Conservative party/opposition watch

[UndercoverElephant]

https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/t ... llapse-5cb

The Tories' Weird Incoherent Collapse
The contradictions of Brexit and a choice for conservatism

Nice analysis of the underlying problems with the tory party.

[anotherexlurker]

Truss won't call a GE with the current pole ratings.

She might do if she cannot pass a budget. She may have no other option.

Under the present rules the PM does not have the ability to call a general election , it would need a vote in parliament and that requires a two thirds majority in favour, if you where a current Tory MP why the hell would you want to vote for a general election!!

Even if she lost a lost a vote of no confidence, the Tory MP's have 14 days to select someone else as party leader/PM before a general election has to be called, in such circumstances it would be easy to bypass parts of the official leader selection process.

I do agree that the PM might not be able to pass the legislation to get the mini-budget done , and talk of possibly cutting back the welfare state to help balance the books , whilst in the "middle" of a cost of living crisis makes the tax cuts for the rich seem even more stupid and in my view reduces the chance that sufficient Tory MP's would vote the mini-budget through.

[Potemkin Villager]

Even if she lost a lost a vote of no confidence, the Tory MP's have 14 days to select someone else as party leader/PM before a general election has to be called, in such circumstances it would be easy to bypass parts of the official leader selection process.

Who would be mad enough to take on the poisoned chalice? Changing leader at this rate really is a sign of politics descending into even more disrepute. Well actually there is probably no shortage of overconfident deluded wannabes highly qualified to effortlessly make things even worse. Truss me, as far as I can see we are still only in the low foothills of some really very serious weirdness. I predict it will all kick off over some apparently minor incident in Brum during the tory love in. Game on, I've got my ringside seat booked.

[UndercoverElephant]

Under the present rules the PM does not have the ability to call a general election , it would need a vote in parliament and that requires a two thirds majority in favour, if you where a current Tory MP why the hell would you want to vote for a general election!!

I just explained why. If the alternative is voting for May's tax cuts then voting for a general election may be the best way to preserve your own seat. The key is that Truss may find herself in a position where she cannot pass a budget, and if the tories cannot agree among themselves on a way forwards then the only remaining option is a general election. Tory MPs who opposed the mini budget can say "I voted to stop this, and risked my seat in a general election. Please vote for me so Labour has a strong opposition."

Even if she lost a lost a vote of no confidence, the Tory MP's have 14 days to select someone else as party leader/PM before a general election has to be called, in such circumstances it would be easy to bypass parts of the official leader selection process.

I never said anything about losing a VONC. Again: I am talking about a situation where she cannot pass a budget.

I do agree that the PM might not be able to pass the legislation to get the mini-budget done , and talk of possibly cutting back the welfare state to help balance the books , whilst in the "middle" of a cost of living crisis makes the tax cuts for the rich seem even more stupid and in my view reduces the chance that sufficient Tory MP's would vote the mini-budget through.

If a government cannot vote a budget through, then under the unwritten British constitution it is an officially broken government and there needs to be a general election. It is no use tory MPs just saying "But we don't want an election". It is also possible that they will replace their leader.

[kenneal - lagger]

I think that they can vote clause by clause so they could vote a budget through but an amended one.

[clv101]

Seems like they are U-turning on the 45% rate cut, after Truss is adamant she was sticking with it on Sunday morning.

[UndercoverElephant]

Seems like they are U-turning on the 45% rate cut, after Truss is adamant she was sticking with it on Sunday morning.

Just the beginning.

[anotherexlurker]

Under the present rules the PM does not have the ability to call a general election , it would need a vote in parliament and that requires a two thirds majority in favour, if you where a current Tory MP why the hell would you want to vote for a general election!!

I just explained why. If the alternative is voting for May's tax cuts then voting for a general election may be the best way to preserve your own seat. The key is that Truss may find herself in a position where she cannot pass a budget, and if the tories cannot agree among themselves on a way forwards then the only remaining option is a general election. Tory MPs who opposed the mini budget can say "I voted to stop this, and risked my seat in a general election. Please vote for me so Labour has a strong opposition."

