Energy blackouts

[odaeio]

I feel that lack of communications may be a much bigger problem than is expected.
Cell phones are reliant on power to the masts, backup batteries are provided but typically only last a few hours. A few key sites have generators, but most don't and those that do presumably don't have fuel for weeks.
Landlines used to work in power cuts since each subscriber had a dedicated pair of copper wires back to the telephone exchange and power was supplied by a very large battery AND a generator at the exchange. This is no longer the situation for many subscribers. Increasingly fibre optic cables are used for both high speed internet service AND TELEPHONE LINES from the exchange to a cabinet in the street, from which copper wires run to each customer. The equipment in the roadside cabinet needs electricity, backup batteries are fitted, but as with cell phone masts are only sized for an hour or two.

In view of the amount of downsizing, out sourcing, right sizing, off shoring, and short term thinking I have little faith in backup batteries in telecoms equipment.

Yea, the old "party-line" wind the handle telephones even had 20 or 30 year life "air-cells", (well that's what we called them), at each house for the voice electric, and ringing power was supplied by winding the generator handle - well resilient that system was!

[biffvernon]

Fukishima was a different problem as the plant was flooded - not good for electricity.

It makes little difference whether the generator stops working because it floods or runs out of diesel. I suspect (hope), like Adam, that the report was wrong on this point.

[clv101]

I'm not sure I'd expect more than 72hr fuel storage on site. I expect the cooling for an off-line reactor to require of the order of MW. It seems one of the reactors at Dungeness is currently off-line and consuming 13 MW: http://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-s ... ungeness-b

Diesel is 10.8 KWh/L, assume 40% efficiency gives us 4.3 KWh/L.
To provide say 30 MW for the whole site for one hour therefore needs 6,900 L. 72 hrs would be 500,000 L.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn a nuclear powerstation only has a few days diesel supply on site, I doubt they have millions of litres in storage. For scale "A modern high volume throughput filling station selling 5 million litres per year" link. 72 hrs supply would be of the order of a month's supply from a filling station. I doubt they store more.

[adam2]

After a reactor is shut down, the heat produced by on-going radioactive decay must still be removed, but this declines more or less exponentially, it is not fixed.
The power required for cooling therefore also reduces.

I suspect that the figure quoted for a shut down reactor includes a lot of non essential consumption that could be eliminated in an emergency, I doubt that 13MW is needed, or certainly not for long.

I very much doubt that it would be Fukushima-ed after 73 hours without electrical input or diesel delivery.

[clv101]

I expect you're right Adam, however a reactor at Heysham 1 is also offline, currently consuming 29 MW.

[kenneal - lagger]

Heheheh - yup, I imagine that "TPTB" do indeed have extensive plans in place. No Mad Max/Zombie apocalypse will be allowed to happen. I think we can all be fairly sure of that.

They have even been practising - lot's of weird booms, bangs, "explosions" and unseen "fireworks" been causing wonderment around the U.K. the last few month's.

Zombi Apocalypse? "We won't be 'avin' any of that round here mate! Now run along...nothing to see here."

TPTB have this attitude, which I find frightening. Hence their rush to nuclear to maintain the status quo. When, not if, the system breaks it could be something quite innocuous which sets off an unstoppable cascade into oblivion for many of the populous. Another banking crash, which is not arrested quickly enough, leading to a stoppage in payments leading to non supply of fuel/food, leading to a rush on the petrol stations/shops, leading to further riots and the army being bought in, leading to strikes and so on ...

On a worldwide basis the most likely scenario is a failure of the banking system, possibly due to something as silly as the release of a film making fun of a nation's leader ...

[odaeio]

Heheheh - yup, I imagine that "TPTB" do indeed have extensive plans in place. No Mad Max/Zombie apocalypse will be allowed to happen. I think we can all be fairly sure of that.

They have even been practising - lot's of weird booms, bangs, "explosions" and unseen "fireworks" been causing wonderment around the U.K. the last few month's.

Zombi Apocalypse? "We won't be 'avin' any of that round here mate! Now run along...nothing to see here."

TPTB have this attitude, which I find frightening. Hence their rush to nuclear to maintain the status quo. When, not if, the system breaks it could be something quite innocuous which sets off an unstoppable cascade into oblivion for many of the populous. Another banking crash, which is not arrested quickly enough, leading to a stoppage in payments leading to non supply of fuel/food, leading to a rush on the petrol stations/shops, leading to further riots and the army being bought in, leading to strikes and so on ...

