Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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UndercoverElephant
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Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57780940
Lebanon's two main power plants were switched off on Friday, plunging much of the country into a near-total blackout.

The shutdown - caused by the two plants running out of fuel - worsens a crisis that has seen people receive just two hours of electricity a day.

A lack of foreign currency has made it hard to pay overseas energy suppliers.

Pharmacies have also gone on strike over medicine shortages caused by the failure to pay foreign importers.

Lebanon's two biggest power stations, Deir Ammar and Zahrani - which together provide about 40% of the country's electricity - shut down on Friday, their owner Electricite Du Liban (EDL) said.

Ships loaded with gas oil had refused to offload the fuel before money was transferred to their owners' accounts in dollars.
In the eastern city of Zahle, EDL asked residents to reduce their consumption to a minimum, saying the "power supply has been cut across Lebanese territories indefinitely".
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adam2
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

Post by adam2 »

Last week Iran, this week Lebanon, next week ?

Power failures are to be expected, breakdowns happen, but these recent blackouts are not brief breakdowns but are more systematic and possibly long term.
Who was it who said that the collapse starts with large scale grid outages, Jared diamond ?
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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adam2 wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:27 pm Last week Iran, this week Lebanon, next week ?

Power failures are to be expected, breakdowns happen, but these recent blackouts are not brief breakdowns but are more systematic and possibly long term.
Who was it who said that the collapse starts with large scale grid outages, Jared diamond ?
The long-term nature of the problem is crucial, yes. Once people start believing that the power may well never come back on then civilisation as we know it has ended.
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Mark
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

Post by Mark »

The Philippines too....

Rotating brownouts hit Luzon as high temperatures raise power demand:
https://business.inquirer.net/323945/ro ... -hit-luzon

They had them when I was there back in the 90s, so I guess nothing new for them...
As soon as the power went, the locals would switch to diesel generators....
It gets really tough when there's no diesel either...
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adam2
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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Rolling blackouts in the Philippines are in my view less noteworthy. Regular power cuts are a normal feature in developing countries and people are used to them.

The situation in Lebanon or Iran is more serious because they look like a longer term or systematic issue. If Lebanon lacks the money to buy fuel today, are they likely to have more money next week ? Remembering that the sellers will want real money such as UK pounds or US dollars not the almost worthless local "money"

If Iran has insufficient water to operate the hydroelectric plants, then this wont improve until heavy rain, and is likely to be an ever recurring problem if electricity demand exceeds water supply.

Long term power cuts also carry two other risks.
Firstly equipment long out of use tends to suffer damage. Lubricating oil becomes ineffective, or is removed for other uses. Damp gets into transformer and alternator windings, vermin cause various problems, underground cables shrink slightly and admit damp into imperfect joints. Batteries for controls, instruments and switchgear operation suffer damage from deep discharge.

Secondly, infrastructure is very vulnerable to theft if known to be dead.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Does anyone know what Lebanon exports to earn foreign currency to pay for the imported oil? I don't suppose that there has been much tourism lately what with war, the port explosion and then covid putting people off. I don't suppose that the will get much charitable money from Iran at the moment because of Iran's problems. And Sunni countries aren't going to help a country under the influence of Iran. Should the West be helping a country with a large Christian population in the Middle East?
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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Mark
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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kenneal - lagger wrote: Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:09 pm Does anyone know what Lebanon exports ?
Red Lebanese ?
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/23/midd ... index.html
Lebanon's water supply system is on the verge of total collapse, according to the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), in what would mark the latest development in the eastern Mediterranean country's slide into chaos.
More than 71% of the country's population -- over 4 million people including 1 million refugees -- are at immediate risk of losing access to safe water, UNICEF said on Friday.
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BritDownUnder
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

Post by BritDownUnder »

There is a large Lebanese diaspora which probably provides a lot of income from more stable countries including Australia. I have little knowledge or understanding of Lebanon but some Lebanese get a bad rap in Australia for criminality - I think they are, by ethnicity, far and away the highest offending per capita ethnic group in Australia followed by Vietnamese and then New Zealanders.

The present situation is a good indicator for the future of countries that are probably ill conceived (by French planners in the 1920s trying make a country with a Christian majority, at the time, that could no doubt be influenced by France), have weak government and few domestic resources including food production. Just having one of these attributes makes a country precarious, having all three is downright suicidal.

As the old saying goes, things will probably get worse before they get better over there.
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adam2
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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A later report is here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-mid ... t-57988693

Shortages of water now general, as it is often pumped electrically, or by diesel engines. Fuel for private generating plant now scarce and expensive. Diesel fuel is only available for hard currency, not for the almost worthless local "money"
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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adam2 wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:15 am A later report is here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-mid ... t-57988693

Shortages of water now general, as it is often pumped electrically, or by diesel engines. Fuel for private generating plant now scarce and expensive. Diesel fuel is only available for hard currency, not for the almost worthless local "money"
I cannot see any way back from Lebanon. It is a trailblazer for what is likely to happen in many other countries in the coming years. First you lose stable government, then the currency starts collapsing, then you lose the government completely, then you lose the power, water, imported medicines and essential spare parts. Finally the food supply fails and people start dying.
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adam2
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Re: Lebanon disappearing off the map...

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Ongoing lack of electricity and of petrol/diesel fuel.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-mid ... t-58494832
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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