EU membership referendum debate thread

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 24 Jun 2016, 10:23

Good result for the UK - markets already stabilising - now down 5%

Sterling / Dollar down about 9 cents

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 24 Jun 2016, 10:31

Goes to show the market makers are just a bunch of gamblers.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 24 Jun 2016, 10:46

woodburner wrote:Goes to show the market makers are just a bunch of gamblers.

The market makers reply simply to supply and demand. They generally don't take intentional positions.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 24 Jun 2016, 10:58

woodburner wrote:Goes to show the market makers are just a bunch of gamblers.

It is just a commercial WE ARE DODGY....

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 24 Jun 2016, 11:13

Fascinating times.

I wonder how the loss of CAP subsidies is going to pan out (especially for NI - the bulk [87% according to one source] of farmers' income there is subsidy).

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 24 Jun 2016, 11:17

snow hope wrote:It is just a commercial WE ARE DODGY....

The "house odds" are, however, negative. ie on average pension funds and the like get money out of the system rather than losing it.

oobers · Post by **oobers** » 24 Jun 2016, 11:58

emordnilap wrote:Fascinating times.

I wonder how the loss of CAP subsidies is going to pan out (especially for NI - the bulk [87% according to one source] of farmers' income there is subsidy).

I hope farmers will have time to transition away from subsidies and produce a diversity of food for their localities and not so much monoculture for export. A letter from Ed Mayo of Co-ops UK:

Dear member,

As a network of democratic enterprises, we will work with the referendum outcome to leave the European Union. Our primary task will be to monitor and safeguard the position of our members when it comes to bringing legislation and rules back to the UK.

There is a very large legislative agenda that will come with Brexit, so we will need to be astute in our lobbying to promote other ongoing changes that we wish to see around the regulation and promotion of co-operatives, and to champion Britain's social economy, as otherwise these may be pushed aside.

The future of agricultural policy and farm support will be of particular importance to the growing number of farmers working through producer co-operatives. We will redouble efforts to champion and support farmer co-operation.

Where there are opportunities to press for more pro-co-operative action in a UK setting, such as for a less restrictive approach to state aids, in support of more local, community economic development, we will look to champion these, in partnership with our members and others.

We remain entirely committed to the European co-operative sector. As a symbol of this, with the support of one of our leading co-operatives, we have offered to host a forthcoming meeting of the Board of Co-operatives Europe here in the UK. In a separate post, we write about the welcome arrival in the UK of the great Basque co-operative, Mondragon, with support for ventures in Northern Ireland.

Saturday 2 July is the United Nations International Day of Co-operatives and we will be celebrating not just the close of UK Co-operatives Fortnight, but the cause of international co-operation. The day has run since 1923, one of the earliest initiatives of the International Cooperative Alliance, formed by the UK and French co-operative sectors in a vision of internationalism. The values of openness and the spirit of international co-operation are needed now as much as ever.

Ed Mayo, Secretary General

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 24 Jun 2016, 11:59

johnhemming2 wrote:
woodburner wrote:Goes to show the market makers are just a bunch of gamblers.
The market makers reply simply to supply and demand. They generally don't take intentional positions.

No John, having worked in that "industry" albeit in back office - you have it wrong there.

Who creates the demand in the first place?
What about HFT front running trades? By so doing the Market Traders are actually taking intentional positions by either forcing the stock prices up if a client wants to buy or drop the price in the event of a sell-off

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 24 Jun 2016, 12:03

johnhemming2 wrote:
snow hope wrote:It is just a commercial WE ARE DODGY....
The "house odds" are, however, negative. ie on average pension funds and the like get money out of the system rather than losing it.

The average pension fund is toast regardless.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 24 Jun 2016, 12:05

It is only possible to front run a trade if you are acting as an agent as well as a principal. MarketMakers inherently act as principals. Yes there are people who do a mixture, however.

Strict market making is responding to supply and demand. Trades are going through on Lloyds on both retail buy and sell I have just checked.

It is entirely sensible to expect such participants to act in anticipation of demand, but the taking of long term positions is not something you would expect in market making.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 24 Jun 2016, 12:10

TAE: Brexit: The System Cannot Hold

Ilargi wrote: The overwhelming underlying principle that we see at work here is that centralization is dead, because the economy has perished. Or at least the growth of the economy has, which is the same in a system that relies on perpetual growth to ‘function’.

But that is something we can be sure no politician or bureaucrat or economist is willing to acknowledge. They’re all going to continue to claim that their specific theories and plans are capable of regenerating the growth the system depends on. Only to see them fail.

It’s high time for something completely different, because we’re in a dead end street. If the Brexit vote shows us one thing, it’s that. But that is not what people -wish to- see.

Unfortunately, the kinds of wholesale changes needed now hardly ever take place in a peaceful manner. I guess that’s my main preoccupation right now.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 24 Jun 2016, 12:14

johnhemming2 wrote:It is only possible to front run a trade if you are acting as an agent as well as a principal. MarketMakers inherently act as principals. Yes there are people who do a mixture, however.

Strict market making is responding to supply and demand. Trades are going through on Lloyds on both retail buy and sell I have just checked.

It is entirely sensible to expect such participants to act in anticipation of demand, but the taking of long term positions is not something you would expect in market making.

So you're totally ignoring the role of HFT then, John which renders your argument to being nothing more than superfluous

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 24 Jun 2016, 12:32

HFT is not really about fundamentals, more about arbitrage and statistics. Although HFT provides some liquidity describing it as Market Making is something I would not do.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 24 Jun 2016, 14:03

oobers wrote:
emordnilap wrote:Fascinating times.

I wonder how the loss of CAP subsidies is going to pan out (especially for NI - the bulk [87% according to one source] of farmers' income there is subsidy).
I hope farmers will have time to transition away from subsidies and produce a diversity of food for their localities and not so much monoculture for export.

That makes me wonder if you know any farmers, oobers.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 24 Jun 2016, 14:07

We might get rid of the odious rapeseed at last.