Met office meeting to look at recent UK weather

[nexus]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/1 ... ther-cause

Washout summers. Flash floods. Freezing winters. Snow in May. Droughts. There is a growing sense that something is happening to our weather. But is it simply down to natural variability, or is climate change to blame?

To try to answer the question the Met Office is hosting an unprecedented meeting of climate scientists and meteorologists next week to debate the possible causes of the UK's "disappointing" weather over recent years, the Guardian has learned.

Tuesday's meeting at the forecaster's HQ in Exeter is being convened in response to this year's cool spring, which, according to official records, was the coldest in 50 years

..................the attendees will discuss a range of possible causes, including melting Arctic sea ice, changes to ocean currents in the north Atlantic, and alterations to the jet stream.

They will examine the current state of the science regarding these possible drivers and identify what further research is needed, and a discussion about whether climate models need to be revised to take into account any recent changes to weather patterns, not just in the UK but across the rest of Europe. This week, the National Farmers Union said that 30% less wheat than normal was being grown in the UK this year due to the recent weather.

[snow hope]

Thank goodness there is some sense prevailing and natural variability is being seriously put forth as an explanation possibility....

[biffvernon]

I wonder what that word 'natural' means?

[kenneal - lagger]

Thank goodness there is some sense prevailing and natural variability is being seriously put forth as an explanation possibility....

They seem to be questioning natural variability rather than putting it forward.

I hope that they look into solar cycles as well but take into account the underlying warming trend produced by increased CO2.

[emordnilap]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/1 ... ther-cause

..................the attendees will discuss a range of possible causes, including melting Arctic sea ice, changes to ocean currents in the north Atlantic, and alterations to the jet stream.

These are causes?

[cubes]

Well, they could be causes of changing weather patterns in the UK.

[emordnilap]

Yeah, like cancer is a cause of death.

[Tarrel]

Well, yes. Bear in mind the meeting was to discuss changing weather patterns, not climate.

I think there is a benefit in pointing to variations in the climate as a cause of changing weather. It clearly separates the two, but links them. Too often the climate debate is weakened by confusion between the use of the terms Climate and Weather. Linking weather changes directly to CO2 emissions is too easily written off as "global warming hysteria", and too easily falls foul of the "yeah, but we've had snow in May before" argument.

Linking jet stream modulation to melting sea ice is a fairly straightforward meteorological argument to make, based on years of understanding about how the weather works. "TV weatherman" stuff. It SHOULD then open the door to the question; "Ah, but why is the sea ice melting?"

[biffvernon]

There has also been the curious chasm of communication and understanding between certain meteorologists and climatologists.

[clv101]

There has also been the curious chasm of communication and understanding between certain meteorologists and climatologists.

There have been and continue to be some fairly fundamental differences between the two disciplines, however, the two groups are leaning from each other. The Met Office especially is trying to move the two areas closer.