Parliamentary Peak Oil Group - December Meeting Invitation

APPGOPO · Post by **APPGOPO** » 18 Nov 2009, 21:12

All Powerswitch Forum Members are invited to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil (APPGOPO) meeting:

Peak Oil and the Caspian Region

Speaker:

Bruce Gaston (CEO, SkyBridge Finance)

Once touted as the next Middle East, what does the future hold for oil production in the Caspian region? What effect will exploitation of Caspian reserves have on the timing of global peak oil? How significant is the region for UK energy security?

Tuesday December 8th - 6.30pm

Committee Room 10, House of Commons

To be followed by Q & A

Please register for this event here: http://www.appgopo.org.uk/index.php?opt ... view&id=15

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If you require further information about this meeting or about APPGOPO's work more generally please contact me at endicottn [at] parliament.uk

Yours sincerely,

Neil Endicott
Researcher to John Hemming MP (Chair of All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil)
www.appgopo.org.uk

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 Nov 2009, 23:01

I've signed up. I've never been inside the House of Commons.

Anyone else going?

MrG · Post by **MrG** » 19 Nov 2009, 11:21

definitly going to go to this

does anyone know how late these things can go on for? It doesn't even start till 6:30 and I want to book myself on the last train back to cardiff

that or find somewhere to stay in london.. i've got a friend in london i could stay with so should be ok to stop ther night with out needing to sell any body parts for the cash

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 19 Nov 2009, 22:07

Obviously I can't make it but it would be good if any other non-doomer was able to present there case alongside the doom.

It would be good if the point was raised that in terms of transport, going for electric buses and trucks is a much better short term approach than trying to go for electric cars (though I support electric cars in the medium to long term).

mobbsey · Post by **mobbsey** » 20 Nov 2009, 11:28

RalphW wrote:I've signed up.

Get there half an hour early -- if it's busy it can take a while getting through the queue at security.

Coming to my gig at the Commons next Tuesday? (24th)
http://appgopo.org.uk//index.php?option ... &catids=14

Post by **clv101** » 20 Nov 2009, 11:29

mobbsey wrote:Coming to my gig at the Commons next Tuesday? (24th)
http://appgopo.org.uk//index.php?option ... &catids=14

Yeah, I'll be there.

MrG · Post by **MrG** » 20 Nov 2009, 16:07

It would be good if the point was raised that in terms of transport, going for electric buses and trucks is a much better short term approach than trying to go for electric cars (though I support electric cars in the medium to long term).

What about trying to encourage a resurgence of using our perfectly good canal network - that would also seem to be a good idea.

Maybe even extending it a bit

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 20 Nov 2009, 17:20

MrG wrote:
It would be good if the point was raised that in terms of transport, going for electric buses and trucks is a much better short term approach than trying to go for electric cars (though I support electric cars in the medium to long term).
What about trying to encourage a resurgence of using our perfectly good canal network - that would also seem to be a good idea.

Maybe even extending it a bit

No doubt. But in addition to going for electric trucks and buses first.
There's no canal near where I was, so it wouldn't work for getting to work OR bringing groceries to the nearest Tesco.

If the plan is to cover risks we should be looking at:

1. Short Term - Getting food to the shops (i.e. shoring up the last mile) - a combo of non oil based rail freight and water freight for the long haul and electric trucks for the last mile.
2. Short Term - Getting people to work and to the shops. This could involve more local shops so walking and cycling could work. In addition bus routes could be shored up by making them electric. Using electric buses is a drop-in replacement for diesel buses and does not require infrastructure changes such as light rail or tram lines (which would be better in the long run).
3. Short Term - A plan to super insulate every last building in the country.
4. Medium to long term - upgrade the grid
5. Medium to long term - get all GOVERNMENT departments off oil for transport and off fossil fuels for heating and/or electricity needs.
6. Medium to long term - add additional generating capacity
7. Medium to long term - replace private motor car fleet with non oil based (i.e. electric)

IF we do all these things we will make it to a scandinavian level of resilience. If we do not, we will find people cannot get to work and the shops start to empty and we will have rolling blackouts by the second half of this decade.

Good luck.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 20 Nov 2009, 17:48

Short Term - A plan to super insulate every last building in the country.

Not enough stuff or skills to do that.

The WW3 Protect & Survive build-yourself-a-safe-room calculations highlighted the problem ... nowhere near enough wood & nails in the country to permit construction of 20 million safe rooms.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 21 Nov 2009, 10:42

I aim to start the meeting on time at 6.30pm and end it at 8pm.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 09 Dec 2009, 10:23

Went to this - very interesting. Bruce Gaston was not what I expected from an investment banker. Clearly knew what he was talking about.

With the proviso that he is a *anker who is selling his interests in the area, he confirmed that the Caspian area still has oil to develop, but it won't be easy, for infrastructure and geopolitical reasons.

He saw maximum production from the area as 1m bpd, a realistic value being half that.

He says there is a lot of natural gas in the area, some of it in Afghanistan. Possibly oil there too. There are still plans to build a pipeline through the country to provide another route out for oil and gas, but this is not going to happen until things get under control...

He said if Afghanistan is lost, unrest could spread through the Caspian, (particularly Kazakhstan, where he claims most of the resources are).

He said the Russian incursion into Georgia was a major blow to energy security in the area, as they could trivially cut the new oil pipeline through the country.

He says that China is muscling in on the region with huge amounts of dollars, and will be hard to resist. He doesn't like the way they do things, though.

He claims the region has 300B barrels of reserves, but then he is a *anker...

However has also says that PO is about now, any future expansion in the Caspian will be too late to do anything but slow the decline. But maybe he was simply telling us what we want to hear.

He also said that economists at CERA were also quietly acknowledging this...

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 24 Dec 2009, 08:24

Thanks for the summary of the meeting Ralph. So the Caspian is not really the answer to our energy requirements/security. Power down seems to be the only sensibke conclusion one can come to......

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 24 Dec 2009, 09:18

What I found particularly interesting was having someone effectively confirming that the industry sentiment that peak oil is somewhere around nowish.

JonB · Post by **JonB** » 01 Jan 2010, 20:01

johnhemming wrote:What I found particularly interesting was having someone effectively confirming that the industry sentiment that peak oil is somewhere around nowish.

Any response from either Labour or Conservative members?
My reading is the Lib dems have an awareness of the issue, even if it isn't high profile. If my local MP (came in on the 2005 intake - Conservative) is anything to go by,in HMG and the loyal opposition, knowledge is restricted to a few backbenchers.