General Election Dec 2019 thread

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12109 ... ter-voters

One for you LJ.

[UndercoverElephant]

Westminster Voting Intention: CON: 39% (-2) LAB: 33% (+5) Via @BMGResearch , 27-29 Nov. Changes w/ 19-21 Nov.

There are other polls in the pipeline showing significant Labour surge, while all the other parties are steadily dropping. This is not over. Even on these figures, with tactical voting taken into consideration the tories would struggle to get across the line.

[clv101]

I actually went to a Labour Party meeting this afternoon, first time ever. 200+ people filled the largest building in this small town. Very powerful speeches, a really emotional atmosphere, no doubt about how important this election is. Lots of talk about NHS, housing, food banks, education, climate, energy... Zero, literally zero, mention on Brexit except in a comment that "Johnson doesn't have anything to offer except Brexit".

The two seats in SW Wales are both Tory held, Tory/Lab marginals (one with just 314 majority) last time. With greens stepping down, and a significant block of Plaid voters seemingly willing *lend* their vote to Labour, the feeling in the room was that Labour could gain these two seats.

Now, of course this was a Labour meeting, with the express purpose of building enthusiasm ahead of the weekend's campaigning activities - but it was genuine, there was substance, there weren't lies.

[UndercoverElephant]

I actually went to a Labour Party meeting this afternoon, first time ever. 200+ people filled the largest building in this small town. Very powerful speeches, a really emotional atmosphere, no doubt about how important this election is. Lots of talk about NHS, housing, food banks, education, climate, energy... Zero, literally zero, mention on Brexit except in a comment that "Johnson doesn't have anything to offer except Brexit".

The two seats in SW Wales are both Tory held, Tory/Lab marginals (one with just 314 majority) last time. With greens stepping down, and a significant block of Plaid voters seemingly willing *lend* their vote to Labour, the feeling in the room was that Labour could gain these two seats.

Now, of course this was a Labour meeting, with the express purpose of building enthusiasm ahead of the weekend's campaigning activities - but it was genuine, there was substance, there weren't lies.

You live in Pembrokeshire? Mind if I ask where?

I agree it is probable that Labour will take Preseli. Perhaps not the other one.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... lapse.html

Boris Johnson 'is in danger of mirroring Theresa May's collapse': Tory fears of an election meltdown that echoes of 2017 grow as the PM's predicted Commons majority plunges from 80 to just 12 seats in a week

The Daily Fail has changed its tune. They are worried.

[clv101]

I'm in West Carmarthenshire, pretty close to Pembs though.

Boris Johnson 'is in danger of mirroring Theresa May's collapse': Tory fears of an election meltdown that echoes of 2017 grow as the PM's predicted Commons majority plunges from 80 to just 12 seats in a week

The Tory campaign actually needs articles like this (hence why the Mail published it) to try and counter the compliancy from people like Matthew Parris, feeling they can now vote LibDem.

[Lord Beria3]

Agree - if Tories don't get a majority we are likely to get PM Corbyn.

The Parris ex-Tories of the world will need to think about that when they vote liberal.

[Lord Beria3]

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=t ... r%5Eauthor

Deltapoll approval ratings is a key tracker for me.

Latest show Boris has reversed some of the fall from last week and Corbyn has gone negative again.

The reason I track these approval ratings is that the collapse of May and surge in Corbyn had a close correlation with the national polling and the eventual result - e.g. hung parliament.

The recent mini-bounce in Labour polling, into the early 30's, was consistent with the improvement in Corbyn's approval ratings among the wider electorate.

According to deltapoll the gap between the two leaders has returned to 40% - that should be sufficient for a Tory majority.*

* - assuming that doesn't materially change in the next 12 days.

[Lord Beria3]

https://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2019/11/ ... s-not.html

Ian Smart latest blog post.

[UndercoverElephant]

Westminster Voting Intention: CON: 42% (+1) LAB: 35% (+1) LDM: 13% (=) BXP: 3% (-1) Via @ICMResearch , 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.

This is the first poll to put Labour on 35%.

[clv101]

Westminster Voting Intention: CON: 42% (+1) LAB: 35% (+1) LDM: 13% (=) BXP: 3% (-1) Via @ICMResearch , 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.

This is the first poll to put Labour on 35%.

I hadn't realised just how badly UKIP did in 2017, only 1.8%. Seems BP might have more influence this time, making it slightly harder to pick up new seats. I can see Tories losing a few seats from Scotland and Wales. I still think a Tory majority is most likely, but doubt it'll be more than 20 seats.

[PS_RalphW]

I would find it amusing if 20 or more of those shiny new Tory MPs still refused to back Johnson's Brexit deal.

[Little John]

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/11/2 ... democracy/

The disinfectant of democracy

Public opinion is forcing Labour and the Lib Dems to temper their anti-democratic elitism.

Democracy is such a powerful force, such a force for reason and good sense, that it is already radically shaking up public life in the UK even before any of us has actually voted. Election day might still be two weeks away, but the very process of democratic engagement, of canvassing and discussion, has already improved political life. Primarily through taming the more vulgar elitist instincts of the supposedly progressive parties, Labour and the Lib Dems.

