EU membership referendum debate thread

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Jun 2016, 11:44

clv101 wrote: The polls don't give a good steer, we need to be considering the likely behaviour of the 'don't knows' who tend to be left out of the headline reporting and how things are likely to change as the decision gets closer - both of these are likely to be bias towards Remain.

That is true. Also the polls do not take into account UK citizens living in the EU who are mainly entitled to vote and may wish to vote to protect their interests where they are. I don't know how many have registered.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Jun 2016, 12:00

Just exactly how much is lost by the UK and gained by the rest of the EU as a result of the common fisheries policy?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Jun 2016, 12:44

Friends of mine moved to Holland about 8 years ago. They have been trying to register for months to vote, and have been beaten by the combination of on-line and paper forms which between them failed to provide a means by which they could register their UK nationality status and and their overseas address, and the fact that they previously haven't been old enough to vote, and so weren't on any electoral roll.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 20 Jun 2016, 12:59

johnhemming2 wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote: It has been said by Farage that UKIP are not aiming to get anyone here to leave.

"pledges" by either campaign really mean nothing. I would not think any campaign has actually given a "pledge". The referendum is about membership of the EU. Actually membership of the EEA gives them rights to stay here.
Do you really think the EU would not have to change the way it behaves if it lost £350 million a week and a member country?
Firstly, we get a rebate so we do not pay that sum. Secondly, on a net per capita contributions basis we contribute about the same as Norway. Hence the EEA option (as proposed by UKIP in the past) you would expect to be financially much the same.

if people vote to leave it should raise concerns with the commission, but does not require in itself for them to change that much. The system automatically adjusts to elect more MEPs from the countries remaining. The UK commissioner would go as would UK attendance at the various ministerial meetings.

So you don't think that if countries started leaving and money stopped rolling in, they might not stop trying to stuff immigration down our throats against the wishes of their populations? I have said just before this murder/terrorism/choose your own label, that if politicians ignore immigration against the peoples wishes it is the immigrants who will suffer - guess what it was a ground zero immigration zealot MP. We have had a week of biased media publicity, blatant electioneering from 'remain' dressed as hand wringing over her death.

Let's imagining a scenario in which 100 non muslim white people gang raped a 13-15 year old. Might it perhaps reach a widespread salacious 'Jimmy Saville' news story until it filled as many hours as the media could milk? Now let's compare and contrast with this current news story:

http://www.snouts-in-the-trough.com/archives/16221

edit: I notice you have to put in a defendants name to get the BBC to show the story, it is not listed at 'Leeds and W Yorkshire' despite being the same time ago as the MP death:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-36559092

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Jun 2016, 12:59

UK and European markets are up over 3% today, supposedly because the polls are showing receding Brexit probability.

The pound has risen 5 cents against the dollar in the last few days.

Oil has recovered over $3 as well.

It is hard not to draw the conclusion that one vile murder has changed the course our European history.

If true - a very different result to a vile murder that happened 102 years ago.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 20 Jun 2016, 16:10

John Oliver has done quite a good piece on Brexit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8

My interview with the Sikh Channel is also on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvB6Eo4p-So

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2016, 18:45

There are many ways to estimate the outcome. This article is fascinating, polls are unlikely to be most accurate prediction:
https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/19/upd ... orecast-6/

Code: Select all

                             Remain % share	Leave % share	Probability Remain 
Betting markets	                  52.0	      48.0	          66.5
Prediction markets			                                       65.6
Citizen forecasts	                52.0	      48.0	          62.1
Expert forecasts	                 55.1	      44.9	          62.0
Volunteer forecasts	              54.3	      45.7	          71.3
Polls	                            48.5	      51.5	          46.0
Poll based models	                50.5	      49.5	          55.0
Non-poll based models	            55.6	      44.4	
Combined forecast &#40;mean&#41;	         52.6	      47.4	          62.3

oobers · Post by **oobers** » 20 Jun 2016, 20:15

This articulates my dilemma vis the EU referendum
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8 ... -you-euref

My rational mind tells me we need a European Union every bit as much as it tells me that the European Union we have is a major block to progress and moving rapidly in the wrong direction.

Logically, therefore I am convinced that the only hope is reform – but I can't vote for it. I can vote to stay and pretend to myself that there might be reform I don't for a second believe is coming. Or I could vote to leave and ensure some kind of change – but which might result in something much worse.

I shall make my decision late – and probably dislike myself either way.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 20 Jun 2016, 21:03

I'll be voting out without being emotional about the eventual outcome. But with a choice like this, not voting is a very understandable option and one which is as equally viable in my opinion.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2016, 21:22

clv101 wrote:William Hill's and Paddy Power's odds have moved toward Remain today, now 0.33 vs 2.25, (or 1/3 vs 9/4 but I hate fractional odds).

Anyone really thinking Leave are going to win, or even that it's a 50/50 has a good reason for betting on Leave this morning!

Odds still moving towards Remain, tonight it's 0.22 vs 3.0.
Anyone who really thinks we're going to Leave can quadruple their money this week by betting on Leave.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2016, 21:52

fuzzy wrote:Do you really think the EU would not have to change the way it behaves if it lost £350 million a week and a member country?

This £350m figure is proving to be quite useful. Everyone who literally hasn't been living in a cave for the last month knows it's a bogus figure - so anyone still using it is knowingly trying to mislead.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 20 Jun 2016, 21:53

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/brexit-o ... ll-1421200

Election expert: 'Leave' win

A respected election expert, Lord Rob Hayward, has said that "the balance of probability is that the nation will vote to leave", saying that polls may be underestimating support for Brexit.

Hayward said Labour supporters have not been motivated to vote "Remain" and polls underestimate "Leave" support among a group of voters he categorises as "mortgaged, married, male, mid-30s-40s with kids".

Hayward correctly warned that polls were underestimating support for the Conservatives ahead of last year's election.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 20 Jun 2016, 21:54

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxTBZamG2nQ

Lord Hayward views on the outcome of the referendum.

His conclusion is that Leave has the slight advantage despite the polls however Remain can still win as well.

Slightly surprising as he was saying for most of the interview how there has been a swing towards Remain.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2016, 22:04

Yeah his 'analysis' seems to suggest Remain but then it went with Leave... but basically he hasn't a clue!

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 20 Jun 2016, 23:00

Car crash radio:

LBC: Osborne admits no plan in case of "Brexit"

This from a Chancellor who hasn't got a forecast right in 6 years.
Shockingly clueless