An Inspector Calls wrote:Thanks for the acknowledgement of my superior knowledge.
You obviously don't understand irony!
I do consider we're at peak oil - we've probably been there for quite a while, and will continue to be so a while longer. We should move away from fossil fuels as much as possible since we no longer produce our own, everyone/every country should do this in a sensible way that protects the economies of the world. That would give, as far as an electrcity grid is concerned BAU. I can't see any reason why that's not achievable in 20-30 years time. For the UK, that does not involve wind or solar, both of which are expensive, short-lifed, and intermittent.
You need to do some serious reading about Peak Oil and its effects on the world's economy. You also need to listen to Albert Bartlett on exponential growth and effects on the supply of commodities. Try
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqcHG7QUK9k or a longer version at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY. Then look into the growth of China and India and their importation of resources. Look at the relative bank balances of eastern vs western countries and put 2+2 together and hopefully you will get 4.
China and India are set to double their resource use in the next seven years so in the 20 to thirty years you are quoting the economic system will be broken. Try the Crash Course by Chris Martenssen
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
As for your PassivHaus tripe:
consider two houses of identical outside dimensions and appearance. One is a PassivHaus, the other a part insulated, heat-pump house. Both have only one external energy supply - the electricity grid. Both use the same annual energy from the grid. You are equipped with a watt-hour meter. How do you tell which house is which? You can't, so who cares?
Your question is wrong because the PassivHaus will have a lower electricity consumption. Even if they did have the same consumption you wouldn't need a meter. Just wait for the first snow fall and look at the roof where there would be a difference in accumulation. Then wait for the next power cut and after a lot more snow accumulation the snow levels might even out. But the Passivhaus will be a lot warmer inside than the heat pump house especially if, as I recommend, both houses have a woodburning stove.
It is never safe to rely on one technology, especially if it is complicated. In a resource depleted future complication means complete failure.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse