General Election 2024

[UndercoverElephant]

Three new polls today, each with the Tories on 24% and the Labour lead down to 15%. This is exactly the kind of move I expected in the final few days.

Three more since then with the tories on 22/21/21 and the lead at 19/19/15. Reform on 16 for all 3.

I am so looking forward to this.

[clv101]

Anyone willing to make a specific guess at the results? Here's mine:

Labour majority of ~170 (certainly less than 200)

Lab 39% 410 [380-420]
Con 26% 120 [100-140] (certainly more than 100)
LD 11% 55 [50-65]
Reform 13% 4 [3-6]

[Mark]

Anyone willing to make a specific guess at the results? Here's mine:

Labour majority of ~170 (certainly less than 200)

Lab 39% 410 [380-420]
Con 26% 120 [100-140] (certainly more than 100)
LD 11% 55 [50-65]
Reform 13% 4 [3-6]

I'd wager £10 at William Hill on that....
Although the Bookies seem to think the Tories will get around 100...
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... over-under

[UndercoverElephant]

My hunch, which I am well aware could be very wrong:

Lab 38%
Con 25%
Ref 15%
Lib 11%

Electoral Calculus turns this into:

Lab 432
Con 105
LD 66
Ref 6

I think some of the Labour vote won't bother going to the polling station, given they know a Labour victory is already guaranteed. That may well even happen in seats that Labour aren't guaranteed to win, because they are still guaranteed to win nationally.

[clv101]

The Sun, finally, come out in (lukewarm) support for Labour:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/ ... -a-change/

[Mark]

The Sun, finally, come out in (lukewarm) support for Labour:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/ ... -a-change/

It woz The Sun wot won it !!

[UndercoverElephant]

My hunch, which I am well aware could be very wrong:

Lab 38%
Con 25%
Ref 15%
Lib 11%

Electoral Calculus turns this into:

Lab 432
Con 105
LD 66
Ref 6

FWIW the final Yougov MRP just dropped, and it is almost exactly the same as the above.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... on-victory

Lab 431
Con 102
LD 57
Ref 3

[UndercoverElephant]

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Twee ... 8168798502

FINAL Westminster Voting Intention of #GE2024 for
@Telegraph

Highest ever Reform UK share in a Savanta poll

Lab 39 (=)
Con 20 (-4)
Reform 17 (+4)
LD 10 (=)
Green 5 (+1)
SNP 2 (-1)
Other 7 (=)

2,101 UK adults

2-3 July (chg from 28-30 Jun)

[clv101]

It's kinda interesting how Northern Ireland politics is just *ignored* by mainstream UK media.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's kinda interesting how Northern Ireland politics is just *ignored* by mainstream UK media.

In a sense that ignoring is fully compatible with the GFA. The fate of Northern Ireland is best left to the Irish, north and south, provided there is no major impact on the rest of the UK.

[mr brightside]

Anyone willing to make a specific guess at the results?

The return of The Red Wall. I was stunned that Boris knocked it down in the first place, generations o' t'lads must have been spinning in their graves.

[UndercoverElephant]

Anyone willing to make a specific guess at the results?

The return of The Red Wall. I was stunned that Boris knocked it down in the first place, generations o' t'lads must have been spinning in their graves.

Johnson's victory speech in 2019:

I have a message to all those who voted for us yesterday, especially for those who voted for us Conservatives for the first time.

You may only have lent us your vote, you may not think of yourself as a natural Tory. As I think I said 11 years ago to the people of London, when I was elected in what was thought of as a Labour city - your hand may have quivered over the ballot paper before you put your cross in the Conservative box, and you may intend to return to Labour next time round.

If that is the case, I am humbled that you have put your trust in me and you have put your trust in us.

I, and we, will never take your support for granted. I will make it my mission to work night and day, to work flat-out to prove you right in voting for me this time, and to earn your support in the future.

Judgement Day has come.

[BritDownUnder]

Time for the shy Conservative voter to step up I guess.

On news channels over here it is getting talked about but not much. One thing I was surprised about was that Sir Peter Bottomley is still around and still standing this time.

My father said he will vote for Reform after voting for pretty much every other party in previous elections.

[mr brightside]

The return of The Red Wall. I was stunned that Boris knocked it down in the first place, generations o' t'lads must have been spinning in their graves.

Johnson's victory speech in 2019:

I have a message to all those who voted for us yesterday, especially for those who voted for us Conservatives for the first time.

You may only have lent us your vote, you may not think of yourself as a natural Tory. As I think I said 11 years ago to the people of London, when I was elected in what was thought of as a Labour city - your hand may have quivered over the ballot paper before you put your cross in the Conservative box, and you may intend to return to Labour next time round.

If that is the case, I am humbled that you have put your trust in me and you have put your trust in us.

I, and we, will never take your support for granted. I will make it my mission to work night and day, to work flat-out to prove you right in voting for me this time, and to earn your support in the future.

Judgement Day has come.

Toss t 'buggers in t' coyl oyl!

[dustiswhatweare]

Tactical depleted uranium strike vote delivered, right on X marks the spot.

I am hoping for a more cheerful nation come tomorrow.