General Election June 8

[woodburner]

a key word

This is rather fun. Have a play at the polling and the projected outcome.

edit your post and put the url in a key word so it is possible for people to read the rest of the page

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article59170.html

Nadeem's latest on the general elections.

This guy as a perfect track record of forecasting elections...

The running average of the opinion polls has seen a narrowing in the Tory lead from a high of 20% at the start of the election campaign to 17% 2 weeks and currently standing at 13%, with less than 2 weeks to go the trend trajectory implies that the Tory polls lead could be cut further to 10% by polling day.

Using the election calculus model, assuming that the Tories are on 45% and Labour 35% on election day, the Tories will get a 80 seat majority.

That is funny enough my initial gut instinct which I noted on this forum when the ge was announced of what the eventual Tory majority would be.

Nadeem will be updating earlier to the election with his final forecast which will be based on the average of the opinion polls.

I will publish that when it was released here.

[Lord Beria3]

What do people think the Lib Dems will do?

I have a bet with a friend that the Lib Dems will lose seats this general election. What's the consensus on this forum?

[clv101]

What do people think the Lib Dems will do?

I have a bet with a friend that the Lib Dems will lose seats this general election. What's the consensus on this forum?

Initially I thought they'd pick up a good few... but now I'm not so sure. Farron has been particularly unimpressive. I won't be surprised if they made no gains.

[UndercoverElephant]

What do people think the Lib Dems will do?

I have a bet with a friend that the Lib Dems will lose seats this general election. What's the consensus on this forum?

Initially I thought they'd pick up a good few... but now I'm not so sure. Farron has been particularly unimpressive. I won't be surprised if they made no gains.

He's as inspiring as a wet biscuit. A leader of the LibDems who has a problem with gays and abortion is a walking oxymoron, but I also think his position on Brexit is nothing like as popular as the LDs were hoping it would be.

However, I suspect they may pick up a few seats on balance, because of a combination of a re-appearance of anti-tory tactical voting, and tories staying at home because of the dementia tax.

[raspberry-blower]

Tory Party Omnishambles redux:

Indy: Conservatives cancel campaign relaunch as Labour cuts lead

That Omnishambles quote

As for the LD - I agree with UE that they may well pick up a few seats from tactical voting and may get another shot at getting PR onto the statute books. However they will be punching above their political weight and Tim Nice-but-dim inspires zero confidence.

[clv101]

If they win, the Conservatives will change how planning law relates to fracking. Some drilling will be automatically allowed under new 'permitted development' rights and major planning decisions will be removed from local councils. Oversight from Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency will be removed and placed in a new (presumably seriously pro-) 'shale regulator'.

Fracking is a seriously bad idea on many levels: It represents a significant new source of greenhouse gas emissions (both fugitive CH4 and CO2) just when we (both nationally and globally) are committed to reduce emissions. It represents local pollution threats ranging from ground water contamination to increased traffic and noise. It entrenches our addiction to legacy fossil fuels, diverting vital investment away from the necessary energy transition.

Labour on the other hand, will ban fracking in the UK. This is one of many issues where there is clear water between the Tories and Labour. History will only judge one position positively and it WON'T be the Tories. On 8th June we can vote to ban fracking in the UK, as it already is in Scotland, France, Germany, Bulgaria and four Canadian provinces.

[vtsnowedin]

If they win, the Conservatives will change how planning law relates to fracking. Some drilling will be automatically allowed under new 'permitted development' rights and major planning decisions will be removed from local councils. Oversight from Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency will be removed and placed in a new (presumably seriously pro-) 'shale regulator'.

Fracking is a seriously bad idea on many levels: It represents a significant new source of greenhouse gas emissions (both fugitive CH4 and CO2) just when we (both nationally and globally) are committed to reduce emissions. It represents local pollution threats ranging from ground water contamination to increased traffic and noise. It entrenches our addiction to legacy fossil fuels, diverting vital investment away from the necessary energy transition.

Labour on the other hand, will ban fracking in the UK. This is one of many issues where there is clear water between the Tories and Labour. History will only judge one position positively and it WON'T be the Tories. On 8th June we can vote to ban fracking in the UK, as it already is in Scotland, France, Germany, Bulgaria and four Canadian provinces.

You may well ban fracking today but will those laws still be on the books ten or fifteen years from now if fuel supplies become inadequate and people are freezing in their dark homes? All some energy company will have to say is 'We can turn the lights back on and make your home warm and toasty if you let us frack' and if a majority is in the dark the tide will turn.

