What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
The Conservative Party could be in line to lose 20 seats and Labour gain nearly 30 in next week’s general election, according to new modelling by one of the country’s leading pollsters.
YouGov’s first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the election result predicts that the Tories would fall short of an overall majority by 16 seats, leading to a hung parliament.
But, ah, yes, 100 seat tory majority, yes....
If this is the result, we are heading for an omnishambles. Even Lab+SNP+LD would be 9 short of a majority, with no other obvious coalition likely.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 31 May 2017, 01:30, edited 1 time in total.
Little John wrote:What is becoming increasingly clear to me is that May has something very brittle about her personality. She looked in that interview like she was going to explode on one or two occasions. She does not look like she is coping too well psychologically. There is something of Gordon Brown about her.
Yes. They both "inherited" power, albeit in rather different situations, from a more charismatic person who was more emotionally in touch with the electorate, they both then sought to stamp their own authority on the situation, and both fluffed it under pressure. Gordon Brown screwed it up by making it known he was going to call an election and then chickening out because of some negative polls, Theresa May called and election after saying she wouldn't, then chickened out of what was actually her best policy because of some negative polls. I think the tories would actually being doing better in the polls if she hadn't U-turned, and I think Labour would have done better if Brown had gone through with the autumn election he chickened out of. Both also have a tendency to blame other people for their own failings, to the point of looking totally ridiculous.
UE, certainly agree that it has been a poor Tory campaign. Also not surprised that Corbyn has done better then expected, I predicted as such in my blog last year where I wrote that Corbyns economic populism would be popular with ordinary voters.
However I also wrote that his open door views on immigration and general softness on national security will be his undoing when it comes to a ge. I still think that is the case despite the tightening of the polls.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
We basically have 1 week left and whilst it is certainly a possibility that the polls will significantly narrow further into small majority/hung parliament territory we certainly aren't there yet.
My understanding of the Ashdon modelling is that it captures the likely result of the marginal seats which will be key to this, like every other ge.
I do think that Labour will get a better vote share then Ed Miliband in 2015 which will be a good result for Corbyn. It will increase his chances of surviving the inevitable leadership challenge.
It would be naive to think that the advanced plans by the Labour PLP to get rid of Corbyn will be shelved just because he wasn't a disaster on the campaign trail.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
If he does get a larger vote share than Miliband, it'll be nigh-on impossible for him to be successfully challenged for leadership. The malcontents will literally just have to wait for him to resign/retire.
With the blessed St Teresa stamping her foot and sulking and sending the odious and barking Amber Rudd along to the leaders debate tonight it really looks as if she really wants to loose the election for some reason. I wonder what that reason might be?
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
Oh, I think she does want to win it more than is healthy for any human to want to win anything. But, like Gordon Brown, she is psychologically unsuited to the kind of public, think-on-your-feet debating required in a general election. Thus, the Conservatives are stuck with managing the situation as best they can. Which is to say, not very well.
A Labour government won’t be perfect, it will be operating within a system that opposes its new, manifest agenda to serve the people it will be elected to govern.
Jeremy Corbyn won’t be perfect, he is a human being. We have a chance to elect a politician who is committed to serving the people of Britain. To supporting the NHS, public services and educating the young people to whom the future belongs.
Electing the Tories for another five years, to throw the opportunity for change into the distant indeterminate wasteland of 2022 would be an act of collective self-loathing bordering on mass sadomasochism.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
....A glance across the Atlantic demonstrates what happens when the left rejects the popular emergence of a caring socialist leader in favour of the well-groomed centre. Denied the opportunity for meaningful change, the American people went for the sugar rush high you get from pushing the ‘f*ck it’ button.....
So, what does this election and the future have in store? As a starting point, look at the scores for which party the electorate trusts on the economy and which leader they want to see as Prime Minister. There has never been an election where the party and leader that is behind on these has gone on to win. May’s lead is still almost double that of Corbyn’s on both counts.
Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov.
Interesting analysis from a guy with a track record of accurately predicting election/referendum results.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
