Celtic Tiger Economy?s Potato
Posted: 23 Mar 2006, 18:26
Oil & Gas, the Celtic Tiger Economy?s Potato.
Revisiting and learning from historical events can help when trying to understand how societies react to inevitable profound change and social dislocation brought on by events that cannot be legislated against, controlled or changed by making speeches .
Often the response is characterised by official bluster and denial followed by an inadequate and unhelpfully confused reaction. This need not be, but frequently is, the case
Here the greatest disaster in modern Irish history, the potato famine, is contrasted with the unfolding resource depletion crisis due to Peak Oil and Gas.
Although the historical context and causes of these two events differ they both share common ecological, political and social characteristics. There are disturbing similarities to official reactions to both.
Carrying Capacity
The carrying capacity of an eco system is limited by any substance that is indispensable but inadequate to support the population. This principle was put forward by the distinguished German agricultural scientist, Justus von Liebig, in 1863. It is known as Liebig?s Law or the ?law of the minimum?.
It is easy to imagine how it applies to food, but some thought will show that it applies to a whole range of physical and mental artefacts essential to life and a complex modern economy. Energy availability fundamentally impacts on all the other key areas such as employment, trade, transport and the distribution and manufacture of goods, the value of equities and property, ability to service debt, water supply and food production to name but a few.
On first consideration making a comparison between the period of the famine and today might be claimed as alarmist and invalid. Closer examination of events and circumstances will show that, despite obvious differences, there are some very pertinent similarities from which lessons must be learnt if we are to prevent a potential drama from escalating into a major disaster.
Then
Politics in mid 19th century Ireland was dominated by O?Connell?s repeal movement and the land question. The government of Ireland was a British military occupation on the eve of the famine. The basis of the land question was denied by the, largely profligate debt burdened landlord packed Devon Commission. In 1842 an estimated ?10 million in rents was being remitted out of Ireland, largely to placate the recipient?s creditors.
Despite the horrifically hard conditions under which the majority of people lived, the population rose rapidly, primarily because there was an abundant source of easily obtained cheap food available, in the form of the potato. The census of 1841 reported an official population of 8 million.
This increasing population produced a huge demand for and the sub division of land resulting in enormously high opportunistic rents and prices. If an Irish labourer could not get hold of a patch of land to grow potatoes on his family would starve. Plots were divided and sub divided until families were attempting to live on less than an acre.
Before the major crop failure of 1845 there had been numerous other failures of varying severity dating from 1728 most recently in 1839, 1841 and 1844. The possibility of failure of this indispensable support to Ireland?s human carrying capacity, albeit with the majority of the population existing under harsh conditions, was therefore not unknown.
Nevertheless when first news of the potato ?Murrain? broke the British Government continued to be optimistic assuming any failures would be local as often the case in the past. ??. there is such a tendency to exaggeration and inaccuracy in Irish reports that delay on acting on them is always desirable? wrote Sir Robert ?Orange? Peel, the British prime minister.
Further delay, procrastination and denial followed. Vested interests and political careers were at stake ? repeal of the Corn Laws was a poisoned chalice. The British home secretary, Sir James Graham, wrote to Peel in October 1865 that no steps need be taken yet as the truth abut the Irish potato crop could not be ascertained until digging was completed!
Here it is not intended to describe the increasingly horrific human misery, death and displacement that followed, which has been widely reported elsewhere, but rather to indicate the continuing inadequacy of official response.
A major problem then was that the cause of potato blight, and how it might be treated, would not be scientifically understood until many years later. This ignorance did not prevent the scientific establishment of the day advancing all sorts of useless quack cures in a breath taking display of arrogance and hubris.
Only the minimum of ?least cost? measures were put in place and withdrawn at the earliest opportunity
Now
Politics in 21st century Ireland is dominated by economic, social and infrastructural issues. We can no longer blame the Brits for any shortcomings in our social and economic institutions and development programmes. Massive funds continue to be remitted out of Ireland in purchasing oil and gas, general imports, profits repatriated by multi nationals here and to placate the recipient?s creditors.
Despite the stretched financial circumstances and the increasingly extreme debt burden under which the majority of people live, the population is rising rapidly. Primarily this is because there is an abundant source of easily obtained fuel in the form of currently cheap oil. The recent census reported an official population of over 4 million and growing.
The increasing population is producing a huge demand for credit and the sub division of land resulting in enormously high rents and prices of land and property. Plots are being divided and sub divided until families are attempting to live on less than half an acre.
Before the coming fuel supply failure there have been numerous other interruptions of varying severity the most recent being 1973 and 1979 and this winter?s events in the Ukraine. The possibility of failure of an indispensable support to Ireland?s human carrying capacity is therefore not unknown.
Nevertheless when first news of oil or gas supply difficulties breaks the Irish Government will probably continue to be optimistic assuming any failures will be local as often the case in the past. ??. there is such a tendency to exaggeration and inaccuracy in Oil and Gas reports that delay on acting on them is always desirable? has probably already been written by some civil servant advising their minister.
Further delay, procrastination and denial will certainly follow. Vested interests are at stake ? fossil energy demand control through increased fuel duties and a carbon tax is a poisoned chalice avoided to date. A civil servant has also probably written to their minister that no steps need be taken yet as the truth abut potential oil and gas shortages cannot be ascertained until all further drilling and exploration is completed!
Here it is not intended to describe the increasingly horrific human misery that may follow, which has been widely reported elsewhere, but rather to indicate the continuing inadequacy of official response.
A major problem is that the cause of oil and gas blight and how it might be treated may not be understood widely until many years hence. This ignorance will not prevent the scientific establishment of today advancing all sorts of useless palliative quack cures in a breath taking display of hubris.
