New Kevin Anderson lecture

[clv101]

From 30:14. This is a really clear description of our condition:
https://youtu.be/2YMpz0nd9Ns?t=1814

[UndercoverElephant]

OK I watched that and it just confirmed what I already believed: we are already completely and utterly f*ck*d. The problems we face are getting larger. In terms of where we are, relative to where we need to be, we aren't just failing to move in the right direction quickly enough - we are still moving in the wrong direction. Put another way: the challenges we face are getting bigger all the time rather than smaller. Even this on its own wouldn't mean its all over, but when you look at the bigger picture at what is going on in the world - politically, socially, economically - then it becomes clear that causes of why we're still moving in the wrong direction have no prospect of being solved any time soon. Which is the killer, because time is exactly what we don't have.

At some point the message has to change. We have to plan for the future that is actually going to happen, not one that we're desperately clinging onto in utterly futile hope because the one that is actually going to happen involves politically-unacceptable realities.

[johnhemming2]

I watched a bit. He rightly emphasises the issue that annual carbon emissions add to the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere and hence it is the carbon budget that is key. However, I don't think many governments are likely pay a lot more than lip service to the issue, much that the support for renewables is something to be encouraged. (I mean across the world)

The increasing support for populists will also reduce the level of activity on carbon emissions.

[clv101]

Indeed John, which implies we are looking at +3, +4C... which is a different world. This isn't the narrative we're getting from politics or science though, we're still being sold junk about 2C or even 1.5C.

[PS_RalphW]

similarly, global population is still rising, and in fact accelerating, rather than falling.

Population is now rising at 86 million / year, a few years ago it was 80 million.

Resilience is now all we can plan for, the ability to adapt to the unpredictable. Sustainable is no longer an option in our lifetimes.

[woodburner]

No worries, 37 years of oil, 150 years of gas and 400 years of coal left. Should be able to get the temperature up a bit with that lot.

http://www.worldometers.info

[PS_RalphW]

Today is UK's hottest September day since 1947. So far.

Globally, August was joint hottest month on record, tied with July, and the hottest August by an (until this year) unprecedented large margin.

The arctic sea ice has at least passed annual minimum, just pipping 2007 for second lowest by most measures. Ice volume minimum will be the last data released, in a few weeks.

Edit

Hottest September day since 1911

[UndercoverElephant]

Today is UK's hottest September day since 1947. So far.

Please don't say that. I was kind of hoping some fungi would fruit this year. Not much happening so far down south. I need the temperature to drop, fast.

[clv101]

Seems we're hottest Sept since 1911 now, 34.4C in Gravesend, Kent. Also the latest the hottest day of the year has even occurred.

Globally, August was joint hottest month on record, tied with July...

Which is interesting as July is usually hotter than August.

[PS_RalphW]

http://xkcd.com/1732/

The hockey stick in terms of human development.

[UndercoverElephant]

Well I dreamed I saw the silver
space ships flying
In the yellow haze of the sun
There were children crying
and colors flying
All around the chosen ones
All in a dream, all in a dream
The loading had begun
Flying Mother Nature's silver seed
to a new home in the sun
Flying Mother Nature's silver seed
to a new home