Even if she lost a lost a vote of no confidence, the Tory MP's have 14 days to select someone else as party leader/PM before a general election has to be called, in such circumstances it would be easy to bypass parts of the official leader selection process.

I never said anything about losing a VONC. Again: I am talking about a situation where she cannot pass a budget.

I do agree that the PM might not be able to pass the legislation to get the mini-budget done , and talk of possibly cutting back the welfare state to help balance the books , whilst in the "middle" of a cost of living crisis makes the tax cuts for the rich seem even more stupid and in my view reduces the chance that sufficient Tory MP's would vote the mini-budget through.

If a government cannot vote a budget through, then under the unwritten British constitution it is an officially broken government and there needs to be a general election. It is no use tory MPs just saying "But we don't want an election". It is also possible that they will replace their leader.

Sorry I had assumed that you knew that even if a finance bill failed to get through THAT WOULD NOT MEAN a general election, no matter what you think, it might/probably would have caused a VONC which might or might not have been lost and even if lost did not mean a general election was guaranteed. We now know that (which was always the most likely outcome), the 45p rate tax cut will be removed from the mini budget.

If you where a current Tory MP the best way of retaining your seat would be anything other than voting for a general election in which you would most likely lose your seat anyway, in such circumstances it would be better to gamble on removing the PM and try someone else in the hope that the situation had improved before you where forced to face a general election.

Note I am not saying that I think the situation would improve enough before being forced to face a general election , but what has a Tory MP got to lose?
I bet in private most Tory MP's would think they had a better chance of retaining their seat if Boris came back than having Truss as the leader!!

If I was still a Tory Member and had a vote in the last leadership contest I would have voted for Truss over Sunak , but that would only have been on the basis that in my view Sunak had already proved he was totally incompetent over his handling of the Billions wasted during the Covid pandemic (which is not over yet) and Truss had yet to prove she was totally incompetent, Truss has since proved that she is just as incompetent.

[Mark]

Basically never listen or trust a politician who blows with the wind ie changes his/her policies every time the weather changes.

Like LizzieT and KK have just done ?
And likely more to come....

[Mark]

I do agree that the PM might not be able to pass the legislation to get the mini-budget done , and talk of possibly cutting back the welfare state to help balance the books , whilst in the "middle" of a cost of living crisis makes the tax cuts for the rich seem even more stupid and in my view reduces the chance that sufficient Tory MP's would vote the mini-budget through.

I know somebody in their 40s in constant pain with chronic fibromyalgia - she used to work as a cleaner, but despite still wanting to, work is no longer possible.... She lives in a Housing Association Flat and her rent and Council Tax are automatically taken from her Universal Credit... After that, she is left with just over £70/month (less than £20/week) to cover electricity & gas (prepaid meters), food, TV Licence, clothes....

Her benefits are going to increase less than the rate of inflation.
The limit on Bankers Bonuses is still going to be lifted.
Where is the justice ?

[anotherexlurker]

I do agree that the PM might not be able to pass the legislation to get the mini-budget done , and talk of possibly cutting back the welfare state to help balance the books , whilst in the "middle" of a cost of living crisis makes the tax cuts for the rich seem even more stupid and in my view reduces the chance that sufficient Tory MP's would vote the mini-budget through.

I know somebody in their 40s in constant pain with chronic fibromyalgia - she used to work as a cleaner, but despite still wanting to, work is no longer possible.... She lives in a Housing Association Flat and her rent and Council Tax are automatically taken from her Universal Credit... After that, she is left with just over £70/month (less than £20/week) to cover electricity & gas (prepaid meters), food, TV Licence, clothes....

Her benefits are going to increase less than the rate of inflation.
The limit on Bankers Bonuses is still going to be lifted.
Where is the justice ?

My mother suffered from Fibromyalgi , so they have my sympathy.
If someone is single and lives in most of the south east outside London then due to the benefit cap not having been increased (I have not seen anything to confirm it is even being increased this coming April) plenty of people will not get any rise at all (whilst people on disability are exempt from the benefit cap, it gets complicated depending on what benefits they are on).

