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Iceland Prime Minister's doomer speech ...

Posted: 06 Oct 2008, 21:29
by Vortex
Full statement, via Daily Telegraph.

Worth a read. Rather doomerish, especially the bit about 'natural resources'.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... aarde.html
Fellow Icelanders

I have requested the opportunity to address you at this time when the Icelandic nation faces major difficulties.

The entire world is experiencing a major economic crisis, which can be likened in its effects on the world's banking systems, to an economic natural disaster. Large and well established banks on both sides of the Atlantic have become victims of the recession and governments in many countries are rowing for all they are worth to save whatever can be saved. In such circumstances every nation thinks, of course, first and foremost of its own interests. Even the biggest economies in the world are facing a close struggle with the effects of the crisis.

The Icelandic banks have not escaped this banking crisis any more than other international banks and their position is now very serious. In recent years the growth and profitability of the Icelandic banks has been like something akin to a fairy tale. Major opportunities arose when the access to capital on foreign money markets reached its peak, and the banks together with other Icelandic companies, exploited these opportunities to launch into new markets.

Over this period the Icelandic banks have grown hugely and their liabilities are now equivalent to many times Iceland's GNP. Under all normal circumstances larger banks would be more likely to survive temporary difficulties, but the disaster which is now engulfing the world is of a different nature, and the size of the banks in comparison with the Icelandic economy is today their main weakness.

When the international economic crisis began just over a year ago with the collapse of the real estate market in the US and chain reactions due to the so-called sub-prime loans, the position of Icelandic banks was considered to be strong, as they had not taken any significant part in such business. But the effects of this chain of events, have turned out to be more serious and wide ranging than anyone had expected.

In recent weeks the world's financial system has been subject to devastating shocks. Some of the biggest investment banks in the world have become the victims and capital in the markets has in reality dried up. The effects have been that large international banks have stopped financing other banks and complete lack of confidence has developed in business between banks. This has caused the position of Icelandic banks to deteriorate very rapidly in the last few days.

Fellow Icelanders

The Government of Iceland, the Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Authority have over the past days and weeks worked ceaselessly to find a solution to the enormous difficulties which threaten Icelandic banks, in good cooperation with the banks. Various parties have been involved in this work, for example the pension funds and representatives of the labour market. The Government has, for its part, aimed for the sale by Icelandic banks of foreign assets and a reduced presence abroad, so that the Icelandic state, so small in comparison with the Icelandic banks, would have the capacity to support them. We should bear in mind in this connection that the huge measures introduced by the US authorities to rescue their banking system represent just under 5% of GNP. The total economic weight of the Icelandic banks, however, is many times the GNP of Iceland.

Thus a decision on wide-ranging rescue measures for the Icelandic banks is not only a matter of tax payers shouldering a heavier load temporarily, but concerns the position and future of the Icelandic nation as a whole.

The Government has stated that it will do what is in its power to support the banking system. With this aim in view many important steps have been made over recent weeks and months. But in the perilous situation which exists now on the world's financial markets, providing the banks with a secure life line poses a great risk for the Icelandic nation. People must bear this in mind when there is talk about the Icelandic state taking on loans of thousands of billions to defend the banks in the rough waters which they now find themselves in.

There is a very real danger, fellow citizens, that the Icelandic economy, in the worst case, could be sucked with the banks into the whirlpool and the result could be national bankruptcy. No responsible government takes risks with the future of its people, even when the banking system itself is at stake. The Icelandic nation and its future takes precedence over all other interests.

Over the weekend there were virtually continuous meetings on the state of the financial system. I can assure you that everyone who took part tried their absolute best to find an arrangement so that the operations of the banks and investment institutions could continue today and the result of the weekend's work was that yesterday evening the banks would be able to continue operations for the moment.

For this reason I said yesterday evening that it was my judgement and that of the Government that there was no reason to introduce special measures on our behalf. No responsible government introduces dramatic measures on the banking and financial system of the nation unless all other courses are closed.

The position has today altered completely and for the worse. Major credit lines to the banks have been closed and it was decided this morning to suspend trading with the banks and with the savings funds in the Icelandic Stock Exchange.

