IPCC Watch

[emordnilap]

Water Extremely Likely Wet. Pope Extremely Likely Catholic. CC Extremely Likely Man Made.

[RenewableCandy]

You forgot the bit about the bears

[raspberry-blower]

And the lead item on Radio 4 News at One rolled out Bob Carter, Aussie denialist:

http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/07/09/au ... ial-groups

What is it with the BBC?

Earlier this morning on Radio 4 Horbin had explained that they had failed to find a single working scientist in Britain who opposed the IPCC position. So they turn to a retired and sacked from his unpaid post Australian!

This might give you a clue, Biff..

[raspberry-blower]

That's it - we're fecked

[biffvernon]

A twitter digression:

Post-Carbon Living ‏@TTWycombe27 Sep
Next up on the BBC: some bloke who still believes in phlogiston http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory … ...you know, just for balance.

Post-Carbon Living ‏@TTWycombe27 Sep
because every fundamental, world-changing, truth has to be "balanced" by a load of old codswallop so we can get both sides of every story.

Biff Vernon ‏@transitionlouth27 Sep
The BBC are still giving air time to climate denialists. Bring on flat Earth defenders too, why don't they?

Biff Vernon ‏@transitionlouth3h
@TTWycombe @REconomyProject Why doesn't every travel programme come with a comment from a Flat Earther, just for balance?

Retweeted by:

Tom Harrison
@TomBHarrison
Earth Notes
@EarthOrgUK
Rob Hopkins
@robintransition
Post-Carbon Living
@TTWycombe
Craig Clarke
@clarke_74

Paul Metz‏@PaulEMetz
Brilliant ! @transitionlouth: Why doesn't every travel programme come with a comment from a Flat Earther, just for balance? @robintransition

Retweeted by
Jorge Stolfi
@JorgeStolfi

Phil Randal
@philrandal

Rob Hopkins ‏@robintransition35m
@PaulEMetz @transitionlouth Every cookery show could have a Breatharian arguing you really don't actually need to eat at all. For balance.

Paul Metz ‏@PaulEMetz28m
@robintransition @transitionlouth Yes ! And what untapped potential do sports shows have .. #cowardsbalance

Rob Hopkins ‏@robintransition18m
@PaulEMetz @transitionlouth X Factor should have had someone who, at the end of Susan Boyle's first appearance said "bit crap that" #balance

[woodburner]

A good example of how useless twitter is. If it was scrapped a lot of fuel would be saved.

[woodburner]

The problem with climate change is that it is theory. You can believe it, or not. Either way it is a matter of faith. To be scientific, an experiment with a control is needed,and we are not going to find another planet to use as a control.

[biffvernon]

A good example of how useless twitter is. If it was scrapped a lot of fuel would be saved.

Well I wouldn't bother sharing the serious stuff - it's too serious, whereas PowerSwitch is all comedy, so here's another:
Post-Carbon Living
‏@TTWycombe
@transitionlouth @REconomyProject Yup - henceforth all Astronomy programs comes with a guy who swears the moon is made of cheese.

[biffvernon]

The problem with climate change is that it is theory. You can believe it, or not. Either way it is a matter of faith. To be scientific, an experiment with a control is needed,and we are not going to find another planet to use as a control.

The key experiment was described in this paper:
"On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction", John Tyndall, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Volume 151, pages 1-36, 1861 "
Pure science, no belief or faith involved.

[Blue Peter]

The key experiment was described in this paper:
"On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction", John Tyndall, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Volume 151, pages 1-36, 1861 "
Pure science, no belief or faith involved.

Could one even say, that to falsify the hypothesis of global warming, one would have to show that this and all similar experiments were wrong?


Peter.

[PS_RalphW]

The experiment is not wrong. The results are and have been endlessly repeated. The question (which has almost entirely been answered) is if the results of this experiment can be extrapolated to the atmosphere as a whole. Modelling entire planets is a massive undertaking even if the underlying physics and chemistry is well understood. Add in biological feedbacks and the problem space explodes.

There is more than enough human derived CO2 and methane entering the atmosphere to alter surface temperatures substantially. The question is how fast is the extra CO2 and/or heat is being removed again by physical, geological and biological processes and whether these sinks are sustainable, exhibit positive or negative feedbacks, or could even tip from negative to positive feedbacks, leading to run away warming.

Most of the extra heat is currently going into the oceans. They are the primary driver of the global weather systems.

[biffvernon]

The question is how fast is the extra CO2 ... is being removed again by physical, geological and biological processes and whether these sinks are sustainable,

That bit isn't at question. We have very precise measurements of just how fast the CO2 concentration in the air is rising.

It's just the precise date of doom that is hard to get quite right.

[clv101]

The final draft of the full (Working Group 1) report is now available here:
http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/review-drafts/

Amongst some 9200 papers, it cites a paper I wrote last year.

[biffvernon]

Yo!

Only 166MB worth of PDFs. I'll just read it before bedtime.

There is ... high confidence in projections of Greenland surface mass balance,... There has been substantial progress in ice-sheet modelling, particularly for
Greenland

Chapter 13, page 3.

This recent trend towards increasingly less positive SMB is caused almost entirely by increased melting and
subsequent runoff

Chapter 13, page 18.

[emordnilap]

"Industrial civilisation is a trap. Other civilisations have been able to collapse and we've been able to walk away from that."