PowerSwitch

Ok,

Here is my naive and cynical take on what is really happening in the sphere of world politics. I think that the US administration (and our own, following their example) are preparing for ?Peak Oil? in the following manner: -

Firstly they aim to maintain at all costs the appearance of ?Business as usual? whilst following an agenda which will prepare the US and the world for a New Order. This would be an elite US Neo-Conservative project to maintain the US position of global supremacy, and equally the domination of the US population. (I think that in the UK, TPTB are following an identical path based on a hope of hanging on the shirttails of the US as they undertake this project).

To achieve this goal the US have invaded Iraq not to exploit the Iraqi Oil now, but to secure it for later use. With PO tinted specs they can see that energy will be all important following the imminent world economic collapse. Hence the construction of the five massive military ?police stations?. It would seem that having constructed these military fortifications they care not about the civil unrest in Iraq and the imminent threat of Civil war. In fact, as long as they can secure the oil fields and platforms, it may be seen as a useful distraction if the ?insurgents? fight amongst themselves this could be ?spun? to legitimise continuing occupation. The drop in Iraqi oil production may not be unplanned, but rather a measure to conserve the worlds second biggest oil reserve for a future time when it will be much more valuable. In this light any threat from Iran needs to be squashed before it becomes a problem.

With regard to the economic actions of the US, you can either believe that they have no idea what they are doing, or that they have decided to exploit the world for their own ends. They seem to have decided to ?spend like there?s no tomorrow?, and perhaps this is correct. If Peak Oil leads to TEC then there is no purpose in economic prudence, rather spend someone else?s money on building up your military to secure your energy supplies, then devalue your currency to destroy your debt. This may also happen on a smaller scale, with the manipulation of the Gold Price being a preparatory sign.

Finally the US (and the UK) need to prepare for an increasingly unsettled populous, when Peak Oil leads to massive economic recession / depression. To prepare for this you need to introduce measures in law, which allow for mass control of the people. To this aim the US patriot act, and our own ID database (not ?ID card?, that is a sales strap line) are steps to hand increasing levels of monitoring and control to TPTB. We can see this creeping State control in the exclusion zone around Parliament, and the changes to the right to freedom of speech. The final element of this jigsaw in the UK is the ?death of parliament Act? which is now before the house.

With ?PO tinted specs? on the world looks very different, I increasingly think that exploitation will be the key aspect of our future political and economic picture. The exploitation of powerful countries over the weak and equally the exploitation of the energy rich over the energy poor.

Ok rant over, it all probably sounds totally obvious and a little naive but what the hey, if I can?t talk to you guys?

You can certainly talk to us guys and gals Ballard and what you have said makes an awful lot of sense to me. I have uttered my feelings on here before and it does help to get it off your chest. For what it is worth, I can't fault what you have written.

I suspect the powers that be (TPTB) know a lot more than we think - lets face it they must do, so we have got to assume that all govt actions have full PO awareness behind them. This is what I assume and have done for some time.

The only consolation I have for my own sanity, is that I have managed to be part of the minority that includes us lot - ie PO aware people - we know what is really happening in this world behind the various facades. It does give me a degree of satisfaction that I know what is going on and thus can prepare mentally and physically for the new world that is breaking upon us.

snow hope wrote:I suspect the powers that be (TPTB) know a lot more than we think - lets face it they must do, so we have got to assume that all govt actions have full PO awareness behind them. This is what I assume and have done for some time.

I used to lean that way but not anymore. Politicians are just regular people and like regular people they (with a few exceptions) think imminent peak oil is bunk.

Nice thoughts, Ballard, but your post implies that the US government actually has a plan. I think it is now pretty clear that when they (we) invaded Iraq the plan stopped at 'Get to Baghdad'.
If, as a result of the awful cockup, a lot of oil gets left under the sand for a few extra years someone is bound to say 'Oh yes, that was our cunning plan all along' and try to take some credit. History shows that most stuff happens by a series of unplanned cockups with real conspiracies never getting very far.

But, but, that would mean that the MASSIVE US (and potentially UK) financial problems are just poor management?

A child of ten could see that the US is digging itself into a situation of economic meltdown, I cannot seriously believe that the administration does not realise this, and have some kind of a plan in place (however misguided).

