Multi-breadbasket failure

[clv101]

This is sitting at or near the top of my personal 'risk register'. Food is obviously vital and the global food system is under unprecedented attack/pressure right now. This situation isn't going to improve and I think it's only a matter of time (under 5 years) before the global food system failure becomes the number one issue of immediate concern.

This long Twitter thread brings together a huge number of current observations and research/reports.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1433 ... 26052.html

[clv101]

Gas price surge triggers UK fertiliser plant closures and crop warnings https://on.ft.com/3nHg1NP

Soaring gas prices have forced the closure of two large UK fertiliser plants, sparking warnings of a looming shortage of ammonium nitrate that could hit food supplies as record energy prices start to reverberate through the global economy.

New York-listed CF Industries Holdings, one of the world’s biggest fertiliser groups, said it did “not have an estimate for when production will resume” at its plants in Teesside and Cheshire in the north of England, which supply roughly 40 per cent of the UK fertiliser market

On the face of it this seems serious. There aren't huge stockpiles, it needs to be bought and applied at specific times of year. In 'normal times' production would very closely match demand. If 40% of production is off-line for weeks there *will* be shortages which will impact yields.  ...another term in the multiple breadbasket failure equation.

[BritDownUnder]

I did not think about that but most hydrogen is currently made from methane so maybe electrolysis has just become more economic.
Either that or people had better learn to eat less.

[clv101]

Seems these off-line fertiliser plants also produced a significant amount of industrial CO2 (as a product not waste), add another product to the shortage basket.

[kenneal - lagger]

And the shortage of CO2 is affecting the meat packing industry as most packaged meat is packed in CO2. Many animals are stunned using it as well although I would have thought that would refer to poultry. The smaller abattoirs that I use use electrical stunning for cattle, sheep and pigs.

I am worried about future food shortages which is why I am against mass immigration and the government's happiness to rely on food imports.

[adam2]

I suspect that the fertilizer plants will soon reopen.
Reports state that the American owners are in/soon will be in talks with our government.

I expect that some form of grant, subsidy or other bung will be paid to justify operation that would otherwise be uneconomic. Such payments may be justified under present circumstances. Fertilizer could be imported, but supplies might be tight elsewhere as gas prices are high worldwide.
Subsidising UK manufacture MIGHT be preferable to imports.

Carbon dioxide can not be readily imported. Bulk carbon dioxide is prohibited via the channel tunnel and most vehicle ferries wont allow it.

The only realistic way to import useful volumes would be by road tankers on a barge under tow and not manned, or in road tankers aboard a small ship with extra precautions in case of accident.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58615784

[clv101]

If the market is tight, prices are high just throwing more money at it won't necessarily help, someone, somewhere will be priced out. If not UK fertiliser manufacturers, who's next in line?

[mikepepler]

It made me wonder where the CO2 will come from when fossil fuels are (eventually) no longer in use? Will this be the market for direct air capture, not to sequester the CO2 but to sell it for food use? Or maybe we'll be eating less meat and there'll be less demand by then?

[adam2]

There is another way to produce carbon dioxide for the food industry without any direct reliance on fossil fuels.

Until relatively recently, most prepared carbon dioxide was produced by Distillers PLC, a noted manufacturer of distilled spirits. It is not the actual distillation that produces the carbon dioxide, but the prior process of fermentation.
To produce say whiskey, a mash is first fermented in a similar way to the brewing of beer. The fermented liquid is then distilled. Fermentation is carried on a huge scale and the carbon dioxide was until recently captured, purified, and sold in cylinders or bulk tanks for many purposes.

Fairly recently this was discontinued as utilising the by product of fertiliser production was cheaper. I see no great problems in reinstating the old process. Demand for distilled spirits is fairly consistent, and large scale production is spread over several sites which ensured a reliable supply.

Many modern distilleries DO use considerable fossil fuel for heating and other purposes. It is not however an essential part of the process but simply an energy source. Renewably produced electricity could be used instead.

[mikepepler]

There is another way to produce carbon dioxide for the food industry without any direct reliance on fossil fuels.

Until relatively recently, most prepared carbon dioxide was produced by Distillers PLC, a noted manufacturer of distilled spirits. It is not the actual distillation that produces the carbon dioxide, but the prior process of fermentation.

Good point, and an excuse to drink beer too!

[adam2]

Yes, but, most of the carbon dioxide was from distilleries not breweries.
Gas from the brewing of beer COULD be used, but the larger volumes from industrial scale distilleries were favoured.

[BritDownUnder]

I would have thought that with beer and similar beverages the CO2 stays in the beer to make it 'fizzy'.

I looked at where Australia gets it industrial CO2 and it looks like most come from the natural gas industry where CO2 is separated from natural gas and then is sent to the industrial gasses companies such as BOC (another fine British company taken over by foreigners don't you know) for purification. Since it does not have a lot on 'onshore' gas production maybe this is not such an option in the UK.

[kenneal - lagger]

Most of the CO2 is produced during the initial fermentation in the vat. The gas in the cask is sometimes put there by a secondary fermentation but more often now, as with most bottled beers, it is industrial gas injected into the clarified beer.

[clv101]

Dammit, global food crisis is here. I was thinking within 5 years, not five months when starting this thread:

See this:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets ... .html?btis

[kenneal - lagger]

I've just suggested to my wife and daughter that they should get an extra bottle of cooking oil and some flour in as a stock before the shortages arrive. Wife agrees but daughter refuses as "that is the behaviour which creates shortages"!!