PowerSwitch

Falling production is curbing exports to the U.S., which buys about 80 percent of the oil Mexico sells abroad.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=energy

No problem ... it only one of the world's key oilfields: the third largest daily producer and the 12th largest in size.

I'm sure the USA can easily replace the 400k barrels a day the decline has cost.

No worries 'tho ... the high prices will magic some more oil out of the ground ... at least that's what the economists say.

Good article here: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Popular/Cantarell.pdf

Crude output from Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.

Production at the Gulf of Mexico development dropped 34 percent in May from a year earlier

Wow. That should be a big story. But the way it's spun we can blame the investement limits of a state-owned company. Nothing to do with geology then.

34% is pretty shocking!

SunnyJim wrote:34% is pretty shocking!

Umm...yes. If my food intake went down by 34% I'd be, erm, no longer quite so Renewable !

Vortex wrote:
No worries 'tho ... the high prices will magic some more oil out of the ground ... at least that's what the economists say.

(wearily ) No, that is not what economists say. What they say is that high prices will encourage more production, eg investment in reserves that were not economical to invest in before, increasing production where possible etc.

If the supply side is unable (eg for geological reasons) or unwilling (eg for political or commercial reasons) to increase supply, then the price will stay high and this will cause demand to fall.

If demand does not fall (eg because consumers do not see the price signal because they are being subsidised) then the price will keep going up until either supply or demand shifts.

Your comment should be made sticky Keepz

Still, I do recall many economists who have over the last few years insisted that there is more than sufficient marginal production that would be economic at $100. They didn't seem to see that either a) geological limits would prevent increased supply, b) technical difficulties would prevent supply, c) geopolitical difficulties would prevent supply, or d) extraction costs would skyrocket making the $100 more like, oh i dunno, $200? Who knows.

Tess wrote:Your comment should be made sticky Keepz

Still, I do recall many economists who have over the last few years insisted that there is more than sufficient marginal production that would be economic at $100. They didn't seem to see that either a) geological limits would prevent increased supply, b) technical difficulties would prevent supply, c) geopolitical difficulties would prevent supply, or d) extraction costs would skyrocket making the $100 more like, oh i dunno, $200? Who knows.

I guess what complicates this is the lead time for the more expensive reserves.

Oil has been at $100+ for less than 1 year - would it not be unfair to expect marginal production to come on within this time frame?

If there IS $100 economic oil (or even $60) its going to be 5 - 7 years before we see that production anyway? So its hard to say whether the economists are wrong on this point or not?

Sorry Master, Economic Theory notwithstanding, it is beyond even my powers to 'encourage production' at those failing oil wells.

34% - is this a record?

I've just been meeting with some people about getting Transition Towns going in Rye, but although they are PO-aware, they don't seem to understand the urgency. Right now I'm thinking each week that goes by without acting makes change more difficult, but people here are worrying about depressing the townsfolk with news of the decline of civilisation, and wondering how many months it will be before we can screen a film.... meanwhile this is happening at Cantarell.....

Here's a piece to get up to speed with; background on Cantarell with recent update:
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm

You know Mike, I think thats true of some people on here too. For example discussion of efficient cars, and gas central heating etc etc....

I think it will be uneconomical to drive to a job 50 mile round trip MUCH sooner than we think.

No point in investing in more efficient central heating in my opinion. etc etc.

I'm thinking that it won't be long before I'm seeing horses and carts at the local veg market again!

mikepepler wrote: I've just been meeting with some people about getting Transition Towns going in Rye, but although they are PO-aware, they don't seem to understand the urgency. Right now I'm thinking each week that goes by without acting makes change more difficult, but people here are worrying about depressing the townsfolk with news of the decline of civilisation, and wondering how many months it will be before we can screen a film....

My sentiment exactly!

The Transition movement seems to attract mainly 'environmentalists', i.e. people who are changing their lives already due to CC issues and who tend to have happy clappy attitude to solving problems. Unfortunately, that includes an attitude of 'not frightening the people' and being positive at all times.

That all has its place, but it does slow down awareness raising and ultimately, action. Having created a lifeboat of my own, I feel an obligation to let others know and allow them individually to take whatever steps they can to safeguard their own position, as well as organising a local community action in an attempt to increase local resilience.

Frustrating work!

mikepepler wrote:34% - is this a record?

I've just been meeting with some people about getting Transition Towns going in Rye, but although they are PO-aware, they don't seem to understand the urgency. Right now I'm thinking each week that goes by without acting makes change more difficult, but people here are worrying about depressing the townsfolk with news of the decline of civilisation, and wondering how many months it will be before we can screen a film.... meanwhile this is happening at Cantarell.....

If you want to pursue this Mike, there is now a South Eastern Transition Hub that could prove useful: http://southeasttransitioninitatives.ning.com/

As far as happy-clappy is concerned, I prefer to think of it as the carrot stage...

Well I'm involved in starting Transition Town Louth, and they don't come much more outspokingly doomerish than me

SunnyJim wrote:You know Mike, I think thats true of some people on here too. For example discussion of efficient cars, and gas central heating etc etc....

Why does discussing gas central heating indicate that I don't understand the urgency? I'm discussing GCH because I'm selling my townhouse in order to buy a house that has a big garden. I know exactly how urgent it is. I desperately want to sell before the general public start realising what is going to happen. I reckon I've got about 3 months.