Conservative party/opposition watch

[UndercoverElephant]

From today's Telegraph:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... utality%2F

Last night I was sent a single WhatsApp message from a prominent member of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs. The message said: “Rishi PM. Hunt CX. Penny FS. And it’s a done deal.”

The brutality of that statement is shocking. Two weeks ago people dismissed Home Secretary Suella Braverman's remark that there was a “coup” underway to push Liz Truss out of office. Well, they aren't now.

Truss is now increasingly surrounded. I count around six allies of Truss in the Cabinet: Jacob Rees-Mogg, James Cleverly, Simon Clarke, Suella Braverman, Ranil Jayawardena and Therese Coffey. One cabinet ally of Truss told me: "We have taken 10 steps back."

For Trussites, one of the big questions is for how long will Hunt’s influence be confined to the Treasury.

Power flowed on Friday from Number 10 to Number 11 like water from a leaky pipe with Kwarteng's replacement by Hunt - and it is not going to be returning any time soon.

His huge promotion straight into the number-two job in Government gives him a veto over large areas of policy, including immigration and sorting out the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The way forward is far from clear now. Senior backbenchers like Tobias Ellwood think that a new leader can simply be installed, without asking for the members' say-so. This is unacceptable. But then again can the country stomach another six-week Tory leadership race?

At the heart of this mess is a central truth that it is anti-democratic to remove a Prime Minister midway through a Parliamentary term without an election.

For me, the only way to heal the wounds in the party is to do something unconscionable until a few weeks ago: ask Boris Johnson back to take over again as leader.

For this to happen Johnson will have to get clear of the privileges committee process rapidly, apologise to the party and the country, and change the way he governs.

It is a tall ask. But it is that - or a general election. The Tories are in an invidious position. And it is all their own fault.

Uh-huh. So either the leopard is brought back, having promised to change his spots even though he has previously admitted he is incapable of doing so, or there must be a general election.

GE it is then.

[UndercoverElephant]

And from todays FT:

https://archive.ph/p2624

George Osborne, the former Conservative chancellor, told Channel 4 “there will be a way” to force Truss’s exit. “Both Boris Johnson and Theresa May were removed outside of the rules of the 1922 committee. So I wouldn’t spend too much time worrying about those rules,” he said.
“I think the 1922 committee, or indeed a large number of MPs, can just force the issue. So water will find its way downhill,” Osborne added.
If Truss is removed, there is a chance the party will embark on another leadership race that could take weeks to decide at a time of economic crisis.
One former cabinet minister said: “It is utter madness if MPs think they can kick her out and have some kind of new leader installed without a general election. The public simply won’t accept another prime minister without a general election.”
Hunt is seen as the frontrunner to succeed Truss, thanks to his show of loyalty in steadying the government after Kwarteng’s departure and his calm media performances.
“I’ve always thought Jeremy is a boring technocrat, but that is probably what we need right now,” said one MP.

Seems like I am not the only one who thinks a General Election is looming.

[Potemkin Villager]

Politics generally seems to have got to the point where, not wishing to admit they have lost control,
politicians retreat to the much more comfortable zone of endlessly campaigning for projects unlikely of success
and spun out arcane processes of choosing between candidates equally incapable of leadership. This is just
the sort of stuff dear old Crazy Kunstler kept banging on about in "The Long Emergency" many moons ago.

[clv101]

Incredible statement from Hunt just now. He's scrapped almost all of the Truss mini-budget, even cutting the energy support plan back to April-23 instead of 2 years. Her economic plan has been junked - Truss can't survive such a humiliation, and Hunt is now the de facto PM.

[UndercoverElephant]

Hunt is now the de facto PM.

Yes. I don't see how she can appear in public without totally humiliating herself. She's sent Penny Mordaunt to the commons to answer urgent questions this afternoon. I wonder if she is going through some sort of mental breakdown.

[automaticearth2]

Hunt is now the de facto PM.

Yes. I don't see how she can appear in public without totally humiliating herself. She's sent Penny Mordaunt to the commons to answer urgent questions this afternoon. I wonder if she is going through some sort of mental breakdown.

I reckon she might be gone already. I was listening to LBC on the way home just now, and the pundit was saying as such. Plus, there are also murmurings of a forthcoming general election being sooner rather than later. You couldn't really make any other this up - Truss comes 1st after a lengthy leadership election. Truss screws up, gets the boot (or will be), and Sunak gets slotted in as PM. We could have just done away with the whole thing and stuck Sunak in there.

[Potemkin Villager]

.... but, but the membership chose her and not him for some reason.
This is not democracy!

[automaticearth2]

From the Torygraph live blog:

'Penny Mordaunt unable to disclose reason for PM's absence
Penny Mordaunt told the House of Commons she is unable to disclose the reason why Liz Truss did not attend the chamber to answer the urgent question from Sir Keir Starmer this afternoon.

