Arctic Ice Watch

[vtsnowedin]

Well this mega storm should have come to pass by now. Has anyone anything to report? Gales in Scotland as predicted? Some weather information of actual conditions at the pole?
Anyone?

[clv101]

This is the website that I got the predictions from. He is a well respected weather and climate change blogger.

Not quite sure what 'well respected' means. It's a popular blog because he's a great writer, reproduces lots of interesting charts and includes references. It's accessible. One needs to remember though he's a novelist, not a scientist.

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robertscribbler
I'm a progressive novelist, non-fiction writer and emerging threats expert. I've served 8 years in the combat arms, spent 3 years as a police officer, and spent 3 years as Editor, Emerging Threats for Jane's Information Group. I've spoken at over 250 events for schools nationwide and am currently working to both complete my third speculative fiction novel "The Death of Winter" and my second non-fic -- a climate justice based book called "Abolition -- Ending the Resource Curse," and a climate/emerging threats book entitled "The Second Great Dying."

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[johnhemming2]

This gives a GFS of the northern hemisphere

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... IV=0&RES=0

It may not work as a direct link, but the site will give such a map.

[vtsnowedin]

This gives a GFS of the northern hemisphere

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... IV=0&RES=0

It may not work as a direct link, but the site will give such a map.

Thanks John.
It took me a bit of study to orient myself on that map. Looks like the "thaw" was very over stated. Lots of minus 25 Cs in Siberia and upper Canada as well.

[johnhemming2]

The difficulty, of course, is not having the historic records. They do exist, but I don't have them to hand.

There is an interesting question as to whether as the albedo goes down and also the level of radiant energy from sea water goes up (if indeed it does) what the net effect of that is on arctic water where the level of radiant energy from the sun is lower than in say Africa.

I don't have any of the figures on this, but it is a useful area of investigation as to whether the energy absorbed goes up or down.

[biffvernon]

There is an interesting question as to whether .... the energy absorbed goes up or down.

It goes up, by a lot!

A quick glance at this: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/pro ... lbedo.html
shows we are talking about an order of magnitude!

[johnhemming2]

That, however, is only one of the three variables. The other two being the amount of energy available per sq metre and the amount radiated or indeed evaporated.

[vtsnowedin]

You do realize of course that for at least ninety days of the year there is zero albebo effect as there is zero sunlight hitting the surface?

[kenneal - lagger]

There is still, I think, an albedo effect as whereas cold white snow and ice will radiate little heat into the dark sky the dark warmer water will radiate quite a bit of heat and thus increase the air temperature.

Even if the air temperature at the North Pole was above freezing it doesn't necessarily mean that there is enough heat to melt through the ice to sea water. Depends how deep the ice is and how warm the water under the ice and how long and to what level the temperature is above freezing.

[johnhemming2]

It is the ice on land we have to particularly worry about anyway. Obviously during the arctic winter the sea will lose energy in that area rather than gain it. What happens to the earth including the air is not something I have enough information to suggest reliably although one would presume there is some energy loss through IR.

[biffvernon]

What happens to the earth including the air is not something I have enough information to suggest reliably...

so maybe it's best to rely on the folk who do know. https://nsidc.org/

[johnhemming2]

The link, however, does not directly answer that question.

Let me be clear I do believe that CO2 levels in the atmosphere affect the climate and that we should be moving away from Fossil fuel use. However, I don't think exaggerating things helps the argument.

[PS_RalphW]

My particular concerns with the arctic ice are

1. Loss of ice is dramatically affecting the the wildlife - obviously the larger mammals but also the aquatic food chain.

2. The ice is a huge heat sink in summer, absorbing a lot of energy out of the atmosphere, and keeping polar temperatures close to freezing. Once the water is ice free in summer it will almost certainly affect northern hemisphere weather patterns, in currently unknowable ways

3. Open water's lower albedo will amplify heat absorption in the summer, amplifying the above effect, and possibly creating a positive feedback on global warming.

4. Once the sea ice is gone, the higher summer temperatures will accelerate land ice and permafrost melt.

[biffvernon]

I don't think exaggerating things helps the argument.

Who has been exaggerating?

[kenneal - lagger]

The point that Hansen made was that scientists have been consistently conservative in their papers and pronouncements and politicians have consistently played down the problems bought up by the scientists. This has been going on for so long now that we are approaching crunch time and politicians are still no giving the matter anything like the prominence and urgency that it deserves.

No! No one is exaggerating anything.