General Election June 8

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 09 Jun 2017, 16:24

Well the Tories are getting into bed with the DUP. Craig Murray has an illuminating piece about them:

Craig Murray: Tories Leap into the Unpopularity Abyss

Craig Murray wrote: The DUP are corrupt, homophobic, racist and above all religious bigots of the worst kind. The nastiest people in politics. The utterly discredited Theresa May refuses to resign and intends to continue to rule over us with the support of this ugly faction. Popular support for the Tory government is going to plunge to unprecedented levels. This gruesome malformation of a bigots’ alliance between Brexiteers is not going to last long as a government, and the popular retribution will be massive

Add in the record amount of personal debt and the house price declines - it's going to be one hell of a rough ride coming up folks

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 09 Jun 2017, 16:50

Yep, as discussed ad nauseum on this forum a total clusterf**k.

The dupers have been salivating at this prospect for years and bound to overreach themselves. The general British public may be quite shocked when they are exposed to the real corrupt and greedy backwoodsmen of UK politics.

hashtag dupers

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Jun 2017, 16:57

There's a scandal breaking in Hastings. Significant numbers of new voters are reporting being turned away from polling stations because those polling stations did not have up-to-date lists of voters. Given that Amber Rudd only won it by 346 votes, this could lead to a legal challenge to the result. At the moment the Labour candidate is trying to find out how many people were affected.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 09 Jun 2017, 17:11

UndercoverElephant wrote:There's a scandal breaking in Hastings. Significant numbers of new voters are reporting being turned away from polling stations because those polling stations did not have up-to-date lists of voters. Given that Amber Rudd only won it by 346 votes, this could lead to a legal challenge to the result. At the moment the Labour candidate is trying to find out how many people were affected.

Ironic given that the organising council for the vote is Labour run!! No wonder Amber Rudd thanked the Council Leader in her acceptance speach!!

I find our own result strange as Richard Benyon, Conservative, who has been criticised locally for supporting the government over Brexit when he was a Remainer and we voted to remain locally, has increased his majority over the LibDem candidate. I was expecting to see him replaced!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Jun 2017, 20:18

kenneal - lagger wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:There's a scandal breaking in Hastings. Significant numbers of new voters are reporting being turned away from polling stations because those polling stations did not have up-to-date lists of voters. Given that Amber Rudd only won it by 346 votes, this could lead to a legal challenge to the result. At the moment the Labour candidate is trying to find out how many people were affected.
Ironic given that the organising council for the vote is Labour run!! No wonder Amber Rudd thanked the Council Leader in her acceptance speach!!

The Labour candidate is the leader of the council.

Post by **clv101** » 09 Jun 2017, 21:35

Just when it was looking like we had reached the limits of Theresa May's incompetence, she shacks up with the DUP! The association with these nutters can only inflict more damage on her party. In many areas the DUP are worse than UKIP and it threatens to upset Westminster's delicate relationship with Northern Ireland.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 09 Jun 2017, 21:36

Power is about numbers.

Post by **clv101** » 09 Jun 2017, 21:57

johnhemming2 wrote:Power is about numbers.

What's you take on May's chances over the next 12 months? How plausible is it for her to hang on after this result?

Osborne's view:

How many Tories have lost confidence in her?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 09 Jun 2017, 23:34

The DUP are a bunch of religious, bigoted, corrupt nutters who, on social issues at least, make a party like UKIP look positively moderate by comparison. That much is a given.

They are also, like Sinn Fein, the political arm of paramilitaries

By relying on the DUP, it will be impossible for the Conservatives to claim impartiality in terms of Northern Ireland politics. This, in turn, could undo decades of work on the peace process in Ireland. As an aside, it also makes a sick mockery of the Tories' smears against Corbyn as being a Northern Irish terrorist sympathiser, given that they are about to get into bed, at the highest level of government, with the political arm of a Northern Irish Paramilitary outfit.

At the moment, Sinn Fein, the political opposite to the DUP, have seven MPs who could, in principle, take their seats in the house of commons and vote on UK wide business. They have, hitherto, chosen to not take those seats and to never vote on such business. But, with the proposed supply and confidence arrangement between the Tories and the DUP, this may change Sinn Fein's position with regards to voting in the UK parliament.

