PowerSwitch

Blue Peter wrote:Surely messing with a major oil producer at this time would be very stupid? I presume that the Iranians may be counting on this?


Peter.

"If there are countries that want to politicize this file, we will react in an appropriate manner. If the file is sent, our reaction will be firm and very clear. And if that moment comes you will see it for yourselves,"

WASHINGTON - Amid increasing tension between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, and growing concern about overstretched US ground forces, the George W Bush administration is moving steadily toward adopting the preemptive use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states as an integral part of its global military strategy.

Iranian officials have hinted Ahmadinejad's nuclear proposal will suggest involving countries such as Russia, China, India and South Africa in its nuclear talks. Hitherto talks have been between Iran and the EU trio of Britain, Germany and France.

"They think that involving other countries perhaps more sympathetic to Iran would undermine the West's ability to portray the idea of a global consensus against its nuclear programme," said a senior Western diplomat in Tehran.

Broadening the talks would also free Iran from the constraints of last November's agreement with the EU trio which obliged it to halt all atomic fuel work. That would pave the way for Iran to resume the most sensitive part of the nuclear fuel cycle -- uranium enrichment, another Berlin-based diplomat said.

Ahmadinejad is expected to make renewed pledges that Iran will never make atom bombs and will cooperate with U.N. regulations, combined with veiled threats of what it might do if sent to the Security Council, diplomats said.

Iranian lawmakers have suggested that if referred Iran should stop allowing short-notice U.N. inspections. Some have proposed provoking a further oil price spike to harm the West by blocking oil exports through the northern Gulf.

VIENNA (Reuters) - The European Union's three biggest powers began drafting a resolution on Sunday urging the U.N. nuclear watchdog to report Tehran to the Security Council for possible sanctions, EU diplomats said.

There is no economic justification for Iran's continued membership in OPEC since the organization is currently acting contrary to its initial goal of keeping crude oil prices high, said a hardline Iranian lawmaker Saturday, in remarks in the daily Sharq.

I believe our presence in OPEC is not necessary... (since) the philosophical existence of OPEC was to block any drop in (oil) prices," said Kamal Daneshyar, head of the Iranian Parliament's influential Energy Committee.

He said Iran should consent to continued membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries only if its long-demanded drive for the post of secretary general is fulfilled.

"Iran's policy must currently be that its stay in OPEC is not necessary. But if it is appointed as secretary general, there would then be the possibility of continued stay in OPEC," he said.

Daneshyar said if the organization decides on increasing its production ceiling in its meeting next week it would be acting counter to the interests of its members since prices might then drop. He said he is in favor of a 5% to 10% drop in the organization's overall production to make sure crude prices will not drop.

The 11-member organization is currently producing around 30.5 million barrels per day. Iran should cut back production from the current 4 million barrels per day to around 3.5 million bbarrels per day for optimum use of its oil resources, he said.

Daneshyar, a Parliament deputy from the southwestern Iranian oil-rich province of Khuzestan, is on record for favoring a reduced role for Western oil companies in the development of Iran's oil and gas sector and for opposing a buyback scheme as a way of attracting foreign investment to the oil sector.

He is also opposed to the export of Iranian natural gas to overseas markets. Daneshyar had previously said that crude oil prices must be allowed to ascend to $100 per barrel to safeguard the interest of producers.

The European Union has turned up the pressure on Iran with a draft resolution reporting Tehran's nuclear programme to the United Nations Security Council.


Russia and China have, however, said the UN nuclear watchdog can handle the issue.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator reacted angrily, warning that Tehran might pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and resume uranium enrichment if reported.

"If you use the language of force Iran will have no choice but to ... leave the framework of the NPT ... and to resume enrichment," Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told a news conference.

Although Iran resumed uranium processing at Isfahan last month, prompting the EU action, Tehran has yet to restart enrichment, the most sensitive part of the nuclear fuel cycle.

Larijani said the world's fourth biggest oil producer might link countries' access to its oil to whether they supported Iran.

Blue Peter wrote:

fishertrop wrote: And, most fundamentally, I think iran both underestimates how little GW's cares for world opinion and just how far they would go in an attack (both on pretext and level and type of force).

It's a match-up made in hell....

That's the bit I don't get. I would think that it was more likely that Iran (and the US) has a better idea of what was going on than we do, not the other way round. And if their actions don't add up, then there is another piece in the puzzle which we're missing....

Peter.

heinbloed wrote: Iran has so much income from it's oilreserves that it could buy ALL photovoltaic modules produced on this globe for market prices to become independent within a few years .
As any developed nation .

Blue Peter wrote: My point is that the best way for Iran to stand up to the US (to describe it in those terms) seems to involve the Euro bourse. Why jeopardise that, which isn't illegal, as far as I know, by doing something that is very sensitive, open to question, has already got a neighbour into trouble?

If you've got something that will really hurt a bully, you do your best to make sure that goes through. You don't put everything at risk by doing something that the bully can "vaguely legitimately" get you for.


Peter.

UNITED NATIONS, New York (IRNA) -- Iran's Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said here on Tuesday that the Iranian nuclear program aims exclusively to produce energy to satisfy the needs of a growing population in a vast country.

Addressing the Annual Meeting of the NAM Foreign Ministers held on the sidelines of the 60th UN General Assembly session, he said that in a bid to build confidence with the international community in this respect, "We have adopted a whole range of measures, including the signing and implementing of the additional protocol, the voluntary suspension of enrichment activities for nearly two years and facilitating the IAEA to carry out around 1200 day/persons inspections on our nuclear sites."

After all these intrusive inspections, the IAEA has repeatedly confirmed that there has been no indication of non-peaceful activities in Iran, Mottaki stressed.

"We have been prepared to stay the same course, continuing our cooperation with the IAEA and implementing our obligations. However, we are not ready to compromise our inalienable rights to nuclear technology, including fuel cycle for peaceful purposes enshrined in the NPT. It is evident that such a compromise on our part is not in the interest of other nations, who may wish to diversify their sources of energy.

Is Iran gearing for war?