General Election Dec 2019 thread

Post by **clv101** » 11 Dec 2019, 19:19

Had a chat with a Tory today, very critical of the state of his party and the embarrassment Johnson has become. He blames Corbyn and his lack of effective opposition. A stronger, more popular Labour Party wouldn't have allowed his party to get into mess it's in today.

Hoped Dan Jarvis would be the next Labour leader.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 19:45

clv101 wrote: A stronger, more popular Labour Party wouldn't have allowed his party to get into mess it's in today.

Except what he means is "a less socialist Labour Party". Sorry, but tories don't get to choose whether the Labour Party is really socialist or tory-lite.

Post by **clv101** » 11 Dec 2019, 19:47

Good point.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 19:58

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... onary-sect

Wow. Peter Oborne not only deserting the tories, but strongly implies he will vote Labour. This election is something else.

One way or another things are going to change tomorrow. Either the tories will win, force brexit through, and then have to face the reality of what follows instead of the mythology. It will be a train wreck if it happens. Or they will lose, and we're heading for a very unusual government and a second referendum.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Dec 2019, 20:21

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Tomorrow is not a non-event. It's the most important election since the war.

Democracy may be dying, but this is not some sort of show election of the sort that happens in some other countries. There is still a chance that Corbyn will become Prime Minister before the year is out. Not the most likely outcome, but far from impossible.
A show election is precisely what it is.

Additionally, I also take note of your cavalier, not to mention oxymoronic, attitude to the dying of democracy with your simultaneously laughable belief that this is the "most important election since the war".

The vote was, is and will always be the most revolutionary weapon the ordinary person ever possesses.
I have no idea what point you are trying to make.

Yeah. Right, of course you don't.

Turns out you are just another bourgeois, liberal, faux-leftie when push has come to shove. However, we all have our lines in the sand where we get to find out who we really are. The likes of Biff Vernon have theirs and the likes of you have yours. That's all.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Dec 2019, 20:27

UndercoverElephant wrote:...force brexit through, and then have to face the reality of what follows.... It will be a train wreck if it happens....

You are an antidemocratic Remainer who is content to see democracy f***ed over in this country in order to stop Brexit. Just admit it finally for F--k's sake.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 20:36

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:...force brexit through, and then have to face the reality of what follows.... It will be a train wreck if it happens....
You are an antidemocratic Remainer who is content to see democracy f***ed over in this country in order to stop Brexit. Just admit it finally for F--k's sake.

I am not a remainer. I voted to leave the EU in 2016, and if there is another brexit referendum, I will probably vote leave again.

Johnson is promising things he can't deliver. You must know that is true. He says he can do a trade deal with the EU in less than 12 months, and it is total bollocks. That is not an argument to cancel brexit, even if some remainers may use it as such. I am merely pointing out that Johnson is making unrealistic promises. Not for the first time, either.

You really don't understand me, and it is not for want of explaining.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 Dec 2019, 21:27

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... -forecast/

My final forecast.

Will see what happens.

What will be will be.

Post by **clv101** » 11 Dec 2019, 22:31

I might as well make a forecast.

Tory majority: -2 (+/- 10) so somewhere in the range -12 to 8.

I think he's going to fall short by a whisker, and be forced into another minority administration. I also think we'll be having another general election before the end of 2023.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 Dec 2019, 22:35

Final polls*

BMG
Con 41, Lab 32, LD14

ComRes
Con 41, Lab 36, LD12

ICM
Con 42, Lab 36, LD12

Opinium
Con 45, Lab 33, LD12

Panelbase
Con 43, Lab 34, LD11

NCP
Con 43, Lab 33, LD12

Kantar
Con 44, Lab 32, LD12

Deltapoll
Con 45, Lab 35, LD10

YouGov
Con 43, Lab 34, LD12

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 12 Dec 2019, 08:27

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index. ... ion-night/

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2019, 08:45

clv101 wrote:I might as well make a forecast.

Tory majority: -2 (+/- 10) so somewhere in the range -12 to 8.

I think he's going to fall short by a whisker, and be forced into another minority administration. I also think we'll be having another general election before the end of 2023.

This is very close to my own best guess, although I'd tend slightly towards the tories. I think tory majority of 5 +/- 10. Range of -5 to +15.

And Labour will take Hastings.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2019, 08:47

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Final polls*

BMG
Con 41, Lab 32, LD14

ComRes
Con 41, Lab 36, LD12

ICM
Con 42, Lab 36, LD12

Opinium
Con 45, Lab 33, LD12

Panelbase
Con 43, Lab 34, LD11

NCP
Con 43, Lab 33, LD12

Kantar
Con 44, Lab 32, LD12

Deltapoll
Con 45, Lab 35, LD10

YouGov
Con 43, Lab 34, LD12

And so they converge, just like last time. These were the final seat predictions from the various pollsters at this time in 2017:

https://i.gyazo.com/d71d2afab0274f577b6 ... 27d56c.png

Apart from yougov, the consensus prediction was a tory majority of about 60.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2019, 11:01

Several sources reporting massive turnout in London and other big cities. Unprecedented queues. Might be because people don't want to vote in the dark tonight, but could also be a historically high turnout.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Dec 2019, 11:26

At 7:01am I was fifth in the queue. My dog was first dog at the polling station by a couple of minutes.

Very hopeful of kicking out the Tory in this safe Tory seat.

Long queues in Cambridge polling stations, but the Tories don't stand a chance there.