UK Government : No peak until 2030

[admin2]

Powerswitch just received a reply from Malcolm Wicks regarding Peak Oil. These are the highlights...

- The government is aware of the peak oil arguments and does not dispute it will one day peak
- It will not peak until 2030 providing necessary investments are made
- IEA is conducting a medium term projection using field by field analysis ? full results will be published later this quarter. Provisional findings available in IEA?s December 2005 Monthly Oil Market Report ( http://omrpublic.iea.org). These show global oil production rising steadily by 2million barrels a year until 2010
- Fall in discovery is due to fall in exploration in Russia and Middle East ? drilling concentrated in North America and Europe which are both mature regions (and Middle East ISN?T???) Only 3% of wildcat wells drilled in the ten years to 2002 were in the Middle East.
- He talks about increases in reserve growth but does not mention decline at all
- He says that despite this the Government is putting in a broad range of policies as set out in the Energy White Paper 2003 that will help move the UK economy away from primarily fossil fuel power.
- Wants to reassure that the Government remains actively engaged in the debate on the issue of global oil reserves and continues to pursue a number of areas of work in this area.
- The UK government is currently conducting another Energy Review


I am not reassured and we will be replying.

[isenhand]

- It will not peak until 2030 providing necessary investments are made

Would it be too much to ask for the details on that bit please?

[ianryder]

I think they might be talking about the $17 trillion of investment before 2030 that got mentioned...the $17 trillion that isn't going to happen meaning 2030 is just smoke and mirrors

http://newerainvestor.blogspot.com/2006 ... nergy.html

This is the same school of thought that believes we will be using 120+ million barrels a day by 2030, something now even the oil companies are saying will never happen

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... ight=reach

[johnhemming]

Remember these answers are written by the Civil Servants. I doubt that most ministers actually have any substantial effect on government policy per se.

[Bandidoz]

It will not peak until 2030 providing necessary investments are made

And what is their projection for the scenario in which they are not?

[tristan]

Can we see the full reply from Wicks?

[skeptik]

Powerswitch just received a reply from Malcolm Wicks regarding Peak Oil. These are the highlights...

- The government is aware of the peak oil arguments and does not dispute it will one day peak
Did you like that that small concession to logic?

- It will not peak until 2030 providing necessary investments are made
Nice get out, don't you think? So if it does happen sooner, it follows that the 'neccessary investments' were not made and therefore its not our fault. Blame the Oil Cos.

"Draw the required line on the graph and the dollars and oil will come"
It's magic, as shown on page 3 of this pdf slide show on the IEA website.
http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/Textbase/wo ... lueger.pdf

- IEA is conducting a medium term projection using field by field analysis ? full results will be published later this quarter. Provisional findings available in IEA?s December 2005 Monthly Oil Market Report ( http://omrpublic.iea.org). These show global oil production rising steadily by 2million barrels a year (a year? Shurely shome mishtake? ) until 2010
I hope the field by field data will be published. Then clever chaps at ODAC and Peakoil Netherlands who have done similar studies (http://www.peakoil.nl/images/ponlreport.pdf http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/news/539 ) will be able to analyse and crit the findings.
Global production has been flat at between 84 and 85MB/D since last quarter of 2004. Theres a bit of catching up to do. When did you say take off is expected?


- Fall in discovery is due to fall in exploration in Russia and Middle East ? drilling concentrated in North America and Europe which are both mature regions (and Middle East ISN?T???) Only 3% of wildcat wells drilled in the ten years to 2002 were in the Middle East.
Oifield structure is completely different in the Mid East. In the USA there are thousands of smaller fields. Put your wildcat just yards in the wrong direction and you miss the oil. In the mid east are fewer larger fields. discovery has been falling since the 60's.

- He talks about increases in reserve growth but does not mention decline at all
Hey! who wants to be a party pooper?

-He says that despite this the Government is putting in a broad range of policies as set out in the Energy White Paper 2003 that will help move the UK economy away from primarily fossil fuel power.
Now thats Bollocks. "Our Energy Future" of 2003 envisaged rising use of Natural Gas, not falling.

Wants to reassure that the Government remains actively engaged in the debate on the issue of global oil reserves and continues to pursue a number of areas of work in this area.
Yes, Minister. Useless blathery filler sentence which provides *zero* information, but gives the impression that we are a hive of activity.

- The UK government is currently conducting another Energy Review
Which is why, because the subject is currently a political hot potato, Jess has had the lid clamped down on it. Tony, Gordon and the gangs in No10 & 11 are still arguing about the 'line'. Everybody here in the DTi wishes they'd hurry up and make their minds up so we can get on with the justification for whatever they come up with, do the shit shining and eventually ship it out to the public

I am not reassured and we will be replying.

[clv101]

The just show that Wicks subscribes to the 'Economic View' of oil supply. Roger Bentley has recently suggested how this view came about - a misunderstanding of what the term 'proved reserves' actually means:

http://uk.theoildrum.com/story/2006/5/1/151017/4187

[bobcousins]

It is hardly surprising that the UK government gets its info from the IEA: this is exactly what the IEA is for, i.e. to advise member countries on energy issues. I would not expect our government to get info on climate change from Greenpeace, the Centre for Policy Studies, nor some group I never heard of with a website.

The fact that the IEA's view is optimistic, and that it's clients take the most optimistic take on that optimistic view, is a problem. But getting the government to take someone else's view over the IEA is unlikely to happen.

Lobbying the opposition, interest groups, the media and the public is more likely to get results IMHO.

[martinezhockley]

Interesting to see what the same source they use to reassure us has to say in its recent short term energy outlook:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Both the inability of world oil producers to increase production capacity to meet growing demand and growing concern about the security of supplies have contributed to rising crude oil prices.

The prospects for significant improvement in the world petroleum supply and demand balance appear to be fading. While U.S. production in 2006 will grow with recovery from the hurricanes, only moderate increases in OPEC and other non-OPEC production and capacity are expected. Steady and continued growth in world oil demand will likely combine with only modest increases in world oil production capacity leaving little room to increase production in the event of geopolitical instability. Crude oil prices will remain high through 2007.

[MacG]

Interesting to see what the same source they use to reassure us has to say in its recent short term energy outlook:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Both the inability of world oil producers to increase production capacity to meet growing demand and growing concern about the security of supplies have contributed to rising crude oil prices.

The prospects for significant improvement in the world petroleum supply and demand balance appear to be fading. While U.S. production in 2006 will grow with recovery from the hurricanes, only moderate increases in OPEC and other non-OPEC production and capacity are expected. Steady and continued growth in world oil demand will likely combine with only modest increases in world oil production capacity leaving little room to increase production in the event of geopolitical instability. Crude oil prices will remain high through 2007.

Just one question. A really simple one:

HOW COME THAT THOSE GENIOUSES DID NOT SEE THE CURRENT SITUATION TWO YEARS AGO??!!

Judging from the crude spot price, Campbell, Deffeyes, Laherre and the gang have been 100% right the last five years, and EIA, IEA, CERA and the rest of the establishment have been 100% wrong.

Who would you trust most for further predictions? Those who have a track record of beeing 100% right or those who have been 100% wrong?

[grinu]

I got almost exactly the same reply - check it out in the campaigning section. I also recently rec'd one from Alan Johnson, which I've yet yo type up on here.