Question from Glen Peters on Twitter:
Do you expect global COâ‚‚ emissions to rise or fall by 2030 compared to today?
A lot of factors to consider in this. I think we're likely to see a global emissions peak in the coming decade, but don't think there'll have been much decline so 2030 will be significantly higher than today but will be on a negative trajectory.
Wildcards such as a global economic crash of greater magnitude than 2008, pandemic etc could drag emissions unpredictably lower.
Global CO2 emissions poll
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Rise.
1. In spite of coal being on the way out in the developed world and China building renewables as fast as they can, India and the rest of the developing world are still expanding coal as the cheapest way to full electrification.
2. Oil consumption is still rising, with the global fashion for SUVs and trucks vastly offsetting the oil savings from electrification. 10 years from now we may be past peak production, but not by much, and with more and more low EROEI sources like tar sands being tapped, the net CO2 emissions will still be rising.
3. NG production, particularly LNG will still be still rising, LNG has higher net CO2 because of the energy used in liquefaction and gasification.
4. The rain forests will still be being cut down for agricultural land. Forest fires will be ever larger and more widespread as the planet warms.
5. As the permafrost melts huge amounts of methane and some CO2 will be released. By 2030 this will be past tipping point and climate change will be irreversible in the next 1000 years.
1. In spite of coal being on the way out in the developed world and China building renewables as fast as they can, India and the rest of the developing world are still expanding coal as the cheapest way to full electrification.
2. Oil consumption is still rising, with the global fashion for SUVs and trucks vastly offsetting the oil savings from electrification. 10 years from now we may be past peak production, but not by much, and with more and more low EROEI sources like tar sands being tapped, the net CO2 emissions will still be rising.
3. NG production, particularly LNG will still be still rising, LNG has higher net CO2 because of the energy used in liquefaction and gasification.
4. The rain forests will still be being cut down for agricultural land. Forest fires will be ever larger and more widespread as the planet warms.
5. As the permafrost melts huge amounts of methane and some CO2 will be released. By 2030 this will be past tipping point and climate change will be irreversible in the next 1000 years.
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emordnilap
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kenneal - lagger
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I agree with Ralph in his post above.
The only thing which will stop a rise is another, greater, economic crash as people in big business, stock exchanges and banks around the world will carry on promoting growth, sustainable or otherwise, as they are suffering from a form of OCD, Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.
They don't know when to stop making money and they can never have enough and they are driven. They will bribe and coerce politicians to enable their sick needs to be satiated until the planet cannot stand the consequent battering any longer and ecosystems collapse. They will die as unfullfilled as they have lived and will take their money to their graves.
The only thing which will stop a rise is another, greater, economic crash as people in big business, stock exchanges and banks around the world will carry on promoting growth, sustainable or otherwise, as they are suffering from a form of OCD, Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.
They don't know when to stop making money and they can never have enough and they are driven. They will bribe and coerce politicians to enable their sick needs to be satiated until the planet cannot stand the consequent battering any longer and ecosystems collapse. They will die as unfullfilled as they have lived and will take their money to their graves.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Rise.
China and India.
Even so called 'western' democracies will carry on burning dirty fuel for as long as possible, Australia (thermal coal) Ireland (peat burning power stations and homes) Germany (coal).
The vested interest brigade will not give up their financial assets and willingly turn it into a worthless asset without compunction.
China and India.
Even so called 'western' democracies will carry on burning dirty fuel for as long as possible, Australia (thermal coal) Ireland (peat burning power stations and homes) Germany (coal).
The vested interest brigade will not give up their financial assets and willingly turn it into a worthless asset without compunction.
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adam2
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Agree, an increase seems probable.
Coal burning is increasing rapidly in many places including India and China.
Oil production is roughly static, it might decline a bit by 2030 but not by much.
Rising population.
Deforestation leading to release of the carbon tied up in forests.
Melting of arctic tundra and permafrost resulting in the biomass therein burning or decomposing and releasing more carbon dioxide.
Ocean warming and pollution reducing shell fish populations, these creatures sequester carbon when they die and sink to the ocean floor.
Coal burning is increasing rapidly in many places including India and China.
Oil production is roughly static, it might decline a bit by 2030 but not by much.
Rising population.
Deforestation leading to release of the carbon tied up in forests.
Melting of arctic tundra and permafrost resulting in the biomass therein burning or decomposing and releasing more carbon dioxide.
Ocean warming and pollution reducing shell fish populations, these creatures sequester carbon when they die and sink to the ocean floor.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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UndercoverElephant
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They'd fight a war to protect their vested interests, regardless of the immorality of their position or a global movement in the opposite direction. They're like the people who made the decisions on behalf of the confederate states before and during the American civil war.stumuz1 wrote: The vested interest brigade will not give up their financial assets and willingly turn it into a worthless asset without compunction.
I wouldn't go that far.UndercoverElephant wrote:They'd fight a war to protect their vested interests, regardless of the immorality of their position or a global movement in the opposite direction. They're like the people who made the decisions on behalf of the confederate states before and during the American civil war.stumuz1 wrote: The vested interest brigade will not give up their financial assets and willingly turn it into a worthless asset without compunction.
Was thinking more of the sort of people who have private pensions or work in defence contracts etc. Once fossil fuels become stranded assets a large chunk of their wealth evaporates.
The scenes at Canning Town tube station where working class commuters beat up the extinction rebellion crowd, will be mirrored by golf club wielding over 55's screaming blue murder at anyone who will listen about the diminution in their pensions.
The golf club wielding over 55's are a political force.
They will assume they have morality on their side.
BTW: I do not have a personal pension. Too long a PowerSwitch reader who has read the limits to growth!
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vtsnowedin
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I suppose the +55s don't have many baseball bats handy. Will they also riot wearing Bermuda shorts, Birkenstocks and Hawaiian shirts?-
emordnilap
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Ireland's CO2+e problems stem from (a) a dispersed population, most of whom have zero access to any form of public transport and (b) agriculture - the 8 million cattle burping methane and the pollution involved in transporting products (China's becoming a big market for Irish over-production.
On the positive front, electricity from wind generation is good and improving all the time - Airtricity has been a 100% renewable supplier for years and is a major player. Oh, and two peat-burning stations are closing and one coal burning looks like closing soon.
Ireland's not a major contributor to climate change in absolute terms but per capita, whilst there's huge room for improvement in the housing stock, for instance, it's getting better slowly. The EU fines for exceeding targets are a great help.
On the positive front, electricity from wind generation is good and improving all the time - Airtricity has been a 100% renewable supplier for years and is a major player. Oh, and two peat-burning stations are closing and one coal burning looks like closing soon.
Ireland's not a major contributor to climate change in absolute terms but per capita, whilst there's huge room for improvement in the housing stock, for instance, it's getting better slowly. The EU fines for exceeding targets are a great help.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Baseball? I think you are referring to the colonial adaptation of' rounders'vtsnowedin wrote:: I suppose the +55s don't have many baseball bats handy.
In England rounders is mostly played at 'girls' schools'
vtsnowedin wrote: Will they also riot wearing Bermuda shorts, Birkenstocks and Hawaiian shirts?
No, no. They will riot by writing a strongly worded letter! or failing that will vote labour for spite!
The over 55's played a huge role in stopping fracking in England. (it's banned in Scotland and Wales)
This was a major reversal of Gov' policy and a huge loss for the fracking company involved.
You don't have to physically riot or shoot anyone. A group of Nana's brewing tea at the gates of the fracking company does the trick