The Commons Leader said: "I can't disclose the reasons. I have asked if I can. I am being very genuine with the House on this matter. I hope that she will be able to join us a bit later on this afternoon."'

She's not under a desk apparently. Oops - she's just turned up.....apparently she was talking to someone in the Ukraine parliament..

[Catweazle]

Liz looks paralyzed, totally stressed out. I think she knows she'll be out of the job within the week.

[automaticearth2]

Liz looks paralyzed, totally stressed out. I think she knows she'll be out of the job within the week.

Agreed. *unts U-turns to satisfy the bond markets are basically going to destroy what's left of the middle class, including small businesses if the costs of energy at £4k a year play out. I was quite surprised how little money these punishing tax increases will save. This will mean lower tax receipts, so they'll be getting less. Lots of people I know are just saying '**** it' and are doing all manner of side hustles to boost their income. I guess this will increase massively in the coming year(s).

[UndercoverElephant]

Tonight's poll...

LAB: 56% (+3)
CON: 20% (-4)
LDEM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 5% (+2)

[clv101]

Ha, that leaves the Tories with one seat:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... y=2019base

559 to Labour...

[Stumuz2]

I leave the country for a few days and look what happens!

Not really interested in the political personalities’ trivia, more what happens next and how do people prepare.

It is clear, that the Truss/KK objectives were good. Recognising that Britain urgently needed disruptive approaches and policies to drive growth and improve productivity, especially in the left behind areas. This was to be accomplished by investments zones, re-shoring, and yes tax cuts.

Their plan was to do a Thatcher and let growth rip, by transforming the UK’s lethargic low-growth, low-wage and low-productivity economy into an energy rich, growth driven economic powerhouse. Although they were very quiet on why they hadn’t already done it.

There biggest mistake was not tickling the tummies of the crybaby financiers. It is clear that the world of finance likes wage slaves. Money slaves that know their place. Money slaves that cannot escape the chains that bind them.
Wouldn’t it be brilliant and two fingers to the financiers, if we had a repeat of 1991 and a 60% crash in house prices/stocks/bonds so young people could get on the housing ladder? Or people just getting by could put their savings into stocks and bonds and get an actual above inflation return?

But that is not going to happen. The financiers have won again.

So ,what to expect. More QE is inevitable. But as it will go straight to the top 10%, raises their asset prices, who will then get the profit out of the country so no tax is paid.

Also, as the BoE does QE, then of course they will say, we will need austerity to pay for it.
So Austerity 2 is on the way for the poorest people in society. Don’t worry some people will say, we can vote labour. Do we think the financiers will bankroll a Labour gov’ who will probably want to unwind austerity 2 and send the bill to the top 10%?

The (IFS) has analysed how much households pay in tax. Their data, which covers around three quarters of tax revenues (including income tax, NICs, VAT, excise duties and council tax) – found that the 50% of households with the largest incomes contribute around 78% of taxes. How much more does Labour think the well off will pay? How do you tax 400oz gold bars held in opaque trusts in Singapore or Switzerland? Or distributed company profits in Ireland but reside in the UK because of the common travel area. These are simple examples on how tax is discretionary for the wealthy.

Sorry for going on but it seems that faux outrage is bursting out everywhere amongst the media and chattering classes. Everyone seems to be rejoicing that a genuine attempt to transfer from a low wage/skill economy to a higher wage/skill has been so dramatically thwarted. And no one is talking about austerity 2 which is the logical corollary.

I can see some pretty dodgy political parties coming to power. Le Pen in France, Sinn Fein in RoI, and a yet unknown party in the UK. The UK party will come from nowhere, a more radical form of UKIP perhaps. Political economic history, always ends up the same. As times get hard, politics gets ugly and looks for scapegoats.

[UndercoverElephant]

You are the one assuming that Sunak will be the next leader in the first place , I am saying that even that is not as sure as you seem to think.

OK, based on today's events I accept that this is an unsafe assumption. Rumours are now that the tory party is rallying around Hunt as compromise figure to take over as PM. This is the same Hunt who came 8th out of 8 in the tory leadership contest, the reason for which is that the public can't stand him because they know him as the person who gutted the NHS. But that makes him a good compromise candidate, because it solves the factional infighting between supporters of the various people who didn't come last.

If Hunt takes over then he won't call an election. He'll be taking over to try to minimise the long-term damage to the tory party's reputation for economic competence, and that is all. Everybody, including the tories, will be resigned to losing the next election (which is exactly why they are willing to accept Hunt as PM). Which means we're in for 2 years of something far worse than austerity Part One, while the Labour Party endlessly reminds people that it was the tory party which did this to them. They will not recover in the polls, and they will be annihilated in a general election in 2025.

[emordnilap]

I can see some pretty dodgy political parties coming to power […] Sinn Fein in RoI […]

Agreed, the Irish will have to get SF out of their system somehow, so they'll do well at the next election. However, for good or for bad, we have an excellent, moderate electoral system where one party rarely has the upper hand.