We now need responsible and measured reactions. I will present immediately a bill to parliament which will allow the exchequer to address the current situation on the financial markets. I have spoken to the opposition parties and received assurance that the bill will be passed today. I would like to thank them for their cooperation.

By making these changes in legislation we will adapt the banking system to Icelandic circumstances and rebuild the trust of foreign operators in Icelandic banking and financial operations. If the bill is passed today it can be assumed that the measures will come immediately into force.

I would like to diffuse all doubt that deposits by Icelanders and private pensions savings in all Icelandic banks are secure and the exchequer will ensure that such deposits are reimbursed to savers in full. No one need be in any doubt on this. The authorities will also ensure that the countries businesses have access to capital and banking services to the maximum extent possible.

Fellow countrymen

I am well aware that this situation is a great shock for many, which raises both fear and anxiety. In such circumstances it is extremely urgent that the authorities, companies, social organisations, parents and others who can contribute make every effort to ensure that daily life is not disrupted.

If there was ever a time when the Icelandic nation needed to stand together and show fortitude in the face of adversity, then this is the moment. I urge you all to guard that which is most important in the life of everyone of us, protect those values which will survive the storm now beginning. I urge families to discuss together and not to allow anxiety to get the upper hand even tough the outlook is grim for many. We need to explain to our children that the world is not on the edge of a precipice and we all need to find an inner courage to look to the future.

Despite this major setback the future of the nation is both sure and bright. What is most important is that the foundations of our society and the economy are solid, even though the superstructure has given way in the face of the present disaster. We have natural resources, both on sea and land, which will ensure us a good living whatever happens. Our level of education and the human resources which we have here are no less enviable in the eyes of other nations than our natural resources.

By the same token, we will have the opportunity to rebuild the financial system. We have learnt from those mistakes which were made during that period of massive growth and that experience will prove to be valuable when put to the test. With a common effort and with that optimism which characterises the Icelandic people, we will emerge from these difficulties and make a new and energetic come-back.

Fellow Icelanders

The task of the authorities over the coming days is clear: to make sure that chaos does not ensue if the Icelandic banks become to some extent non-operational. For this the authorities have many options and they will be used. Both in politics and elsewhere it will be important to sheathe our swords. It is very important that we display both calm and consideration during the difficult days ahead, that we do not lose courage and support each other as well as we can. Thus with Icelandic optimism, fortitude and solidarity as weapons, we will ride out the storm.

God bless Iceland.

Posted: 06 Oct 2008, 21:37
by Vortex
On re-reading it seems that the Icelandic banks may in fact be closing down to some extent ... tricky if you need cash ...

:shock: :shock: :shock:

Posted: 06 Oct 2008, 21:44
by RenewableCandy
That's almost Churchillian compared with the dross we get from our lot!

Posted: 06 Oct 2008, 22:00
by biffvernon
Geir H. Haarde, the Forsætisráðherra Íslands, (that's Icelandic for Prime Minister) does seem to have made the sort of speech that would be surprising in the UK.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 03:29
by kenneal - lagger
I've been wondering for a while why banks not loaning to each other is causing such a problem. I had thought that surely the banks should have money of their own to lend.

But while reading the above, it suddenly dawned on me that the problem was that no new money was being created. When the banks loan each other money, they create new money on the back of the loans, as explained in Money as Debt.

The problem is that the money supply is static or even contracting as debt repayment reduces the money available in the absence of new loans. No wonder there is panic abroad in the banking industry.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 09:26
by Norm
I watched one TV report that said the reason HSBC was OK was because they only loan out 90 cents to the dollar whilst other banks have been loaning $1-20 and beyond. I can't say I understand the process but I am glad that my UK deposits are with HSBC. Perhaps my intuition saves me again! 8)

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 12:22
by oilslick
Norm wrote:I watched one TV report that said the reason HSBC was OK was because they only loan out 90 cents to the dollar whilst other banks have been loaning $1-20 and beyond. I can't say I understand the process but I am glad that my UK deposits are with HSBC. Perhaps my intuition saves me again! 8)
Let's hope they weren't playing too many games in the world of derivatives. They bought a sub-prime lender so you have to think they did other daft things.