In short, May's deal with the DUP is playing with fire and could lead to the entire Northern Irish peace process unravelling.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 10 Jun 2017, 08:43

Little John wrote: In short, May's deal with the DUP is playing with fire and could lead to the entire Northern Irish peace process unravelling.

It could also lead to Theresa May's position unravelling. She's currently dependent on the DUP, so in effect the DUP can get pretty much what they want out of her, which is highly likely to have a negative effect on Northern Irish politics. But she's also in the position where just 2 by-elections losses leave Sinn Fein capable of siding with the opposition in a vote of no confidence and forcing a new election. 2 by-election losses away from Sinn Fein being able to hold a gun to the head of both the tories and the DUP (sorry about the unfortunate metaphor).

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 10 Jun 2017, 09:04

Sinn Fein have confirmed they won't go into parliament. It's a oath thing.

Regarding the DUP, it's about numbers and power. The really significant thing about tge DUP is their support for a softer Brexit not their antiquated views on gay marriage (although positively progressive conpared to the majority of Muslims who think homosexuality should be illegal!).

A Norway style softer Brexit deal, no hard border is probably on the cards and is much closer to Labour's position. Expect a massive backlash from the Tory Right but I cannot see how the Tories can push through a hard brexit. They're isn't the votes in the Commons.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 10 Jun 2017, 09:38

Lord Beria3 wrote:Sinn Fein have confirmed they won't go into parliament. It's a oath thing.

And you think they'd stick to that if the DUP were getting the tories to do something that Sinn Fein really didn't like, and Sinn Fein had the power to stop it??

A Norway style softer Brexit deal, no hard border is probably on the cards and is much closer to Labour's position. Expect a massive backlash from the Tory Right but I cannot see how the Tories can push through a hard brexit. They're isn't the votes in the Commons.

Yes, but there is a problem here. The EU does not want to give the UK a decent deal, and if what they end up offering is significantly worse to remaining in the EU then even a "soft brexit" may be policially non-viable. As these negotiations draw to a close, the option of unilaterally revoking Article 50 will always remain on the table.

It is a FUBAR, Beria. This "in the middle" position isn't just going to provoke a massive backlash from the tory right - it is also going to provoke a massive backlash from remainers who will argue that if we're going to keep freedom of movement and remain in the single market, we might as well just stay in the EU. Especially if leaving carries a £100bn price tag! What would we be paying that £100bn for? FUBAR!

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 10 Jun 2017, 11:19

After the stunning turnaround by Labour in the election that very nearly led to a Labour majority, I see that people from the Remain side of the EU referendum are now crawling all over social media crowing about how this all means that Brexit can be reversed.

They should be very careful. The only reason so many ex labour voters who voted for the likes of UKIP or, even, the Conservatives at the last election came back to Labour this time around is because of Labour's unequivocal acceptance of BREXIT.

It wont take much to push them back away.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 10 Jun 2017, 12:01

Lord Beria3 wrote:Sinn Fein have confirmed they won't go into parliament. It's a oath thing.

Regarding the DUP, it's about numbers and power. The really significant thing about tge DUP is their support for a softer Brexit not their antiquated views on gay marriage (although positively progressive conpared to the majority of Muslims who think homosexuality should be illegal!).

A Norway style softer Brexit deal, no hard border is probably on the cards and is much closer to Labour's position. Expect a massive backlash from the Tory Right but I cannot see how the Tories can push through a hard brexit. They're isn't the votes in the Commons.

Norway needs access to a free market because they are exporters of petroleum and import charges would add to their prices. The UK is importers and therefore the EU needs us not to add tarriffs - not the other way around.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 10 Jun 2017, 13:58

318+10=328
324-7=317
(325+324+1=650)
(taking out the speaker)

(now take out the deputy speakers)

Government 327
Opposition 315 (two Labour deputy speakers)

Hence if there is a vote of confidence the government should win by 12.

They can lose all sorts of other votes without falling as a government.

I don't think there will be that many government by elections (although each one could lose them two off the majority).