2023 government Autumn statement.

[adam2]

Please posts news reports and comments about the Autmun statement here.

[clv101]

This one's going to be a real doozy. Nothing to lose, expectation of less than 12 months before electoral collapse.

Balancing act between giving the papers ('cos let's face it, the papers are still king when it comes to shaping public opinion) what they will report positively on without falling in the Truss trap and spooking the markets. ANY repeat of the reaction to Truss could result in the rapid unplanned disassembly of the Tory party.

Pre-trailed living wage increase is a good move, ~keeping up with inflation. Any significant move on inheritance tax, a tax that only troubles the richest ~4% of estates in the land is going to be awkward, especially if there are benefit cuts. Reducing access of prescriptions/health care as a benefit sanction seem particularly bad.

Let's see.

[UndercoverElephant]

Pre-trailed living wage increase is a good move, ~keeping up with inflation.

Keeping up with inflation in which month though? There is talk of it only keeping up with this month's inflation figure, which is a lot lower than last month's.

Any significant move on inheritance tax, a tax that only troubles the richest ~4% of estates in the land is going to be awkward, especially if there are benefit cuts. Reducing access of prescriptions/health care as a benefit sanction seem particularly bad.

I can't see it improving the poll ratings for the tories. I am not sure I can see anything at all that is going to pull this one out of the fire for the tories, except for possibly some actual flights to Rwanda. Not that I think that is likely before the election.

I think it is still possible we are going to see a collapse in remaining tory support. If it becomes widely expected that they aren't even going to have enough MPs to function as an opposition then we could see die-hard tory voters switching to Reform because they are already completely resigned to a Labour landslide and it has turned into a battle over the future of the tory party instead. Might also serve as a warning to Starmer about the perils of being seen as soft on immigration.

[clv101]

Bit of a nothing burger really. Guess the ghost of Truss/Kwarteng was looming over him, tying his hands. Was he simply afraid of the fallout from anything that looked like significant tax cuts. The NI cuts are reasonable - however, poorly targeted. Millionaires, extremely high earners, will also see this ~£500 handout. The fiscal drag (wages increasing but tax bands staying fixed) costs more than this NI cuts.

The full expensing thing is significant, but very few voters will care about it.

[clv101]

If I understand this right, anyone earning over £50,250 gets a tax cut of £745. Earn less than that, get a smaller handout.

[BritDownUnder]

Most tax cuts at the higher level will simply get pi$$ed away in imports of unnecessary goods. Of course my Dad always used to say that tax cuts at the lower level got pi$$ed or smoked away in the form of alcohol and cigarettes.