[Lurkalot]

I have to agree with VT's last comment , even if labour get in and ban fracking they won't be in government for ever and the gas is always going to be there ready and waiting.
I heard this on the news recently and while it's a more local issue than the general election it did make me wonder , strange bedfellows and all that...
http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/1530449 ... lition___/

[clv101]

Whether or not we extract shale gas in 10, 20 or 30 years time is a question for 10, 20 or 30 years time. The question before us now is whether we extract shale gas now to which the only sensible answer is no.

[adam2]

What do people think the Lib Dems will do?

I have a bet with a friend that the Lib Dems will lose seats this general election. What's the consensus on this forum?

I expect the lib dems to pick up a few seats, but only because they did so badly last time, it cant get any worse surely !

[Lord Beria3]

Well, I think they could do worse. Labour are draining support from their electoral base.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... ction.html

Dan Hodges, a right-of-centre Labour supporter is always worth reading (even if I don't always agree with him).

"Corbyn could have restarted the campaign by pivoting back to the ‘dementia tax’, or the NHS. But spurred on by his Stop The War acolytes, he wrapped himself in the bloodied-shroud of the war on terror. And unwittingly framed the choice before the British people.

In the short term their reaction to his speech may actually be positive. The narrative that we should ‘keep out of other people’s fights’ is seductive. But in two weeks’ time it will have been replaced by a simple question – when the next Salman Abedi is in the RAF’s sights, which of the two candidates for PM is most likely to pull the trigger?

Out beyond the liberal enclave of Islington, Labour MPs know the answer. As one told me: ‘The British public will forgive Theresa May for U-turning on social care, or getting her sums wrong on school meals. But they won’t forgive Jeremy Corbyn for giving comfort to Britain’s enemies at home and abroad, both historically and now amidst the carnage of Manchester.’

Once such emotive language would have been effectively dismissed by Corbynites as a smear. But not today. Jeremy Corbyn has defined the choice on June 8. And it has nothing to do with his tie.

Sure many on this forum will dispute this analysis but considering the polls show a big majority trust May over Corbyn on the UK's security, I still think that the most likely outcome will be a comfortable victory for the Tories.

[emordnilap]

If they win, the Conservatives will change how planning law relates to fracking. Some drilling will be automatically allowed under new 'permitted development' rights and major planning decisions will be removed from local councils. Oversight from Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency will be removed and placed in a new (presumably seriously pro-) 'shale regulator'.

Fracking is a seriously bad idea on many levels: It represents a significant new source of greenhouse gas emissions (both fugitive CH4 and CO2) just when we (both nationally and globally) are committed to reduce emissions. It represents local pollution threats ranging from ground water contamination to increased traffic and noise. It entrenches our addiction to legacy fossil fuels, diverting vital investment away from the necessary energy transition.

Labour on the other hand, will ban fracking in the UK. This is one of many issues where there is clear water between the Tories and Labour. History will only judge one position positively and it WON'T be the Tories. On 8th June we can vote to ban fracking in the UK, as it already is in Scotland, France, Germany, Bulgaria and four Canadian provinces.

You may well ban fracking today but will those laws still be on the books ten or fifteen years from now if fuel supplies become inadequate and people are freezing in their dark homes? All some energy company will have to say is 'We can turn the lights back on and make your home warm and toasty if you let us frack' and if a majority is in the dark the tide will turn.

Yes, yes, yes but the huge money and investment poured into fracking would be much more sensibly spent on not needing fracking! This is so obvious that it has to be said, because people can't see the obvious.

[vtsnowedin]

....
.......

Yes, yes, yes but the huge money and investment poured into fracking would be much more sensibly spent on not needing fracking! This is so obvious that it has to be said, because people can't see the obvious.

There will come a time when those that have been driven out of the gas market, by high prices and supply shortages, will turn their attention to "not needing fracking!" as you say or more commonly known as seeking improvements in efficiency and seeking cheaper alternatives. Unfortunately that will not happen until the high prices and shortages exist for long enough time for people to have confidence in the need for such actions. The fact that money will be spent on fracking in the meantime does not reduce the amount of money that will be available to seek efficiencies in the future as long as the resulting fracked gas is used profitably.
Fortunately not everyone has the same price point that drives them to reduce their gas consumption so as prices rise efforts to do without will rise in lockstep with each price increase bringing in a new group seeking alternatives.
You just can't expect the majority to suddenly see the light and start making preparations and investments for a future that only a few are confidant will actually develop.

[clv101]

Theresa May is truly hopeless. Her interview with Paxman tonight was a terrible. No wonder she's not willing to go face to face with the other leaders.