F-in scary speech...I expect Gordon Brown to be writing something similar if he hasn't been strung up.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 12:44
by skeptik
kenneal wrote:I've been wondering for a while why banks not loaning to each other is causing such a problem. I had thought that surely the banks should have money of their own to lend.
They are required by law to keep a certain minimum in the vault relative to what's loaned out, but the name of the game is to keep as close to that minimum as possible i.e. the more they have loaned out, the more profit is being made. Money sitting in the vault doing nothing is just depreciating. Sometimes operations take them below minimum reserve requirements so they have to borrow short term to top up - usually from other banks. At the moment all the banks are scared that if they lend out, they wont get their money back as the other bank could go busto. Nobody knows what derivatives exposure anybody else has. It's a problem of no transparency and no trust more than anything else. As they cant or wont lend or borrow from eachother, this means they have to try to hoard cash - which makes loans to customers more expensive and difficult to obtain.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 13:04
by Jibberjabber
This is going to cause problems all over the world.

From the Times.

British savers have been blocked from withdrawing funds from Icesave, the internet savings bank that is owned by Landsbanki, after Iceland’s financial regulator took control of the country's second largest bank .

The Icelandic Government has dismissed the bank's board and put the institution into receivership.

Confirmation of the move came from Iceland's Banking Minister this morning, as the Icesave bank, controlled by Landsbanki, said that 300,000 British savers with the bank would not be able to withdraw their money.

British savers may now face a difficult struggle to extract their money from Icesave.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 18:23
by energy-village
I believe the UK has over 200,000 savers with Icelandic banks and Kaupthing has underwritten more than £3 billion in debt to help finance British deals. Though presumably if they take the £3 billion loan from Russia they should be able to do some juggling and avoid defaulting on debts. That loan would mean, however, a £10,000 debt for every man, woman and child in the country (plus interest, of course). The UK equivalent would be about £600 billion.

Another thing I noticed is that some Icelandic people have mortgages in foreign currencies (e.g. the yen). As the Icelandic currency has dropped 40% presumably this is going to mean a massive rise in the cost or length of repayments.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the main reason Iceland has stayed out of the EU was to maintain their rights to territorial fishing waters (they extended their waters unilaterally in the 70s). Now it looks like they will be forced to apply to enter the EU and the Euro, but as 40% of their exports come from fishing this could be a serious economic blow too.

It's all going to be messy. :(

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 18:55
by skeptik
energycity wrote: Another thing I noticed is that some Icelandic people have mortgages in foreign currencies (e.g. the yen). As the Icelandic currency has dropped 40% presumably this is going to mean a massive rise in the cost or length of repayments.
Japanese banks are quite familiar with multi-generation mortgages - the grandkids can pay it off.
:cry:

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 19:07
by bigjim
I wonder how the Co-op bank, and its online subsidiary Smile, are faring? Not too bad I hope! Although since my bank account still contains less than zero pounds I wouldn't be too hurt if they went belly up.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 20:13
by Andy Hunt
I said to my partner earlier tonight, "have you heard? Iceland has gone bust."

"What, the country?" she chuckled.

"Yes," I replied.

Her face fell. "Oh," she said,"I was joking - I thought you meant the supermarket chain."

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 21:44
by Sarge
Hi all
Long time lurker, first time poster! This site has kept me sane! Many sincere thanks. Been trying to get the other half to understand 'tings' for 4 years now!
Anyway, I had the same experience as Andy re 'Iceland' above only 2 hours ago! She said tonight, relaxing in the bath "Oh you mean the country, I thought you meant the stores!"
"Oh no, I mean the country" I said, (thinking for the umpteenth time 'How can I make her understand..must not rant...must not rant!?) deep breath..."lots of people in Clifton (posh part of Bristol) have just lost lots of money" (not too sure that worked) Anyway, 15 mins later we receive an email from her mum (Clifton, self-made wealth etc) informing us that she has just lost nearly all her money (lots and lots and lots) due to the old Iceland thingy. I think the penny has dropped with her now. (Bye bye inheritance) Too bad it's 4 years too late and all our plans are well and truly knackered.
I can't believe I'm typing this, it seems very surreal and I promise I haven't exaggerated any of it.

Posted: 07 Oct 2008, 22:09
by RenewableCandy
Blimey Sarge I'm impressed! Welcome, anyway, and keep yer chin up.