That has been the most striking gain of the past couple of weeks of electioneering – the anti-Brexit, anti-democratic elitism of the ‘left’ parties has fallen apart, or at least experienced a severe crisis, under the glare of democratic opinion and the judgement of the people.

Witness how both Labour and the Lib Dems have announced fairly radical changes in their electoral strategies over the past 48 hours. The Lib Dems went into this election on an explicitly anti-democratic ticket. Under the banner of ‘Stop Brexit’, and sometimes ‘Bollocks to Brexit’, their big idea was to revoke Brexit entirely – that is, to cancel the largest democratic vote in British history. They were cock of the walk. This is a brilliant, radical platform to stand on, they assured themselves. The more Brexitphobic wing of the liberal media cheered them on.

But now the Lib Dems are backtracking. They’re ditching the revoke position in favour of arguing for a second referendum. Why? Because they have discovered that most ordinary people find the idea of trashing a democratic vote repugnant, immoral and illiberal.

It has been a joy, to those of us who believe in democracy, to watch the Lib Dem campaign fall apart. Jo Swinson was greeted by stony silence on the recent ‘Leaders Special’ of Question Time. She was challenged by Remain-voting members of the audience who said it was disgraceful simply to revoke the referendum result. On doorsteps, too, Lib Dem canvassers have encountered people who think revoking a democratic vote is a wicked thing to do, and would set a potentially tyrannical precedent. Polls have found that the more voters see of Swinson, the less they like her. Sure, that could be because she is quite irritating, but it will also be because her message – ‘Cancel the largest vote ever’ – strikes so many people as intolerable. The Lib Dems have suffered in the polls.

What we have here is an anti-democratic wing of the political establishment being brought down a peg or two by public opinion. The Lib Dems’ anti-Brexit elitism could not survive contact with the people. In their echo chambers and at their dinner parties, the Lib Dems’ idea of unilaterally revoking a mass democratic act probably sounded like a great idea. But upon exposure to the more engaged and reasoned force of public opinion, to the wisdom of the crowd, it stood exposed as a foul and backward opinion. The disinfectant of democratic opinion revealed the rot at the heart of the Lib Dem campaign.

A similar thing has happened to Labour. In response to polls suggesting the Tories could win an overall majority, Labour is changing tack. It is going to devote more time to winning over its Leave voters, many of whom have indicated that they won’t vote for Labour this time because of its betrayal of Brexit and its promise of a second referendum.

The party will push its more Leave-sympathising spokespeople to the forefront of its campaigning. It will send people to the Midlands and the north to engage with Leave-voting constituencies. And it will try to convince voters, in the words of the BBC, that a Labour government’s second referendum would ‘not be an attempt to remain in the EU by the backdoor’.

Labour, like the Lib Dems, has discovered that the demos does not take kindly to anti-democratic policies. Labour has discovered, far too late in the day, of course, that its despicable abandonment of its working-class Leave constituencies in favour of cosying up to the woke bourgeoise of graduate activist circles and the Remainer middle classes in the south of England is likely to cost it dearly. Its cynical reneging on its own 2017 promise to uphold the referendum result, its reneging on democracy itself, has crashed against the pro-democratic sentiments of ordinary people, and Labour is desperately trying to firefight this mess of its own clueless, aloof making.

Of course, Labour is still lying to working-class constituencies. It is lying when it says its second referendum won’t be ‘Remain by the backdoor’. That is exactly what it will be. Jeremy Corbyn and others have made it crystal clear that their second referendum would be a choice between a deal involving a Customs Union and ties to the Single Market or Remain. That is, it would be a choice between Remain or Remain.

Worse than lying to their erstwhile working-class voters, Labour is demeaning them too. Its new strategy is to make the working classes realise that there are more important issues than Brexit and sovereignty. As Owen Jones says, Labour should win over Brexit voters by talking to them about ‘investment in creaking public services’. This amounts to saying ‘We won’t respect your democratic votes, but we will throw money at your communities’. It is a deeply paternalistic strategy, denuding working-class voters of their democratic agency, akin to when bosses in the past would offer gifts to their workers if they voted the right way.

Labour and the Lib Dems have of course not changed their strategy to such an extent that democrats can now support them. On the contrary, both parties still want to make null and void the vote for Brexit and force the idiotic masses to vote again, with a degraded, smaller choice this time. But the shift in their strategies nonetheless tells us a larger story about how utterly disconnected these political elites have become and how much their worldview grates with the public. In these past few days we have witnessed democracy in action – a distant, technocratic establishment being forced into retreat by an engaged and principled crowd. Such democratic pressure must be sustained right through to the vote itself, so that all politicians in this country understand that the people will never tolerate the trashing of a democratic vote.

[UndercoverElephant]

I would find it amusing if 20 or more of those shiny new Tory MPs still refused to back Johnson's Brexit deal.

I don't think that is likely, given that they have all signed up to it already.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-gro ... -190382289

Worth watching.

Poltico briefing today reporting both Tory and labour camps see mass voter defections from labour to Tories in Midlands and the north.

Good news if true for the Tories!