General Election 2024

[clv101]

I think Reform have gone backwards over the last few days. Farage's comments about Russia/Ukraine and his attacks on Johnson (worst British PM ever) have directly damaged a core part of the Reform voting cohort.

[Default0ptions]

I think Reform have gone backwards over the last few days. Farage's comments about Russia/Ukraine and his attacks on Johnson (worst British PM ever) have directly damaged a core part of the Reform voting cohort.

I agree. It’s a bit of a shame because he had some good points and some interesting debates might have come about.

But he folded on his first controversy (was Russia provoked) and has lost all credibility.

Maybe we’ll see him again in the future.

Reform still might have some mileage on their own merit - but Farage’s parties are only about Farage.

And he’s blown it.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Reform have gone backwards over the last few days. Farage's comments about Russia/Ukraine and his attacks on Johnson (worst British PM ever) have directly damaged a core part of the Reform voting cohort.

I don't believe attacking Johnson will lose him many votes. Johnson is a tory and Farage is openly trying to destroy them. His comments about Russia/Ukraine I'm not so sure about -- it will certainly give some people cause to rethink, but how many of them will change their vote as a result is less clear. Reform's voters have one clear priority, and it is immigration, not the conflict in Russia or anything else.

[clv101]

This discussion makes some interesting points about Reform: https://youtu.be/YBYW3khd5ro?si=Ev1a4lQsXSS2AK6W

[UndercoverElephant]

This discussion makes some interesting points about Reform: https://youtu.be/YBYW3khd5ro?si=Ev1a4lQsXSS2AK6W

Also made the same point I did about Labour and gender ideology, especially with respect to feminism.

I think "Farage has lost the right" has got to be a false statement because what is happening at the moment is a complex schism of the right which cannot be reversed. In other words, which right does Marr think Farage has lost? Trump is the right, right? And Trump may well be sympathetic to Farage's comments about Putin.

At this point the MRP models are almost useless. The past is of very limited use for predicting the outcome of this election.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/phili ... on-3134192

A senior Conservative has been accused of placing an £8,000 bet that he would lose his seat at the election, as the gambling scandal continues to dominate the campaign.

Sir Philip Davies, who is married to cabinet minister Esther McVey, is defending a 6,242 majority in Shipley, West Yorkshire.

The alleged bet was first reported by The Sun. When approached by the paper, Sir Philip said the sum involved was “nobody’s business” and that he “fully expected to lose the seat” but insisted he had done nothing illegal.

[Default0ptions]

It’s all rather a cesspit of corruption really isn’t it?

[Mark]

To quote Farage......., “It's as if they're literally stealing the light bulbs on the way out of the building”

[UndercoverElephant]

The Telegraph: Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again.

https://archive.is/ibijl

[UndercoverElephant]

LibDem candidate accuses somebody of "nicking stuff" based solely on the fact they are registered to vote in Liverpool:

https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2024-0 ... king-stuff

Just about sums up the sneering holier-than-thou attitude of the liberal democrats. They have total confidence in their own intellectual and moral superiority, and mostly don't even try to hide it.

[dustiswhatweare]

The Telegraph: Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again.

https://archive.is/ibijl

Just read that and after consideration, the author is a bit of a knob.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Telegraph: Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again.

https://archive.is/ibijl

Just read that and after consideration, the author is a bit of a knob.

Just slightly hyperbolic, yes. Although one must assume he actually meant what he wrote.

[UndercoverElephant]

Interesting article about the polls, especially MRP polls, and why their models might be wrong:

https://electionsetc.com/2024/06/26/bre ... al-change/

BREAKING THE SWINGOMETER: HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS FOR PROPORTIONAL CHANGE

Conclusion

If the polls are roughly right, and the Conservatives really are about to lose over half the vote share they secured in 2019, then mathematical constraints mean that the party must lose more heavily in places where it is defending more than 24% of the vote.

The various historical precedents above suggests that Conservative losses could well be proportional to prior strength. Based on recent polls, that means losing 53% of their 2019 vote in every constituency. That would render the swingometer next to useless on election night.

Given the experience of by-elections in the last three years and the 2023 and 2024 local elections, proportional change would not be surprising.

The experiences of 1906 and 1929, and Canada 1993, show that the drop in the Conservative “safe” seats could be even worse than a proportional change model would predict. The MRP models could actually be underestimating Conservative losses.

However, in different ways, the experiences of Labour in 1983, the Conservatives in 1997, and Liberal Democrats in 2015 provide the Tories some hope that the worst of the seat predictions for them next week are misplaced.

It is also possible that the polls are wrong on the headline shares of the vote, as they were in 1970, 1992 and 2015, and that the Conservatives will do much better and Labour much worse than polls currently suggest. Even such big polling errors coupled with uniform change would not be enough for the Tories to stay in power. The possibility of such a scenario does mean that Labour’s majority is not in the bag yet.

[Potemkin Villager]

The Telegraph: Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again.

https://archive.is/ibijl

Just read that and after consideration, the author is a bit of a knob.

Just slightly hyperbolic, yes. Although one must assume he actually meant what he wrote.

I see they are the victims! And what on earth is "woke capital?
Sounds like quite a bit of the finest single malt was consumed creating this blurb!

[UndercoverElephant]

Full timetable of expected declarations on election night:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... e-results/