30 years behind many other European countries in most key technologies.
Mary Coughlan TD, Minister for Agriculture and Food kindly provided me with a copy of a speech she made at the opening of a recent Renewable Energy Resources conference in Letterkenny.
She says that Government is intent on pursuing a coherent and joined up approach to promoting renewable energy and that Noel Dempsey is leading a cross-Departmental cross-agency approach to developing and implementing renewable energy policy.
Now there?s a challenge!
In addition she informs me ? ?that there is a sub-committee under the stewardship of the Taoiseach who is dealing specifically with the issue of energy, and a green paper on energy is going to be finalised within the next ten days or so.?
The farming column of the Letterkenny Post took a very sanguine view of all this, hinting at an element of electioneering going on. The point is made that it is good that renewable energy is, better (very) late rather than never, now well up the government agenda but that cost effective co operation between all the departmental fiefdoms may be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
Infrastructure
Meanwhile the finance minister announces that improving infrastructure will be a priority in the next National Development Plan and that we are, somewhat alarmingly I feel, about to make a ?big jump forward? ? a revealing choice of words to use.
I just wonder what type of big jump Brian Cowan has in his mind. A large part of it might very well revolve around even more road transport, bypasses, large roundabouts, motorways, increased capacity air terminals and alternative gas import facilities.
Perhaps one of his officials could do a little historical research into the genesis of this style of politically predictive phraseology and report to the minister, in some detail, on the social and economic outcomes of the ?Great Leap Forward? instigated by Mao in China many years ago.
An election is not far away.
By Roger Adair
"Circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember. ... What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do anything about it"
Paul Volcker Former US Federal Reserve Board Chairman 2005
Surfing USA
The US naturally features hugely in the growing debate on how peak oil and car accessed, and insanely debt ridden, suburbia will pan out as the world?s energy junky vultures play the end ?great game? over the depleting stocks of black gold and the reality of it all begins to sink in more and more.
In tandem with this, there is a rapidly growing quantity of blogs, books, magazine and newspaper articles, TV and radio documentaries and interviews, web sites, e-forums and discussion groups devoted to the subject. These have grown from a mere trickle to a mighty raging torrent over the past few years.
Declassified critical analysis and commentary on Peak Oil and ?sustainable warfare? are even now forthcoming from the US military in the public domain.
Surely this flood too must peak in the not too distant future? Some of it is very good, some not so good and much of it originates in the US. Techno Curmudgeon Doombats are really spoilt for choice.
Surf?s Up!
Two of these sources are worthy of note.
James Howard Kunstler, of ?Long Emergency? fame, who grows every day in appearance more like the late Hunter S Thompson, runs a lively site, intriguingly called ?Clusterfuck Nation?. Here he comments on what he calls the flux of events. Currently he seems to be making a good living out of being a Peak Oil and End of Suburbia commentator on the web, in print and on the US lecture circuit. He doesn?t beat about the bush and is refreshingly direct.
Another interesting and challenging US commentator is Michael Ventura who writes a bi-weekly column ?Letters at 3AM? for the Austin Chronicle. He covers much the same ground and his work contains seemingly credible thumb nail sketches of how a post - peak oil US would have to look and behave.
Both would bet on buying stock in railway, canal, and possibly horse drawn, transport companies whilst dumping stock in airlines, car manufacturers and suburban sub division tract property developers. This is a thought to bear in mind as the dissembling blarney and acrimony of our own domestic Aer Lingus privatisation road show rolls on.
Bear in mind that the last time Aer Lingus seriously extended both fleet and routes; jumbo jets and cross Atlantic to attract US tourists, coincided with an oil crisis and the troubles in the North.
The Cousins
Many people in Ireland have close relations and friends living in the US or have worked there themselves at some stage of their lives. The relationship between Ireland and the US might best be described as incestuously, economically and culturally dependent dating as it does from the forced migrations there since the 19th Century and the resulting large Irish Diaspora population.
Ireland, along with the UK for different reasons, is thus one main nexus between Europe and North America just as Portugal and Spain are with South and Central America. Our relationship with the US is probably more pragmatic and less painful than the rather sado-masochistic, public school style ?special relationship? the Brits have to endure.
This pragmatism is reflected in the large, ?foothold in Europe? US inward investment in Ireland in areas like Drugs and IT, and our ambivalently dependent and dissembling attitude to the actions and policies of the US government. Luring Intel to locate here, with an offer they couldn?t refuse, is viewed by many as a key event leading to the ?Tiger Economy? era.
The Blarney and Bullshit traded in the Casa Blanca between Bertie and Bush, on Paddy?s day, must surely be off the Richter scale! The nod and a wink official attitude, to issues like Shannon Airport being virtually a de facto extra territorial extension of US sovereignty have little mainstream debate, much as neutral Ireland looked the other way as US military aircraft transited through the ?Donegal Corridor? during WWII, en route to the UK.
