Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

[adam2]

Well spotted

[adam2]

I see relatively little concern regarding generating capacity for the coming winter.
The increased price of electricity has reduced demand.
More wind turbines are now available.
And more interconnectors.
PV capacity has increased, off little help in the winter, but every little helps, and every GWH from PV reduces natural gas burnt in power stations.

The main risk factor is the continuing reliance on natural gas for a significant proportion of our generating capacity. With very limited storage, the UK is vulnerable to any supply disruption from wars or natural disasters.

Remember also that severe weather can cause long power cuts even when generating capacity is ample. Remember storm ARWEN, 2 Weeks without power for some. Or the recent flood disaster in Spain.

[BritDownUnder]

I was reading a post on LinkedIn about the power situation in Ireland. Apparently they are at 7GW for a place with about 5 million is pretty high given the UK at at 40GW for 65 million people. Of course they closed down their coal burning plant and have to import some gas generated power from the UK which presumably had to import some from the European friends.

[clv101]

UK has relatively low power consumption per capita - largely due to very high penetration of gas heating (and cooking) and relatively little industry these days.

[adam2]

It looks as though we had a narrow escape from power cuts a few days ago, on Jan 8th. The spot electricity price reached nearly £3 a unit, or about TEN times the retail price. Due to cold calm weather increasing demand and limiting wind power production.

[BritDownUnder]

UK has relatively low power consumption per capita - largely due to very high penetration of gas heating (and cooking) and relatively little industry these days.

Yes heavy industry seems to have gone away. Steelmaking, shipbuilding (for civilian purposes anyway) and maybe even chemicals seem to have mainly closed. I can't see the need for gas where I am as the batteries will power both the stove and heating for an evening load.

Quite why Ireland had so much demand at that time I am uncertain. Must have been electric resistive heating. Any idea how much domestic gas they use?

[adam2]

Gas is less used in Ireland than in the UK for two reasons.

Firstly there is a historical reason, prior to the availability of natural gas, coal gas was used, the manufacture of which of course required coal. Ireland has no significant coal reserves, coal was imported either from Europe or from the UK. This added to costs and made gas more expensive, and therefore less attractive for heating. After being transhipped from a rail wagon, to a ship, and then to another rail wagon, much of the coal became broken into smaller pieces and therefore reduced in value.

Also, Ireland was a more rural economy with many villages, to which it was less economic to supply gas. To this day, bottled gas and oil remain popular for heating, these fuels also need importing, but are more easily handled than coal.

This applied to both Northern Ireland and to the Irish Republic.

[Potemkin Villager]

Also, Ireland was a more rural economy with many villages, to which it was less economic to supply gas. To this day, bottled gas and oil remain popular for heating, these fuels also need importing, but are more easily handled than coal.

This applied to both Northern Ireland and to the Irish Republic.

Bottled lpg is common for cooking in rural area but considered too expensive for heating which is usually coal, oil. turf (now illegal but still openly sold) or wood. There are now an insane number of data centres with the percentage of total metered electricity consumption used by them rising from 5% in 2015 to whopping 21% in 2023.

[emordnilap]

Bottled lpg is common for cooking in rural area but considered too expensive for heating which is usually coal, oil. turf (now illegal but still openly sold) or wood. There are now an insane number of data centres with the percentage of total metered electricity consumption used by them rising from 5% in 2015 to whopping 21% in 2023.

Bottled gas is extremely cheap for cooking. A 34kg bottle lasts 7 to 8 months for two of us, including the odd kettle full of water for doing the dishes when there's no hot water in the cylinder.

The data centre problem is getting worse as more come on line, may reach 30% total electricity consumption with those planned. Surely a colder country would be more suitable (Ireland's getting warmer)?

[adam2]

Data centers are part of the modern world, and are in my view better located in the UK, or in our near neighbour the Irish Republic. Our electricity is greener than many other places and is getting even greener.
And employment is provided by these data centers.

If the data being handled is sensitive or private, then there are security advantages also in having the data centers in or near our own territory, rather than in china or russia, or other potential enemies.

When traditional industries are being run down, it is in my view a poor policy to reject or oppose newer industries such as data centers on the grounds that they use a lot of electricity. Better to encourage renewable electricity production.

[BritDownUnder]

The company I work for does some work for data centres in Australia. As mentioned before these are now hundreds of megawatts. I have not been in any myself but from what I am told the main things we work on are ensuring the power supply is uninterrupted so they must be full of hundreds of UPS systems.