General Election 2024

[UndercoverElephant]

General election called for July 4th.

It looks to me like the tories are in very serious strategic trouble. Their strategy is on the table: accuse Labour of having no plan, in an attempt to scare the electorate into not voting for them because they are an unknown quantity. There are two major problems with this strategy. The first is that even if people believe it, they aren't necessarily going to vote tory instead. It provides no positive reason to vote tory. The second, and much more serious, is that it is a hostage to Labour actually not having a plan. This may seem to hold water right now, but "all" Labour has to do is come up with a really good manifesto and the tories will be left with no viable strategy at all. They do not have a plan B, which will make them look like the most absurd sort of hypocrites if Plan A is to accuse Labour of not having a plan when they manifestly do.

I think there are some things which could yet go horribly wrong for Labour. If they make some bad calls on immigration or on transgender ideology then they could lose a lot of votes in a very short space of time, and it is possible that could hand the momentum back to the tories in many swing constituencies (of which there are a vast number this time). But assuming they do not mess up on those issues then my opening prediction for the result of this election is that the tories will be lucky to hold on to 150 seats and it is entirely possible they will be reduced to double figures.

[UndercoverElephant]

Survation snap poll on voting intentions:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/com ... ion_ahead/

NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead. 21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

LAB 48 (+4)
CON 27 (+3)
LD 8 (-2)
GRN 2 (-5)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (+1)
OTH 4 (-1)

F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

Electoral Calculus has gone down, so can't guess what this works out to in seats.

[clv101]

I expect Tories to close the gap to from ~20 points to Labour to 14-12 points come election day. Labour are unlikely in my opinion to achieve a majority over 100 seats. A comfortable win, but not the landslide today's polls suggest.

[UndercoverElephant]

Clear blue water between us then. I'd say it is more likely that the gap will widen during the campaign. I think Sunak is going to turn out to be the sort of politician who is bad at campaigning (like May, unlike Johnson).

[Ralphw2]

Disappointed to see the green vote down five. I guess the natural green voters are so afraid of the Tories not losing they will vote labour in marginal seats. Equally the LD vote is down from disaffected Tory voters because they are frightened of Labour getting in.

As always, the environment will get lost in the politics

[UndercoverElephant]

Disappointed to see the green vote down five. I guess the natural green voters are so afraid of the Tories not losing they will vote labour in marginal seats. Equally the LD vote is down from disaffected Tory voters because they are frightened of Labour getting in.

As always, the environment will get lost in the politics

The Greens are irrelevant from my POV. Will never get anywhere near power and most of them seem to have lost the plot anyway.

[clv101]

I expect the Greens to win 2 seats, yes pretty irrelevant.

[Forever_Winter]

Lots of sporting etc events will be on. I wonder how that will affect turnout and voting intentions?

[adam2]

I would not consider voting labour. Whilst the present labour leader seems fairly sensible, moderate, and electable he could be replaced after any election victory by a harder left leader. Corbyn, or someone else with similar views.
Such a leader might well take us back into the EU, and out of NATO. And adopt an open door immigration policy.

I shall probably vote green.

[Potemkin Villager]

It was not a good luck a man in pants that are too short sounding drunk shouting to try and get attention
in a loud disco after having beer poured all over him!

[Ralphw2]

I am wandering around Bristol this morning, the prime Green target seat. There is a lot of visible green propaganda like the rework centres for repairing gadgets which is all good and essential (I take part in repair cafes too) and good bus services and lots of bicycles, but it can't hide the divide between the wealthy with their fashion shops and the beggars outside in the streets.

The greens obviously benefit from the large student vote, but the vibe I get is of the socialist movement of distant decades who were blinded by their ideology to the inequality leading to civil war on their doorstep.

Even in my own up and coming new town there is a strong social divide between the wealthy middle class who run the church and U3A who seem totally ignorant of the food bank and thrift shop for the poor and sick run out of the same building. I volunteer for both.

[UndercoverElephant]

Lots of sporting etc events will be on. I wonder how that will affect turnout and voting intentions?

The election is 10 days before the Euros start. That might have made a difference, but I don't think anything else will.

The mood of this country is going to be very strange if England actually manage to win -- and we are clear favourites this time around. Two monkeys off our backs in rapid succession.

[UndercoverElephant]

I would not consider voting labour. Whilst the present labour leader seems fairly sensible, moderate, and electable he could be replaced after any election victory by a harder left leader. Corbyn, or someone else with similar views.
Such a leader might well take us back into the EU, and out of NATO. And adopt an open door immigration policy.

There is zero probability of that happening while Labour is in power. That is why people like Owen Jones are leaving the party.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... p-policies

[clv101]

I would not consider voting labour. Whilst the present labour leader seems fairly sensible, moderate, and electable he could be replaced after any election victory by a harder left leader. Corbyn, or someone else with similar views.
Such a leader might well take us back into the EU, and out of NATO. And adopt an open door immigration policy.

There is zero probability of that happening while Labour is in power. That is why people like Owen Jones are leaving the party.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... p-policies

Agreed, this seems like a strange reason not to vote Labour in 6 weeks. The last thing Starmer's Labour is going to do is entertain a Corbyn figure coming to prominence any time soon.

[emordnilap]

It seems an odd time to call an election: the tories must know they don't stand much of a chance.

But do they know something else which others don't?