Drivers in for a shock

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 15 Mar 2006, 09:20

Ireland in a Jam

?Ireland in a jam ? how Irish motorists are coping with rising oil prices? Amarach Consulting, Dublin (http://www.amarach.com/).

This recent study was based on a sample of 622 Irish motorists who use their car to travel to work. They were asked to indicate their level of support for various measures to reduce oil use as proposed by the International Energy Agency. It is possible that similar results would be obtained in many other countries as well

Not surprisingly, the most popular options were working week compression (4 x 10 hour working days) and free public transport!

64% agreed it was difficult to get to work without a car and 50% indicated that they would definitely not prefer to use public transport, even if the system was improved.

However the most telling response was to the question of how high the price of road fuel would have to rise before they would stop using their car to get to work. A staggering (and touchingly defiant) 29% claimed they would never ever give up their car no matter how expensive road fuel became (lucky, old, well heeled and optimistic them!) and 32% just ?didn?t know?!

To paraphrase the author of the report ? ? the vast majority cannot imagine any price increase that would change their behaviour. i.e. they either don?t know or they simply refuse to change. ? (my emphasis).

For a nation apparently blessed with copious, indeed on occasions extravagant, imagination this is an interesting comment on our inability to imagine what effect rising oil prices and scarcity might have on our society and economy.

We in Ireland are, it seems, largely prepared to spend whatever it takes to keep using our expensive and ego confirming chariots in the absence of any perceived viable alternatives. Public transport is clearly for tree huggers and other assorted losers

Imagination Deficit

This set me thinking that purely economic and technical fix proposals, for addressing increasing resource shortages, must inevitably fail due to the extent we are ?locked in? to the current system with little real alternatives other than minor cosmetic tweaks. We may also have very, very unrealistic expectations about what such measures can achieve to retain our current positions and maintain our current comfort zones and energetic lifestyles.

From a politician?s point of view Peak Oil is clearly a total anathema that seriously, seriously needs to be denied. There are clearly no, easy strokes, popular votes or ?good news? in it, no comforting sweeties to feed the electorate, and a set of apparently insoluble consequences that they would generally much rather was perceived as someone else?s problem.

It is thus very difficult to usefully imagine the reality of what lies ahead and therefore how one should or have to respond. As many people cannot, or do not want to, imagine anything very different than what they have become used to it would seem inevitable that change will be most likely continue to be resisted to very near the end of the cheap oil era.

Even for those who lived through it, the economically stagnant high interest and tax, emigration period in Ireland is a rapidly fading reality. Surely it, or something even worse, could never happen again after the miraculous ?Tiger Economy??

Still they say that making predictions is difficult, especially about the future, and especially when we choose to forget the past.

Virtually nobody in the 80s foresaw what Ireland was in for in the 90s.

The Road To Who Knows Where

On this basis the only likely energy scenario for Ireland would appear to be increasingly desperate and ineffectual attempts to maintain the business as usual status quo for as long as possible with a few expensive and poorly executed attempts at technical policy fixes. That, until we are hugely surprised to find that forced localisation is inevitably thrust upon us, at a late stage, by external events outside our control.

It looks as if all those motorists who cannot imagine change are in for quite a shock.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This essay was originally written to the FEASTA Energy e-group involved in the Energy Scenarios Ireland project. Rob Hopkins also wrote about the project here: Ireland: Energy Scenarios and Beyond?.

Roger Adair is a qualified electrical engineer with an MSc in Energy Management from the University of Sunderland and 10 years working experience in the design, manufacture and installation of renewable energy systems.

RogerCO · Post by **RogerCO** » 15 Mar 2006, 21:10

Here's an interesting article entitled "Do and Don'ts for Mind Changers" which talks about how to communicate more effectively to change people's minds.

It's written from a general Green perspective, but what it has to say is very relevant to getting the peak oil message across.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 16 Mar 2006, 10:41

Thanks RogerCO I will have a look at it

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 17 Mar 2006, 13:22

I have only had a chance to have a quick read of this post today lunchtime.

I would make 2 comments. Firstly to re-iterate and re-emphasize Rogers point about the total of 61% of Irish motorists, either never choosing to give up using their cars to get to work no matter the price of fuel or not knowing the required fuel increase required to get them to stop using their cars. I group these two together as the latter is just the same as the former except they don't want to say it outright (in my opinion)! This is scary stuff and shows our dependancy and addiction.

Secondly, I do see a case when politicians will "spill the beans" - this will be when they realise that telling people about the future changes will be more important than telling people that everything is going to be alright. Some brave politicians have already started down this route and more will join this year. These will be the real leaders.

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 19 Mar 2006, 07:36

I'd also add that, with the exception of the Dart and LUAS in Dublin, generally you'd have difficulty using railways for local journeys as they just don't seem to have the same amount of tracks as in the UK, so you would have to rely on buses, which aren't exactly the nicest thing to ride on are they?

This is based on a few experiences only, so please correct me if I'm out of line.

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 19 Mar 2006, 10:46

grinu wrote:...so you would have to rely on buses, which aren't exactly the nicest thing to ride on are they?
line.

It's amazing what people get used to when needs must. Never underestimate human adaptability.

grinu · Post by **grinu** » 19 Mar 2006, 18:36

Wonder if 61% of the people on the van, if they could afford petrol, would drive themselves?