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Potemkin Villager
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Groovy Graphic

Post by Potemkin Villager »

Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

Interesting.
The question is what are we going to do about it?
There is nothing that is going to stop the trend in the short term, and not being able to stop it will mean the system will probably change catastrophically.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

The graphs imply that atmospheric aerosols from burning fossil fuels has a nett cooling effect of a very significant half a degree. Imagine if we stopped all emissions tomorrow. As a result the aerosols would reduce in a short period of time, presumably in a similar manner to post volcanic eruptions, leading to a dangerous increase in warming!
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

This is true, has to some extent already happened with the desulphurisation of coal burning, and was demonstrated on 12/9/2001 when the US shut down all aviation and the skies turned magically blue.
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

So, attempts to reduce temperature by reducing GHG gases gradually would take a long time to kick in. Any cooling effect resulting from this would however be offset by a reduction of the cooling effect due to aerosols which will kick in relatively quickly.

Oh s**t!
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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