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BBC News - 18/08/08

Recession looms in the UK in the next six to nine months as firms face "a difficult and risky climate", the British Chambers of Commerce warns.

UK growth will be slightly negative or zero in the next two or three quarters, but a major recession is unlikely, the BCC says in its latest forecast.

Article continues ...

Negative growth again, huh? They ain't seen nuthin' yet.

BBC News - 18/08/08
but a major recession is unlikely, the BCC says in its latest forecast.

Bullshit & wishful thinking. The BCC needs to take its rose tinted specs off and have a serious look at whats going on in the rest of the planet. No mention of the ongoing credit crunch and the effect thats going to have as we go forward? Or is that subject now passé?

My belief is that we are heading for the Mother of all Recessions!!

skeptik wrote:

BBC News - 18/08/08
but a major recession is unlikely, the BCC says in its latest forecast.

Bullshit & wishful thinking. The BCC needs to take its rose tinted specs off and have a serious look at whats going on in the rest of the planet. No mention of the ongoing credit crunch and the effect thats going to have as we go forward? Or is that subject now passé?

Yeah, all in an attempt of "avoiding panic". We've had a year of slowdown but not a recession, now the recession is undeniable we've moved on to recession but not a major one. Next year it'll be major recession but it'll be over by Christmas.

I wish the media/pundits/people with influence would just say things straight and stop trying to manage the unmanageable. Accurate information is the most useful thing in the world.

Editors won't let them mention the D word.......... Depression

Bloody hell! Are you lot trying to cause a depression?

Q: How many economists does it take to change a lightbulb?
A: None. The bulbs not broken. In fact it's getting brighter every day....

Boom tish.

snow hope wrote:Editors won't let them mention the D word.......... Depression

Major Recession/Depression means no advertising. No advertising means no newspaper, hence Snow's quote.

Months away - that's ages - no need to worry!

Seriously; how much difference are a few reactive 0.25% base rate changes going to make?

Isn't it funny how all these experts or maybe journalists, always hark back to the business as usual scenario, and thus predict much less severe problems than will actually materialise.

Example: house price crash - all of last year (since about July) I heard on the news that house price INCREASES will SLOW down, perhaps even level out, but NOBODY was predicting any actual decreases. In fact any such suggestion was always firmly slapped down by the experts as 'having no basis' in fact or some such like.

I wonder where they are now. Perhaps they are the same people who thing that we will have a slow down for couple of years at most and then up we go again.

The BoE is similarly optimistic about inflation: 1-2 years of tough time and inflatuon will be back down to 2% !

No chance. For some reason the eminent economists on the BoE Board, having seen external forces lifting inflation, assume that no such external pressures will occur in the next 12-24 months. What else do they not know, I wonder?

Oil will certainly shoot up before then, so will inflation. I should think that we will get above 10% within a year or so. After all, crude oil extraction may start DECLINING sometime towards the end of 2009 - that will be a shock to the system

kenneal wrote:

snow hope wrote:Editors won't let them mention the D word.......... Depression

Major Recession/Depression means no advertising. No advertising means no newspaper, hence Snow's quote.

I know that advertising revenue is way down, newspapers are tightening their belts and preparing for lean times right now.

Once recession is 'official' (two quarters of negative GDP growth), do we reckon the BoE will cut rates?

Will they cut sooner?

Will they revise the 2% inflation target?

Will they hold firm and raise rates (feck )

The only solution I can see for the US and the UK is to inflate their way out of private and public debt. I can see double digit inflation like the 70s IF the whole financial/money system doesn't crash. And in my books that is a very big IF.

Don't forget, no more growth is coming...... instead we will have contraction - the world money system / economy fails in contraction - it just doesn't work.

snow hope wrote:Don't forget, no more growth is coming...... instead we will have contraction - the world money system / economy fails in contraction - it just doesn't work.

The big question is if the human mind will work. Will make a separate post on this topic...