General Election June 8

[PS_RalphW]

Queens speech delayed. How long will the queen wait before telling may to put up or get out?

[RenewableCandy]

The GFA shouldn't bar any NI party from engaging in politics like any other British party.

No, but a clause near the top *does* stipulate that the Westminster government has to be neutral wrt Northern Ireland. Which it won't be if the DUP are part of a ruling set-up...

[UndercoverElephant]

Queens speech delayed. How long will the queen wait before telling may to put up or get out?

Somebody just posted this on facebook:

And apparently the DUP do not have ANY Westminster seats yet, as they can't take up their seats and vote until the NI Assembly has met and it can't do that for constitutional reasons, re Power Sharing Agreement, Brexit and Art50 I believe. So they can't vote with May,

Anybody know if this is correct?

[RenewableCandy]

I do know that NI are struggling to put a government of their own together, or at least they were before this election happened!

And in the event of their failure to do that, it reverts to Direct Rule.

So your friend might be on to something.

[UndercoverElephant]

She's now posted this:

Not sure about the technical details re Assembly, but remember people saying (I think between Art50 and June that there was a big hiccup there. PS here it is, from Frances Viner:

This is where social media is so handy.
'MAY is lying, the DUP cannot legally support her until they sit in Stormont, as until then they are MLA controllers (MP's in Westminster) in name only. They risk losing their seats in just a few weeks time.
There is a serious question at the moment, are the DUP MLA's allowed to Vote in Westminster as the Result of the Good Friday Agreement?
I say this as the Northern Ireland Assembly collapsed earlier this year, Forcing an election in March. The deadline for the formation at Stormont was missed.
Which would force another election, however Theresa May called a general election, which serves the same purpose.
The DUP, Sinn Fein etc, must agree to resume at Stormont by the 29th June otherwise it must have another election there, or total control is passed to the Mainland.
So for the moment the MLA's are in name only, the DUP do not have a right to Vote in Westminster unless they take up their role in Stormont, however given that Arlene Foster (head of the DUP) still refuses to step down over her bodging the green fuels subsidy (Will cost N.I over £400 Million), the new Assembly is unlikely to happen.
The DUP are acting like they are MP's prior to the Good Friday Agreement, it just does not work like that now, you either take office or lose your seat.
So MAY is lying, the DUP cannot legally support her until they sit in Stormont, as until then they are MLA controllers (MP's in Westminster) in name only. They risk losing their seats in just a few weeks time.
One is tied in with the other.
SHARE SHARE SHARE SHARE SHARE SHARE.'
Like
· Reply · 7 mins

[RenewableCandy]

I must admit, I had NO IDEA the feck-up went so deep.

Ireland, I stand in awe.

[Little John]

UE, Please post the link to the facebook post here

[UndercoverElephant]

UE, Please post the link to the facebook post here

It is in a closed group ("Hastings Decides").

[Little John]

UE, Please post the link to the facebook post here

It is in a closed group ("Hastings Decides").

ok cheers

[adam2]

Queens speech delayed. How long will the queen wait before telling may to put up or get out?

Somebody just posted this on facebook:

And apparently the DUP do not have ANY Westminster seats yet, as they can't take up their seats and vote until the NI Assembly has met and it can't do that for constitutional reasons, re Power Sharing Agreement, Brexit and Art50 I believe. So they can't vote with May,

Anybody know if this is correct?

AFAIK this is not correct. Once an MP has been elected, then subject to swearing allegiance to the sovereign, I believe that they can take up their seat.
When the election results were announced, including those seats won by the DUP, I do not recall anyone saying "Oh but they cant take up those seats yet "

[Little John]

Be that as it may, it is surely politically unsustainable to have the DUP take its seats in Parliament, whilst Sinn Fein are unable to exercises their voting rights in a (currently) non existent Stormont.

Such a move by the DUP would more or less force Sinn Fein to take up their seats in Westminster would it not?

[UndercoverElephant]

Let's assume the Tory-DUP deal breaks down (and there's a growing list of reasons why this might happen). The tories will still be desperate to avoid another election straight away, especially with Theresa May as leader. But they'll also be reluctant to immediately hold a leadership contest either, because doing so would lead open civil war within the party - look what happened last time with all the candidates except May taking each other or themselves out. This time it would be all about Europe, with the various factions radically disagreeing about what sort of Brexit we should be aiming for (not just because negotiations are supposed to start next week, but because they'll need a position to campaign on at the expected election).

If the tories don't/can't bite the bullet - if they can't govern, but won't call another election - then what happens?

Until 2015, the answer was that if they couldn't get a Queen's Speech through parliament it effectively counts as a vote of no confidence, leading to another election. Or if some other sort of impasse arose mid-parliament, then if the worst came to the worst, the Queen could step in to dissolve parliament and call an election. But Cameron and Clegg's 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act got rid of both those escape routes, for the explicit purpose of making minority governments more stable. Nobody considered, perhaps, the possibility of a minority government that was both paralysed and unwilling to call an election?

The final killer here? It all ends up with the DUP and Sinn Fein holding the power. the situation would be this: the Queen can't dissolve parliament, the Tories won't dissolve Parliament, but the whole of the opposition minus the Irish parties is still 4 short of being able to defeat the tories in a vote of no confidence. The numbers would be:

Tories: 318
Lab+LD+Grn+SNP+PC:314

So assuming Sinn Fein continue to stay out of it, the DUP would then hold the power previously residing with the Queen. It would be up to them to choose whether to side with the opposition and force another election, or side with the tories. If they choose the latter then we will have reached a total constitutional impasse, with no way out.

Presumably, the people who are currently deciding what the hell to do about this mess are aware of all this.

And this:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/st ... arliaments

Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, “confidence votes” have been explicitly drawn to exclude votes on the Budget or the Queen’s Speech. A government only falls if it loses a vote of no confidence. It no longer falls if it loses a major vote, a Budget vote or even the Queen’s Speech.

This obviously increases the leverage of the DUP – and Labour’s ability to harry the government day-to-day. The DUP can hold the government up, by backing them in confidence votes. But they can also let them down by deserting them on essentially everything else to secure bigger concessions from the Conservative Party.

Far from being trapped by the Conservatives, the DUP have more leverage over them than a minor party has ever enjoyed in a hung parliament before.

[UndercoverElephant]

Be that as it may, it is surely politically unsustainable to have the DUP take its seats in Parliament, whilst Sinn Fein are unable to exercises their voting rights in a (currently) non existent Stormont.

Such a move by the DUP would more or less force Sinn Fein to take up their seats in Westminster would it not?

Nothing can force Sinn Fein to take their seats.

[Little John]

Be that as it may, it is surely politically unsustainable to have the DUP take its seats in Parliament, whilst Sinn Fein are unable to exercises their voting rights in a (currently) non existent Stormont.

Such a move by the DUP would more or less force Sinn Fein to take up their seats in Westminster would it not?

Nothing can force Sinn Fein to take their seats.

I don't mean legally force them. I mean, in political terms, when faced with a choice between not taking up their seats in the UK parliament on grounds of principle but, in practice, being faced with a DUP voting on matters relating to Northern Ireland in that same Uk parliament, Sinn Fein would surely not stand by and allow that to continue unchallenged. And the only way to do that (in the absence of a functioning Stormont) would be to take up their seats in the UK parliament and cast their own votes.

Unless I am missing something?

[johnhemming2]

The oath of allegiance