PowerSwitch

The Foresight Institute have just published their review of how transport might develop over the next 50 years, as reported by the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4652534.stm

The full report is available here
The most relevant section being "The Scenarios - Towards 2055"

They propose four scenarios:
Perpetual Motion
lots of hi-tech stuff, "hydrogen economy", utopian world.

Urban Colonies
economic growth decoupled from energy, renewable power and reduced consumption

Good Intentions
We try to cut carbon use but keep "business as usual", and end up muddling along, not really doing enough on the "green" front.

Tribal Trading
Peak Oil hits....

The last one is of most interest to us lot, to give you an idea here's their timeline for this scenario:
? 2011 The year of Peak Oil
? 2015 Oil reaches $200 a barrel
? 2018 Power cuts and outages are routine
? 2022 UK GDP falls to 80% of 2005 level
? 2026 UK banking system collapses
? 2028 Asian flooding permanently displaces 2 million
? 2032 West Midlands sets up regional borders to collect transport revenue
? 2043 UK population stands at 42 million, according to best estimates
? 2045 Regional conflicts over natural resources continue to increase
? 2052 Final commercial aircraft flight

They quote from ASPO, Collapse (Jared Diamond), Deffeyes, Beyond The Limits, Heinberg - so they've certainly done their reading! Anyway, have a look, it's interesting reading. I wonder what the government will make of it....?

Some interesting quotes from the "Tribal Trading" scenario:

Tribal Trading is the most extreme of the scenarios to emerge from the driversbased process that created this set of scenarios. In some of the testing workshops, there were questions as to the likelihood of the scenarios. In particular, participants considered that we would be unlikely as a society to get to the point of social breakdown through energy shortage without an extreme political response, such as the use of military force to secure additional energy supplies or a crash programme to build additional nuclear capacity.

Consideration of these particular options suggests that by the time they occur, they are likely to increase the economic and political instability inherent in the scenario; the time lags involved in building nuclear capability are such that it would increase volatility without resolving the underlying issue. By the time the power stations were on stream, there is a significant risk that it would be hard to guarantee the political stability needed for a civil nuclear energy programme.

Other participants suggested that the scenario was implausible because there would be a political response prior to the series of events that trigger the scenario. On this point it is worth noting that, in the most recent update of Beyond The Limits, the authors note that the ?overshoot? scenario is the most frequent out-turn when they run their ?World3? model. Overshoot occurs as follows:

?If the signal or response from the limit is delayed and if the environment is irreversibly eroded when overstressed, then the growing economy will overshoot its carrying capacity, degrade its resource base, and collapse. The result of this overshoot and collapse is a permanently impoverished environment and a material standard of living much lower than what could have been possible had the environment never been overstressed.?

Their thesis is that our current combination of population growth and economic growth, together with a limited resource base and the long delays in the response of biological and other critical systems to stressing, is a system that is inherently structured for overshoot and collapse. This combination, they say, is ?literally unmanageable?. It would require intervention to prevent this.

While the year of Peak Oil means only that after that date global oil production will start a slow decline (2?3% per year), the global response will define how that affects economies. An unmanaged market, against a background of continuing increases in global demand, could cause extreme economic turbulence.

This is a really interesting + useful site. I'm doing an OU course called Technology for A Sustainable Future so this makes great background reading.
How's your course going, Mike?
Rachel

Rach121 wrote:I'm doing an OU course called Technology for A Sustainable Future so this makes great background reading.

How's it going? I've just started (this weekend) the OU course Energy for a Sustainable Future.

Rach121 wrote:How's your course going, Mike?
Rachel

It's going well thanks. Exams are out the way now, and it's coursework only from this point on. Lots of interesting people on the course, and all receptive to the peak oil ideas! Actually, we've had a lecture specifically on Peak Oil from Roger Bentley (ASPO secretary), and several other lecturers have referred to it in their sessions too. My optional modules in microfinance and livelihoods&natural resource use are proving very interesting too.

We've done a certain amount on transport too, which is why I was interested to see this study from Foresight. I think they are goverment sponsored?

mikepepler wrote: We've done a certain amount on transport too, which is why I was interested to see this study from Foresight. I think they are goverment sponsored?

The Foresight Directorate is part of the Office of Science and Technology which itself forms part of the Department of Trade and Industry.

Yes , they are Civil Service futurologists as you can tell from their web address : http://www.foresight.gov.uk

skeptik wrote: Yes , they are Civil Service futurologists as you can tell from their web address : http://www.foresight.gov.uk

I thought so. I wonder if anyone listens to them?

clv, is yours a post-grad course? I am thinking about what to take next. Channelling my angst into an academic discipline is doing wonders for marital relationship! It means that I can talk, with legitimate reason, about sustainability, oil depletion and climate change within the cosy confines of my course, ergo partner doesn't have to confront the stark reality of what's unfolding day by day. It is, I acknowledge, a short-term solution but one step at a time, I guess.

Rach121 wrote:clv, is yours a post-grad course?

It's a level 2, 60 point under-grad course. I'm not thinking about doing a whole degree, I was just looking for some structure and a more academic focus to what I was reading anyway. Also looking forward to the tutorials and field trip to CAT! I like the way the syllabus contains quite a bit on traditional energy before looking at alternatives.

clv101 wrote:Also looking forward to the tutorials and field trip to CAT!

When are you off to CAT? I'm starting their MSc in Architecture next month so will be there quite a bit over the next couple of years.