On a worldwide basis the most likely scenario is a failure of the banking system, possibly due to something as silly as the release of a film making fun of a nation's leader ...

I have a different view - I don't think the cascade would ever get started. I have this picture in my head of finding Darth Vader with a rather large gun at the front gate, informing me that the bank has a slight computer glitch, and that it's too cold to be out anyway - if I run out of baby food, let him know and he will see what he can do. Sorry, but you can't go anywhere due to the large tank blocking the end of the road. This is the type of thing I imagine as "pre-emptive planning".

[vtsnowedin]

Heheheh - yup, I imagine that "TPTB" do indeed have extensive plans in place. No Mad Max/Zombie apocalypse will be allowed to happen. I think we can all be fairly sure of that.

Just like TPTB had things all sewed up in 1905 so that another war in Europe was impossible due to all the inter related leadership and mutual defense treaties Queen Victoria had managed to put in place.

[Tarrel]

I feel that lack of communications may be a much bigger problem than is expected.
Cell phones are reliant on power to the masts, backup batteries are provided but typically only last a few hours. A few key sites have generators, but most don't and those that do presumably don't have fuel for weeks.
Landlines used to work in power cuts since each subscriber had a dedicated pair of copper wires back to the telephone exchange and power was supplied by a very large battery AND a generator at the exchange. This is no longer the situation for many subscribers. Increasingly fibre optic cables are used for both high speed internet service AND TELEPHONE LINES from the exchange to a cabinet in the street, from which copper wires run to each customer. The equipment in the roadside cabinet needs electricity, backup batteries are fitted, but as with cell phone masts are only sized for an hour or two.

In view of the amount of downsizing, out sourcing, right sizing, off shoring, and short term thinking I have little faith in backup batteries in telecoms equipment.

I'm ready. Listening on 20m, 40m and 80m bands, and on VHF and UHF amateur bands.

73s de 2M0BBS

[adam2]

PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:31 pm

"I fear that the future of electricity supply in the UK may soon resemble the present arrangements in the less developed world.

Many on these forums and elsewhere, are concerned at potential lack of generating capacity (peak natural gas, decommissioning of old nuclear and coal power stations)
Any such lack of generating capacity would of course lead to rota power cuts.

IMHO however the situation in rural areas of the UK could be far worse.
I can forsee many rural areas being "de-electrified" due to the theft of overhead cables and transformers.
Such thefts are already a problem, the main deterrent is the risk of electrocution.
If however the power was off due to a rota power cut then theft would be much easier and possibly widespread.

In addition we should remember that rural electrification has never been profitable, it was largely done in the 1960s as a government job creation programme, and to improve living standards in country districts. Much of the equipment installed in the 1960s is now reaching the end of its life and will require replacement. who's going to pay?

As an example, a friend of my mothers lives in a remote area of Somerset. to serve just three dwellings, the power company have to maintain at least a mile of high voltage line, two transformers, and about half a mile of lower voltage overhead line. I very much doubt that this is profitable. If the company where not legally required to provide a supply, then I doubt that they would do so."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I posted the above seven years ago, interesting to see that TPTB are now concerned at the theft of electrical infrastructure especially when it is dead during extended or repeated outages.
If this comes to pass, some hard decisions will have to made as to whether the human rights of copper thieves are more important than rural electricity supply.

[vtsnowedin]

PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:31 pm

"I fear that the future of electricity supply in the UK may soon resemble the present arrangements in the less developed world.

Many on these forums and elsewhere, are concerned at potential lack of generating capacity (peak natural gas, decommissioning of old nuclear and coal power stations)
Any such lack of generating capacity would of course lead to rota power cuts.

IMHO however the situation in rural areas of the UK could be far worse.
I can forsee many rural areas being "de-electrified" due to the theft of overhead cables and transformers.
Such thefts are already a problem, the main deterrent is the risk of electrocution.
If however the power was off due to a rota power cut then theft would be much easier and possibly widespread.

In addition we should remember that rural electrification has never been profitable, it was largely done in the 1960s as a government job creation programme, and to improve living standards in country districts. Much of the equipment installed in the 1960s is now reaching the end of its life and will require replacement. who's going to pay?

