The Long Descent by John Greer

[Pani Kova]

Just received this from a contact (maybe one to read if you've just read The Long Emergency and are suffering from depression):

THE LONG DESCENT
John Michael Greer's new book The Long Descent is a welcome antidote to the armageddonism that often accompanies peak oil discussions.
"The decline of a civilization is rarely anything like so sudden for those who live through it" writes Greer, encouragingly; it's "a much slower and more complex transformation than the sudden catastrophes imagined by many social critics today." Greer finds it helpful to look at Russia's recent journey - from superpower status through collapse, contraction, stabilization, and recovery - as one example of where the rest of us may be headed. "Despite economic collapse, urban populations did not turn into starving mobs roving the landscape. Instead, as existing supply chains broke down, local entrepreneurs jerry-rigged new ones, and the backyard gardens of the Soviet era went into overdrive to keep most Russians fed". The changes that will follow the decline of world petroleum production are likely to be sweeping and global, Greer concludes, but from the perspective of those who live through them these changes are much more likely to take gradual and local forms. "This will make them harder to notice, but paradoxically easier to meet".
http://www.newsociety.com/bookid/4014

[Blue Peter]

Greer finds it helpful to look at Russia's recent journey - from superpower status through collapse, contraction, stabilization, and recovery - as one example of where the rest of us may be headed. "Despite economic collapse, urban populations did not turn into starving mobs roving the landscape. Instead, as existing supply chains broke down, local entrepreneurs jerry-rigged new ones, and the backyard gardens of the Soviet era went into overdrive to keep most Russians fed". The changes that will follow the decline of world petroleum production are likely to be sweeping and global, Greer concludes, but from the perspective of those who live through them these changes are much more likely to take gradual and local forms. "This will make them harder to notice, but paradoxically easier to meet".
http://www.newsociety.com/bookid/4014

It struck me that this is a rather different picture than that presented in Ken's post earlier today:

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... highlight=

The budget of the Russian Federation, circa 2000, was approximately that of New York City; police outside Moscow went years without paychecks, emergency medical care was unavailable without cash payment, and lawlessness ruled. I saw this in Russia and spoke to many Russians, most of whom had been forced to be criminals to survive. Honest members of the Duma were machine-gunned down in broad daylight in Moscow. Every member of the Moscow Businessmen’s forum (a reform group) was murdered, one using a biological weapon from the Soviet bioweapons arsenal. Banks were taken over by armed bands that literally burst into boardrooms and forced officials to sign over their banks at gunpoint. I was told in confidence by homicide police while visiting an extremely dangerous Russian city that 30% of the population was believed to have untreated syphilis and at least 25% of the city had died in the previous 7 years from homicide, suicide and starvation; but these were state secrets and anyone revealing them risked life in a prison system where a 5 year sentence had come to mean a 50% chance of survival. Death of schoolteachers, university personnel and other responsible people from starvation had become routine. Ordinary people lived in constant fear of being murdered anywhere, anytime. Girls on their way home from junior high school were raped regularly. I knew a mother who moved heaven and earth to get her daughter out. Russian orphans were bought by the thousands and shipped to Europe to be prostitutes.

At least one million had died from homicide, suicide and starvation in the reverberations of shock treatment on an unprepared population. This number is a simple extrapolation from the figures I obtained in one Russian city that had a population of 800,000 circa 1990 and logged 200,000 such deaths. It must be understood that starvation occurred with food in view in stores, because people had no money and food from aid organizations was stolen to sell on the black market. I was told of children who after serious frostbite in winter because of lack of heat in their homes ate the dead flesh of their hands and arms by a friend of a policewoman in Russia. Russia was a debtor nation, literally laughed at and dismissed by the West. The situation was beyond any tears that could ever be shed from now to eternity.

Peter.

[RenewableCandy]

I was in Russia in 1993, and to be honest I think the chap who wrote that article is hamming it up a bit (well, rather a lot actually). While there was undeniably an increase in prostitution, STDs, burglary and the occasional innocent Scottish businessman getting shot in a hotel lobby by mistake, I can't believe, for instance, that 1/4 of a city was wiped out by homicede, suicide and starvation in 7 years (unless of course someone here knows better).

The bit about being "forced to be criminals" is correct but gives the wrong impression. Both national and local levels of taxation shot up during that time, so that the total exceeded 100% of people's income. This led to a lot of non-payment of tax, rather than a lot of burglary to pay for tax.

[Blue Peter]

Cheers. I must admit that it didn't fit in with what Orlov has written - more like what he imagines for the US

I can't believe, for instance, that 1/4 of a city was wiped out by homicede, suicide and starvation in 7 years (unless of course someone here knows better).

I'd assumed that was a typoe for 2,000 or 20,000 - still pretty poor proof-reading for something quite essential!


Peter.

[Neily at the peak]

I am reading this book at the moment. The different perspective is very welcome. It is helping me to feel more positive than of late. I will report back more when I have finished.


Neil

[Neily at the peak]

I have just finished this book. I have to say it seems to me to be the most realistic but ultimately positive book I have read in a while. He talks about the de-industrial age being inevitable but that it won't happen overnight. We will go through a period of catabolic collapse possibly lasting up to two to three hundred years. I "enjoyed" it a lot I just wish that I could remember more of what I read.

Neil

[Alex1971]

Radio interview here:
http://64.141.104.34/20081109_01.wma

http://64.141.104.34/20081109_02.wma

http://64.141.104.34/20081109_03.wma

Starts about 15 mins in.

[jomtones]

Just wanted to chime in on this, my favourite book so far on peak oil/ ecotastrophe etc

[jomtones]

Thanks a lot for that radio link by the way - fascinating stuff. What a radio station though eh, makes the BBC look great!...

[welshgreen]

ive just ordered it off DODGY TAX AVOIDERS.

[jomtones]

Best book I read all year.

[Potemkin Villager]

I have just finished this book. I have to say it seems to me to be the most realistic but ultimately positive book I have read in a while. He talks about the de-industrial age being inevitable but that it won't happen overnight. We will go through a period of catabolic collapse possibly lasting up to two to three hundred years. I "enjoyed" it a lot I just wish that I could remember more of what I read.

Neil

Like a lot of American writers Greer is very fond of his own voice and showing off. He will not hesitate to use 500 words where 100 would do. This has the unfotunate effect of giving the impression he feels he has to talk very slowly as if explaining things to people with a poor grasp of anything.

This is a pity because the overall effect is to hypnotise the reader asleep and he does have a lot of stimulating ideas.

One thing in his favour is that he seems to be totally despised and berated
by the dear leader of the Transition Towns cult.

[jomtones]

It's funny but since I read this my outlook has swung round the other way... mostly since reading about exponential trends in technology in books by Kurzweil et al.

Oil? Obsolete in 16 years, as solar-power doubles in cost-price efficiency AND world-wide usage every 2 years.

We'll see eh!