Blackouts this winter?

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 26 Sep 2008, 17:01

Homes could be plunged into darkness this winter as the nation faces the shocking prospect of power cuts.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... inter.html

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 26 Sep 2008, 21:28

Made the front page of the Metro too. I think it might just be the guys at the GnatGrid trying to get more money from somewhere (though perhaps I've just worked in Scientific research for too long

).

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 26 Sep 2008, 21:32

I think they mentioned that we may have only a 1.5% safety buffer ... but I'm not sure if that's with a raging snowstorm engulfing the whole of the UK!

Post by **adam2** » 27 Sep 2008, 09:40

I consider blackouts possible especialy in the event of severe weather, interuptions in the natural gas supply, or more breakdowns of generating plant than average.

I have however made similar predictions in the past, and as someone pointed out in another thread, nothing much happened.
(we have had power cuts, including a few big ones, but these have been due to one off breakdowns and failures rather than a generalised fuel shortage)

It could be argued that the risks increase each year since every year our existing coal and nuclear stations are a year older and perhaps less reliable, and each year we are more reliant on gas imports from Russia, which may turn out to be less reliable than hoped for.

There also appears to be an increasing risk of industrial disputes affecting the electricity supply, remember the large increase won recently by oil tanker drivers? I have no doubt that other workers hope to achieve similar.

And finally there is the risk that terrorists could attack infrastructure, some of which is very vulnerable.

It would be well to prepare for power cuts, localised breakdowns due to bad weather etc. occur regularly in country districts even if nothing more serious happens.

Post by **adam2** » 27 Sep 2008, 15:18

This has just prompted me to test my UPS at work, not very pleased, run time of 5 minutes, should have run for hours with a 220 A/H battery.

Going out looking for cheap batteries now!

Prepare for the lights to go out in the next 24 hours, since it is well known that dead UPSs cause blackouts, just as umbrelas cause rain!

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 27 Sep 2008, 15:33

adam2 wrote: It would be well to prepare for power cuts, localised breakdowns due to bad weather etc. occur regularly in country districts even if nothing more serious happens.

Ha! Tell me about it!

energy-village · Post by **energy-village** » 27 Sep 2008, 18:50

I'm hoping for some major powercuts this winter.

I don't say that lightly as I know it would cause suffering; but the UK desperately needs some sort of starting gun to get things moving on the energy front (supply and demand).

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 27 Sep 2008, 19:00

energycity wrote:I'm hoping for some major powercuts this winter.

I don't say that lightly as I know it would cause suffering; but the UK desperately needs some sort of starting gun to get things moving on the energy front (supply and demand).

Yea, system shocks are good for "getting their attention". In the case of Sweden it will probably be the demise of the car manufacturers Volvo and Saab (owned by Ford and GM) - that will be a national trauma on par with losing Finland in 1809.

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 27 Sep 2008, 19:54

MacG wrote: In the case of Sweden it will probably be the demise of the car manufacturers Volvo and Saab (owned by Ford and GM) - that will be a national trauma on par with losing Finland in 1809.

Wouldn't the govt. put some sort of rescue package together if either of those two were threatened. I thought Saab was a 'strategic' company? Defence industry?

Are they currently profitable within Ford & GM? I think that GM's operations in Europe as a whole are currently the only profitable part of the company.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 27 Sep 2008, 20:11

skeptik wrote:
MacG wrote: In the case of Sweden it will probably be the demise of the car manufacturers Volvo and Saab (owned by Ford and GM) - that will be a national trauma on par with losing Finland in 1809.
Wouldn't the govt. put some sort of rescue package together if either of those two were threatened. I thought Saab was a 'strategic' company? Defence industry?

Are they currently profitable within Ford & GM? I think that GM's operations in Europe as a whole are currently the only profitable part of the company.

Volvo Car and Saab Automobile are separated from the parent companies. And the cars they make are becoming very irrelevant on today's market. Both lose money (Saab has lost money for 15 years or more!) and the government has subsidized them for ages. I would look at Toyota for a future winner, and maybe BMW and VAG. At least they make relevant cars. I mean, look at a Volvo today - completely irrelevant. Volvo got fat from the XC 90 SUV on the US market, but that's a completely stupid car to own. The same interior volume as the ordinary V70, but more tons of steel to drag around and bigger tires which are more expensive to replace when they wear out. Drove a new V70 some months ago, and it left me with a completely empty feeling - NO soul whatever in that car. The old Volvos at least had the tractor-feeling to set them apart. Now they are proposing some stupid XC 60 for a stupid price, trying to compete with BMW in a niche market for SUV-survivors. Good luck with that...

Keepz · Post by **Keepz** » 29 Sep 2008, 13:33

Vortex wrote:I think they mentioned that we may have only a 1.5% safety buffer ... but I'm not sure if that's with a raging snowstorm engulfing the whole of the UK!

That's the buffer above the safety buffer, not the safety buffer itself.

Keepz · Post by **Keepz** » 29 Sep 2008, 13:36

energycity wrote:the UK desperately needs some sort of starting gun to get things moving on the energy front (supply and demand).

But things are moving! Two new power stations will come on line this winter, the first of some 8 GW of new capacity that's already under construction; and there's about 60 GW more at various stages in the planning and development process, including some which has already got or has already applied for formal consent.

Kieran · Post by **Kieran** » 29 Sep 2008, 14:30

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7638564.stm

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Sep 2008, 14:33

From that report:

Looks like several people have left lights on so plenty of scope for savings to be made.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 29 Sep 2008, 14:43

Allan Asher, chief executive of consumer watchdog Energywatch, told the BBC there were several periods this winter when "it's going to be very tight".

He blamed an "appalling lack of future planning and cavalier regulation", but said: "I just don't think it's wise to alarm people about this.

Hmmmm . . . . .