As an example, a friend of my mothers lives in a remote area of Somerset. to serve just three dwellings, the power company have to maintain at least a mile of high voltage line, two transformers, and about half a mile of lower voltage overhead line. I very much doubt that this is profitable. If the company where not legally required to provide a supply, then I doubt that they would do so."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I posted the above seven years ago, interesting to see that TPTB are now concerned at the theft of electrical infrastructure especially when it is dead during extended or repeated outages.
If this comes to pass, some hard decisions will have to made as to whether the human rights of copper thieves are more important than rural electricity supply.

I don't think it would be too much to ask the guys down at the scrap yard to inquire about how a lot of used wire came into the possession of a seller. Or the cops might hang out down to the yard or install a security camera there to smoke out some thieves.
As to the cost of rural electricity I think when all things are considered it is a bargain. The quality safety and volume of the food produced on the farms goes up at lower costs and rural property values go up for all land served. To not electrify a region reduces the population to second class citizens and drives them off the land and into the cities.
What city dweller could persuade his wife and children to vacation in a county cottage that was sans power? It may take a lot of line between existing homes when first installed but the gaps tend to get filled in over the years so the users per mile of line tend to rise over time.
I and my father before me have been members of the same REA co op sense the lines were first installed in 1946. The original government loans have long sense been paid off and the books balance with ongoing upgrades and maintenance.
Recently had a storm here that put down a lot of lines and I was without line power for three nights and two days. It was a bit of a reminder about how useful REA power is and at 22 cents per KWH a true bargain.

[kenneal - lagger]

Vt, you have to remember that "we are two nations separated by a common language." We have problems with some of the words we use let alone abbreviations.

REA? I doubt that that means Renewable Energy Association!

[vtsnowedin]

Vt, you have to remember that "we are two nations separated by a common language." We have problems with some of the words we use let alone abbreviations.

REA? I doubt that that means Renewable Energy Association!

Rural Electrification Administration. One of the few government programs that has proven to be well worth the cost.

[Mr. Fox]

Part of FDR's 'New Deal' in the '30s, wasn't it? A damned pinko commie idea if ever I heard one.

VTS: The scrap dealers (sorry... "metal recyclers!") in the UK now have to register with the local authority, are subject to (no-warrant) searches and have to be able to prove the provenance of metal they buy. This means recording names/vehicle registration numbers at a minimum, or generally setting up an account (no more 'cash at the gate').

Once you're in, you'll find a galaxy of posters depicting cross-sections of every cable under the sun + details of where you probably nicked it from (telecoms, road, rail etc), next to others detailing the potential fines/sentence etc. And cameras!

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scra ... into-force

As far as getting a rural UK property connected to the grid these days, the customer pays the full whack. I've a few old customers who were faced with £30-40k quotes for electrification (<1 mile, conservation law dictated 'no overheads', potential newts on the ground etc) - which made the prospect of a big fat off-grid PV an easy sell!

For the record, I know of several 'off-grid' households that still don't even have a decent PV/RE system, and they do OK... Now there's resilience! I know where I'm headed when the lights go out.

[vtsnowedin]

Part of FDR's 'New Deal' in the '30s, wasn't it? A damned pinko commie idea if ever I heard one.

VTS: The scrap dealers (sorry... "metal recyclers!") in the UK now have to register with the local authority, are subject to (no-warrant) searches and have to be able to prove the provenance of metal they buy. This means recording names/vehicle registration numbers at a minimum, or generally setting up an account (no more 'cash at the gate').

Once you're in, you'll find a galaxy of posters depicting cross-sections of every cable under the sun + details of where you probably nicked it from (telecoms, road, rail etc), next to others detailing the potential fines/sentence etc. And cameras!

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scra ... into-force

As far as getting a rural UK property connected to the grid these days, the customer pays the full whack. I've a few old customers who were faced with £30-40k quotes for electrification (<1 mile, conservation law dictated 'no overheads', potential newts on the ground etc) - which made the prospect of a big fat off-grid PV an easy sell!

For the record, I know of several 'off-grid' households that still don't even have a decent PV/RE system, and they do OK... Now there's resilience! I know where I'm headed when the lights go out.

Yes first executive order was from FDR in 1935 but it was put on a sound financial basis and continued on long after the other "Rake leaves" depression programs were scraped. Here is a bit from a report to congress when they had just about got as much done as they could.

REA's record of principal and interest collections has been excellent.As of December 31,1981 ,REA had collected more than $9.2billion in principal and interest payments from its rural electric and telephone borrowers. Total losses to date have amounted to only $44,478.

After 1970 or so they started making customers pay the cost of any line extensions Lately about $1800 per pole with poles 300 ft. apart. No nonsense about burying the lines to save the view.