I also waver between the 'they've got a plan' and the 'they are just incompetent' camps. In my darker moments I see some general themes to the direction of our world society. Those themes; increasing government intervention, apparent financial incompetence, and increasing militarisation would seem an 'appropriate' preparation to the effects of PO if you are in a position of power and wish to maintain that position. But, as pointed out, my knowledge of PO may just mean I see connections where none exist. I guess that watching world events unfold should push my opinion further one way or the other.

Ballard wrote:Firstly they aim to maintain at all costs the appearance of ?Business as usual? whilst following an agenda which will prepare the US and the world for a New Order

I dont belive this is something that will happen. Could you give just one historical example of an empire or civilisation which has gone down that way? OK, some whackos might have some NWO plans, but that is simply not the way empires go down. The only "new order" to expect is probably "less order". A lot less.

I think your assessment is largely correct, Ballard:-

I think that the UK and US Governments do indeed want to create a 'business as usual' image, but are taking different approaches to the post-peak world. The UK Government wants to build new nuclear, but is also encouraging distributed microgeneration to plug the 'energy gap' - probably a reasonably sensible policy, from their point of view (nuclear can only be a stop-gap, though - they probably don't want to be without nuclear when other 'top' countries aren't). This is also what individual state governments in the US are doing. The US Federal Government however couldn't care less about the citizens post-peak, and is more concerned with their friends in big business and the military.

Iraqi oil is probably for the use of the US and UK military post-peak (for operations both inside and outside of US/UK). I wouldn't be at all surprised if the US has designs on ALL the oil in the Middle East. Russia is now the only superpower self-sufficient in energy, and the ME has traditionally been a UK/US sphere of influence. Tony Blair is no doubt hoping to get some of that oil. Interesting that the UK controls Basra, the strategic gate to Iraq. Low numbers of troops on the ground but of high strategic significance.

I think that both Governments DO know about PO, but the UK Gov't is selling the solutions to the public under the cloak of tackling climate change. The US Gov't is in the pocket of big business, so doesn't discourage the use of oil, only oil from state-owned companies in the Middle East.

I think the UK Gov't wants to get the benefits of co-operation with the US, but is encouraging microgeneration solutions because social stability at home can only be good for escapades elsewhere in the world. I think the UK Gov't is more shrewd than the Americans. We are a much older country, have survived much more history, and I think that for all their faults, UK politicians and the secret service are intending that the UK remain intact socially and politically post-peak. It may well be much more of a police state, but I think that is the Government's response to what it perceives will be social chaos post-peak. And who knows - they may be right.

Privatising British Energy again!? Last time it was so successful:

British Energy was privatised in 1996 with what was then seen as the commercially viable British nuclear interests. The private venture didn?t turn out to be particularly viable though with the government forced to invest ?3bn in 2004, assume liabilities worth between ?150m and ?200m p.a. over the next ten years and reclassify the company as a public body. The 1996 privatisation had netted just ?2.1 billion.
http://uk.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/7/161731/4635

Other assets which could be sold include the public spectrum airwaves, which are occupied by the government but could be sold to telecom and mobile phone companies. A third of the available spectrum is used for defence, maritime, aeronautical, scientific and emergency services. In December last year a report by Professor Martin Cave suggested that vast swathes of unwanted or unused spectrum could be released and traded.

The government believes this could produce billions of pounds in cash in the same way as the auction for 3G licences did in 2000. At the outset of that sell-off the chancellor believed the auction might raise ?2bn; in the event it brought in ?22.5bn.

If the government believes that they will be sourly disappointed. There is no appetite in the wireless industry for further multi-billion pound spectrum acquisitions.

MacG wrote:I dont belive this is something that will happen. Could you give just one historical example of an empire or civilisation which has gone down that way? OK, some whackos might have some NWO plans, but that is simply not the way empires go down. The only "new order" to expect is probably "less order". A lot less.

I'm with MacG on this one. Cock-up, not conspiracy.

Although if you're a smart operator you can exploit previous cock-ups as opportunities.

So yes the plan went as far as "Get to Baghdad and topple a statue"; the (unintended) consequence has been that a lot of Iraqi oil is still in the ground, and we've still got a military presence there - so the opportunity is to use this to secure some oil for later. But that is only one thread in a complex story, and less order as the new order seems the most likely next phase.

Is it not true that generally one civilization decays a long way into chaos before a new one emerges - any reasons why present circumstances should change that?

Excellent graph shouwing US govt spending on the options in a Daily Kos article on the Total CEO affirming the reality of PO.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/10/18496/1421