I do not understand the logic of increasing the limit on bankers bonuses , whilst the sums involved will be neither here or there , if you were out campaigning on the doorstep (something I used to do years ago) , you would know the first thing that would be "thrown" at you and that you would have no way to justify it (the same would have been true with the 45% tax rate cut) , whilst others risk starving and/or freezing. If anything right now I think you could convince most Tories to support an increase in the tax rates for the most wealthy.

Whilst I support the government helping with the energy costs , you can look at it as part of the cost of war , the help needed to be targeted much better towards those that needed it the most.

[clv101]

Well that was pretty pointless. Kwarteng's conference speech was absolutely not impressive enough to quieten his critics. Short, repetitive, just ignored some of major economic issues of the day (inflation, interest rates), implied 'growth' was some kind of original idea... Hopeless.

[UndercoverElephant]

Sorry I had assumed that you knew that even if a finance bill failed to get through THAT WOULD NOT MEAN a general election, no matter what you think, it might/probably would have caused a VONC which might or might not have been lost and even if lost did not mean a general election was guaranteed. We now know that (which was always the most likely outcome), the 45p rate tax cut will be removed from the mini budget.

Even a VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election.

If you where a current Tory MP the best way of retaining your seat would be anything other than voting for a general election in which you would most likely lose your seat anyway, in such circumstances it would be better to gamble on removing the PM and try someone else in the hope that the situation had improved before you where forced to face a general election.

You seem to just be ignoring what I am saying. If you are a tory MP who has already concluded the tories cannot win the next election, and all you want to do is preserve your own seat, then the best way of doing so is to vote against Truss and Kwarteng, even if that means voting for a general election. Voting to keep them going as long as possible in order to avoid the inevitable is not the way to save your seat. That is the way to lose it.

However, it now does look as if they are going to back down rather than stick to their plans. I am expecting more u-turns.

Note I am not saying that I think the situation would improve enough before being forced to face a general election , but what has a Tory MP got to lose?

I believe the situation is only going to get worse so long as Truss remains in Downing Street. She cannot rescue the situation from here.

[anotherexlurker]

Even a VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election.

Which is exactly what I stated.

You seem to just be ignoring what I am saying. If you are a tory MP who has already concluded the tories cannot win the next election, and all you want to do is preserve your own seat, then the best way of doing so is to vote against Truss and Kwarteng, even if that means voting for a general election. Voting to keep them going as long as possible in order to avoid the inevitable is not the way to save your seat. That is the way to lose it.

Sorry but you just don't seem to understand that voting against Truss does not mean a general election would happen anyway. If Truss was unable to pass a budget (it was always likely to be amended until it would pass) then she could be simply thrown under the Bus and someone else could try and lead the party.
You cant honestly believe that the majority of Tory MP's either think or would be advised that the best way to save their OWN seat in the present circumstances would to be to vote for a general election, if you do believe that then I suggest you are being very naive.
The golden rule in any survival situation is to buy time by any means necessary , most MP's want to survive.

[UndercoverElephant]

Sorry but you just don't seem to understand that voting against Truss does not mean a general election would happen anyway. If Truss was unable to pass a budget (it was always likely to be amended until it would pass) then she could be simply thrown under the Bus and someone else could try and lead the party.

And you think changing the leader again without a general election is likely to bring a better result when one eventually happens? What I am saying is that at the point it becomes obvious that the country needs a general election then it may well be in the interests of tory MPs to make that happen instead of prolonging the misery. Prolonging the misery doesn't win seats.

You cant honestly believe that the majority of Tory MP's either think or would be advised that the best way to save their OWN seat in the present circumstances would to be to vote for a general election, if you do believe that then I suggest you are being very naive.
The golden rule in any survival situation is to buy time by any means necessary , most MP's want to survive.

I don't think I am being naive. In this situation buying time isn't necessarily the best survival strategy. There is no point in buying time if things are only going to get worse.

What I am saying is that what is electorally best for the tory party in general is not necessarily the same thing as what is best for individual tory MPs. Voters don't just vote for parties. They vote for people.