FCO on energy
Posted: 17 May 2006, 11:36
I've just been researching various government departments attitudes to energy as part of my MSc project, and came across an interesting document on the FCO (Foreign and Commonwealth Office). It's their Energy Strategy, available here: http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/Energ ... 1004,0.pdf
Some interesting quotes:
There's some positive stuff inthe report too, talking about promoting renewables and efficiency, helping developing countries and tackling CO2 emissions. But this is all inside the current framework of economic growth, as always...
Some interesting quotes:
Good to see they understand the serious nature of the problem.page 4: The United Kingdom is set to become a net importer of oil and gas in the current decade, and will be reliant on supply lines from around the world. Any failure of the UK?s energy supplies would be felt almost immediately. A serious disruption could rapidly have devastating effects on the economy, public health and security of the country.
Sigh. The usual approach, though the obvious link should be that if sufficient investment is not made, then the warning on page 4 applies.page 7 (my emphasis): Most experts believe that there is no shortage of global oil and gas reserves over the next few decades, provided there is sufficient investment made in new production, transport and refinery capacity. Maintaining robust and transparent international markets for energy, including the free movement of capital, is a key policy objective. But many reserves lie in parts of the world where there is political instability, or there are other barriers to investment.
page 13: Given the current dominance of oil and gas in the UK fuel mix, UK economic wellbeing depends on secure oil and gas supplies at an affordable price for the UK and world economies.
Well I guess writing this in 2004 they didn't know how quick the North Sea output would fall in 2005, as we are just about an importer already I think. That figure of 75% by 2020 is very scary. I don't see how it would be possible in today's world, never mind tomorrow's. I suppose that means we need to manage with 25% of our current energy use, plus whatever renewables we can build, in 2020.The UK is currently a net exporter of oil and gas. However, demand for oil and gas is widely projected to rise by 2020, while domestic production is projected to fall. It is likely that the UK will become a net importer of gas annually by around 2006 and of oil by around 2010. By 2020, the UK is expected to be importing around 75% of its primary energy needs.
Well, what do you know, it seems to be happening...page 14: If global demand rises faster than production capacity, sharp increases in global oil prices are likely, with an economic impact on the UK and possible severe disruption to the global economy.
Hmm, they didn't forsee dodgy level sensors in a storage tank at Buncefield, or the platform at Rough catching fire. Hope they have a contingency for such events in future...page 16: An important part of energy security is the potential international threat to the ?hard? security of our supplies. This could take many forms. Recent examples of threats which have materialised include sabotage of Iraqi oil fields and protests in Nigeria, which regularly affect oil and gas supplies. Additionally there are threats to soft targets such as oil and gas company personnel. We need to improve the resilience of the network through improved co-ordination and enhanced capability to anticipate and
counter terrorist and other threats.
There's some positive stuff inthe report too, talking about promoting renewables and efficiency, helping developing countries and tackling CO2 emissions. But this is all inside the current framework of economic growth, as always...