Multi-breadbasket failure

[BritDownUnder]

I will have a look for some 'sunflower' oil today and see what country it comes from. EDIT: I got some but on the bottle it only said that it was NOT made in Australia. Could be a market opportunity there as when I was coming back from Sydney Airport yesterday I noticed some sunflowers growing by the side of the road. So far no food shortages in Australia except for Covid induced meat shortages. You can never have enough storage of food in my opinion. We normally us olive oil for cooking. I even grew some olive trees for a while but they got too big and other trees like citrus produced more food for the same size.

Australia had a bumper wheat harvest this year and a few countries benefited from China not wanting the barley produced here - I think Saudi Arabia and Sudan bought some as well as the UK. Australian harvests cannot be relied upon year after year like more stable weather countries. Probably only one year in five is a good harvest here.

China's hoarding is a long term thing as it is an issue of survival for the Communist Party. They will probably get strung up on lamp posts if they fail to get food into China as they are no longer self sufficient. No doubt China was kept in the loop on Russia's intentions for Ukraine.

[clv101]

More on food crisis: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60623941

We are so screwed.

[BritDownUnder]

We are so screwed.

Mankind has overshot. It'll be a hard time pulling back from it. Nature doesn't negotiate.

I found the following quote at the end of a YouTube documentary which is called "Dialog between Nature and an Icelander" about a volcanic eruption.
YouTube video here (last minute of video) and the full dialog here.

Nature speaking.

Thinkest thou then that the world was made for thee? It is time thou knewest that in my designs, operations, and decrees, I never gave a thought to the happiness or unhappiness of man. If I cause you to suffer, I am unaware of the fact; nor do I perceive that I can in any way give you pleasure. What I do is in no sense done for your enjoyment or benefit, as you seem to think. Finally, if I by chance exterminated your species, I should not know it.

[kenneal - lagger]

This could lead to a huge push towards organic farming which doesn't rely on nutrients from other countries. It would take several years to convert most farms to efficient organic production though but the overall losses in organic production would be less than the losses caused by the unavailability of manufactured fertilisers.

[BritDownUnder]

This could lead to a huge push towards organic farming which doesn't rely on nutrients from other countries. It would take several years to convert most farms to efficient organic production though but the overall losses in organic production would be less than the losses caused by the unavailability of manufactured fertilisers.

As well as that would there not need to be a lot of conversion of sewage treatment plants to recover phosphates and potash instead of just discharging it into rivers and losing it to the sea? From what I understand Russia and Belarus are major potash exporters, Morocco is the go-to place for Phosphates so they are not at risk so far.

I am not sure how organic farming regenerates potash and phosphates from the soil.

[clv101]

Oh dear, been officially denied now.

Commons leader Mark Spencer told MPs this week: 'There is no prospect of food shortages at any point in the future, and Defra are working with Treasury to try and make sure that that continues to be the case.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... utumn.html

[adam2]

Oh dear, been officially denied now.

Commons leader Mark Spencer told MPs this week: 'There is no prospect of food shortages at any point in the future, and Defra are working with Treasury to try and make sure that that continues to be the case.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... utumn.html

Oh dear.

Guide to government announcements, and the real meanings thereof.

"there is no prospect of shortages of food, fuel, nor any risk of bank runs and related panics" Means be concerned start preparing.

"Do not panic" means that the situation is serious or about to become serious.

"GO IN, STAY IN, TUNE IN" Time to panic, the government ARE in a panic. They do not want panic stricken mobs rushing around.

"It is the duty of all citizens to support their lawfully elected government against any attempt that may be made to overthrow it" Means that such an attempt is already underway, and that the end is near.

[BritDownUnder]

I hear that China has amassed reserves amounting to 80% of the total world wheat storage. Says it all really.

No signs of panic hear in Australia at the moment. Too much in the news about flooding and yet another police shooting of an aboriginal.

[clv101]

China's been building food stockpiles for a decade.

With 18% global population, now holds over half the world's grain.

"China is expected to have 69% of the globe's maize reserves in the first half of crop year 2022, 60% of its rice and 51% of its wheat."

Compare/contrast with UK stockpile?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Dataw ... bal-prices

[adam2]

I expect a shortage of cooking oil, or at least a substantial price increase, any day now.
Not JUST due to climate change and the war reducing production, but also the increased price of diesel fuel.

White diesel is currently about £1-70 a litre.
The cheaper supermarkets have 5 litre packs of cooking oil for less than £1 a litre.
There is a clear incentive right now to put a mixture of diesel fuel and veg oil into a diesel vehicle.
In warm weather SOME diesel vehicles will run correctly on 100% vegetable oil.

I expect that cooking oil may soon have a de facto minimum price about the same as diesel.

[BritDownUnder]

Compare/contrast with UK stockpile?

I'd be inclined to ask, what stockpile? Market forces, free trade, private sector etc etc. There are going to be some hard lessons learned quite soon.

I did hear about cooking oil being used in taxis etc. Supposedly a special force of police - dubbed by the tabloids the "Frying Squad" - was formed last time the prices went up to catch and prosecute offenders. Maybe you could run an oil fired Rayburn on the stuff too. I am not sure about the calorific value, viscosity, flash temperature being the same but someone that knows more about engines could probably tell us.

If I still lived in the UK I would be hoarding so much stuff.