Only the minimum of ?least cost? measures will continue to be put in place and withdrawn at the earliest opportunity.
Revisiting and learning from historical events can help when trying to understand how societies react to inevitable profound change and social dislocation brought on by events that cannot be legislated against, controlled or changed by making speeches .
Often the response is characterised by official bluster and denial followed by an inadequate and unhelpfully confused reaction. This need not be, but frequently is, the case
Here the greatest disaster in modern Irish history, the potato famine, is contrasted with the unfolding resource depletion crisis due to Peak Oil and Gas.
Although the historical context and causes of these two events differ they both share common ecological, political and social characteristics. There are disturbing similarities to official reactions to both.
Carrying Capacity
The carrying capacity of an eco system is limited by any substance that is indispensable but inadequate to support the population. This principle was put forward by the distinguished German agricultural scientist, Justus von Liebig, in 1863. It is known as Liebig?s Law or the ?law of the minimum?.
It is easy to imagine how it applies to food, but some thought will show that it applies to a whole range of physical and mental artefacts essential to life and a complex modern economy. Energy availability fundamentally impacts on all the other key areas such as employment, trade, transport and the distribution and manufacture of goods, the value of equities and property, ability to service debt, water supply and food production to name but a few.
On first consideration making a comparison between the period of the famine and today might be claimed as alarmist and invalid. Closer examination of events and circumstances will show that, despite obvious differences, there are some very pertinent similarities from which lessons must be learnt if we are to prevent a potential drama from escalating into a major disaster.
Then
Politics in mid 19th century Ireland was dominated by O?Connell?s repeal movement and the land question. The government of Ireland was a British military occupation on the eve of the famine. The basis of the land question was denied by the, largely profligate debt burdened landlord packed Devon Commission. In 1842 an estimated ?10 million in rents was being remitted out of Ireland, largely to placate the recipient?s creditors.
Despite the horrifically hard conditions under which the majority of people lived, the population rose rapidly, primarily because there was an abundant source of easily obtained cheap food available, in the form of the potato. The census of 1841 reported an official population of 8 million.
This increasing population produced a huge demand for and the sub division of land resulting in enormously high opportunistic rents and prices. If an Irish labourer could not get hold of a patch of land to grow potatoes on his family would starve. Plots were divided and sub divided until families were attempting to live on less than an acre.
Before the major crop failure of 1845 there had been numerous other failures of varying severity dating from 1728 most recently in 1839, 1841 and 1844. The possibility of failure of this indispensable support to Ireland?s human carrying capacity, albeit with the majority of the population existing under harsh conditions, was therefore not unknown.
Nevertheless when first news of the potato ?Murrain? broke the British Government continued to be optimistic assuming any failures would be local as often the case in the past. ??. there is such a tendency to exaggeration and inaccuracy in Irish reports that delay on acting on them is always desirable? wrote Sir Robert ?Orange? Peel, the British prime minister.
Further delay, procrastination and denial followed. Vested interests and political careers were at stake ? repeal of the Corn Laws was a poisoned chalice. The British home secretary, Sir James Graham, wrote to Peel in October 1865 that no steps need be taken yet as the truth abut the Irish potato crop could not be ascertained until digging was completed!
Here it is not intended to describe the increasingly horrific human misery, death and displacement that followed, which has been widely reported elsewhere, but rather to indicate the continuing inadequacy of official response.
A major problem then was that the cause of potato blight, and how it might be treated, would not be scientifically understood until many years later. This ignorance did not prevent the scientific establishment of the day advancing all sorts of useless quack cures in a breath taking display of arrogance and hubris.
Only the minimum of ?least cost? measures were put in place and withdrawn at the earliest opportunity
Now
Politics in 21st century Ireland is dominated by economic, social and infrastructural issues. We can no longer blame the Brits for any shortcomings in our social and economic institutions and development programmes. Massive funds continue to be remitted out of Ireland in purchasing oil and gas, general imports, profits repatriated by multi nationals here and to placate the recipient?s creditors.
Despite the stretched financial circumstances and the increasingly extreme debt burden under which the majority of people live, the population is rising rapidly. Primarily this is because there is an abundant source of easily obtained fuel in the form of currently cheap oil. The recent census reported an official population of over 4 million and growing.
The increasing population is producing a huge demand for credit and the sub division of land resulting in enormously high rents and prices of land and property. Plots are being divided and sub divided until families are attempting to live on less than half an acre.
Before the coming fuel supply failure there have been numerous other interruptions of varying severity the most recent being 1973 and 1979 and this winter?s events in the Ukraine. The possibility of failure of an indispensable support to Ireland?s human carrying capacity is therefore not unknown.
Nevertheless when first news of oil or gas supply difficulties breaks the Irish Government will probably continue to be optimistic assuming any failures will be local as often the case in the past. ??. there is such a tendency to exaggeration and inaccuracy in Oil and Gas reports that delay on acting on them is always desirable? has probably already been written by some civil servant advising their minister.
Further delay, procrastination and denial will certainly follow. Vested interests are at stake ? fossil energy demand control through increased fuel duties and a carbon tax is a poisoned chalice avoided to date. A civil servant has also probably written to their minister that no steps need be taken yet as the truth abut potential oil and gas shortages cannot be ascertained until all further drilling and exploration is completed!
Here it is not intended to describe the increasingly horrific human misery that may follow, which has been widely reported elsewhere, but rather to indicate the continuing inadequacy of official response.
A major problem is that the cause of oil and gas blight and how it might be treated may not be understood widely until many years hence. This ignorance will not prevent the scientific establishment of today advancing all sorts of useless palliative quack cures in a breath taking display of hubris.
Only the minimum of ?least cost? measures will continue to be put in place and withdrawn at the earliest opportunity.