Hitching our Wagon
We have become very economically dependent on the USA ? one estimate asserted that 50% of corporation tax paid in Ireland is by US multi nationals. We have thus arrived at the stage where we feel that we cannot literally afford to say boo to them.
Having hitched our wagon in part to the US, to such an intimate and massive extent, our future economic fortunes are thus hugely tied up with the state of the US economy.
The State of the Union
And what is the state of the US economy? Not great according to an increasing number of economic and political commentators.
A number of factors are very striking and group around public and private debt, budget and trade deficits, an unimaginably enormous military and security budget and world wide presence, and of course increasing oil and gas prices and availability.
These factors are aggravated by many recent and historical animosities and old rivalries with other countries. Topping the list probably would be Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia (all major oil/gas producers) and China which now seems to be simultaneously the US?s main recipient of industrial and consumer scrap, international creditor, supplier of cheap goods and rival for access to oil and gas.
In a nutshell, large chunks of the US economy are in hock to the Chinese and other foreign creditors, many who probably regard them as degenerate, dangerous and seriously needing to be reigned in.
On top of this the US property market has now reached ludicrously Himalayan heights of an extreme speculation bubble of fantastic magnitude fuelled by cheap credit, much like our own. Much of that debt is being serviced by people living in overpriced and extremely unsustainable suburban homes who are being squeezed also by rising home heating and petrol prices.
As rising oil and gas prices feed inflation and lead to interest rate increases, along with unavoidable tax increases, this particular noose will be tightened more and more. An election is not that far away.
The Price of Oil
One estimate is that there is also a hidden ?subsidy? of about $1.28 per gallon on all petrol purchased in the US due to the cost of US military operations and aid to foreign governments being deployed to assure the supply of imported oil needed by the USA and on the ?war on terror?.
This is not the ranting of some peak oil zealot but comes from Lieutenant Colonel John M. Amidon, USAF, in the Winter 2005 issue of ?Joint Forces Quarterly?, published by the National Defence University Press for the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
In effect the US taxpayer is actually paying $1.28 more for a gallon of petrol, through taxes, than they think they are paying. The burden of this, as usual, falls disproportionately on low to middle income earners currently being increasingly shafted by an inequitable tax system. They are being squeezed not just to secure oil for the US but for us as well.
Bringing it All Back Home
Ireland?s vulnerability is mirrored in this situation. If the US economy falters ours will surely wither. If they sneeze we will surely catch a dose of something very serious indeed.
This is not helped in the way we have been ever so eager to also imitate all things American such as ludicrously expensive and unsustainable suburban houses, a debilitating fetish for expensive personal road transport and a hugely expensive dependence on imported energy
The effects of, either an economic bubble bursting or further fuel price hikes, on their own, would be serious enough. Put together they would form a deadly brew.
What is being Done?
On the energy front some very small progress is being made however, despite all the small steps and impressive sounding percentages reported officially, we have little to show in reality.
Renewable energy production, for example, is currently about 2% of total energy demand in Ireland. It is still so tiny as to be virtually statistically insignificant. We are still about 20 ? 30 years behind many other European countries in most key technologies.
Mary Coughlan TD, Minister for Agriculture and Food kindly provided me with a copy of a speech she made at the opening of a recent Renewable Energy Resources conference in Letterkenny.
She says that Government is intent on pursuing a coherent and joined up approach to promoting renewable energy and that Noel Dempsey is leading a cross-Departmental cross-agency approach to developing and implementing renewable energy policy.
Now there?s a challenge!
In addition she informs me ? ?that there is a sub-committee under the stewardship of the Taoiseach who is dealing specifically with the issue of energy, and a green paper on energy is going to be finalised within the next ten days or so.?
The farming column of the Letterkenny Post took a very sanguine view of all this, hinting at an element of electioneering going on. The point is made that it is good that renewable energy is, better (very) late rather than never, now well up the government agenda but that cost effective co operation between all the departmental fiefdoms may be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
Infrastructure
Meanwhile the finance minister announces that improving infrastructure will be a priority in the next National Development Plan and that we are, somewhat alarmingly I feel, about to make a ?big jump forward? ? a revealing choice of words to use.
I just wonder what type of big jump Brian Cowan has in his mind. A large part of it might very well revolve around even more road transport, bypasses, large roundabouts, motorways, increased capacity air terminals and alternative gas import facilities.
Perhaps one of his officials could do a little historical research into the genesis of this style of politically predictive phraseology and report to the minister, in some detail, on the social and economic outcomes of the ?Great Leap Forward? instigated by Mao in China many years ago.
An election is not far away.
