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Digital infrastructure "moving beyond human control&
Posted: 23 Aug 2013, 21:41
by nexus
Guardian article:
A series of system crashes affecting Google, DODGY TAX AVOIDERS, Apple and Microsoft in the past fortnight has brought warnings that governments, banks and big business are over-reliant on computer networks that have become too complex.
The alarm was sounded by industry experts in the aftermath of a three-hour network shutdown that paralysed the operation of the Nasdaq stock market in New York on Thursday, on what should have been a quiet day of routine share trading on the exchange.
Jaron Lanier, the author and inventor of the concept of virtual reality, warned that digital infrastructure was moving beyond human control. He said: "When you try to achieve great scale with automation and the automation exceeds the boundaries of human oversight there is going to be failure. That goes for governments, for consumer companies, for Google, or a big insurance company.
"It is infuriating because it is driven by unreasonable greed. In many cases the systems that tend to fail, fail because of an attempt to make them run automatically with a minimal amount of human oversight."
The Nasdaq collapse was caused by a communication failure between its platform for processing quotes and trades and that of another party – reportedly the New York Stock Exchange. So serious was the fallout that it resulted in a third fewer shares being traded in the United States on that day.
"These outages are absolutely going to continue," said Neil MacDonald, a fellow at technology research firm Gartner. "There has been an explosion in data across all types of enterprises. The complexity of the systems created to suppport big data is beyond the understanding of a single person and they also fail in ways that are beyond the comprehension of a single person."
Another illustration of the fragility of complex inter-dependent systems.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2 ... crash-data
Posted: 24 Aug 2013, 06:59
by Billhook
This seems to have the makings of a world class historic cock-up.
A global industry that is now quite as critical as liquid fuel -
which cannot function without continuous very rapid growth in output -
which cannot occur without further complexification -
whose dynamics are already beyond human comprehension -
and which is showing clear signs of progressive instability -
and which just days of down time would start to have dire, irreversible outcomes.
Alongside that rising instabiity, given the hype about malware warfare as the rising threat,
it would seem that setting mines under the main international cables serving potential opponents
- with sonar-linked detonation when required -
would look like a reliable backstop option.
Could either the corporations or major govts run without the internet ?
Regards,
Lewis
Posted: 24 Aug 2013, 11:50
by Little John
Funnily enough, I have been reading how a number of underground movements are going off-line with their communication systems and are relying on face-to-face and hard-copy communications delivered by hand. The authorities have become so reliant in recent decades on electronic systems of surveillance and have so slimmed down their manpower on the back of automation of a lot of that surveillance, that old-fashioned, off-line communication is actually quite hard to surveil.
Posted: 24 Aug 2013, 12:25
by Oxenstierna
Not just underground movements.
I recently read that the Kremlin has just bought a shipment of old fashioned typewriters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... leaks.html
Posted: 24 Aug 2013, 13:45
by Little John
Great minds think alike. I just got hold of one of these for a fiver. Works like a goodun.
Funnily enough, it's an ex-Soviet-block German typewriter. Built like a bleeding tank.
Posted: 25 Aug 2013, 22:57
by JavaScriptDonkey
The inter-connection of computer networks is well understood and designed with redundancy in mind. The Internet as a case in point was designed to route around congestion/damage and is fantastically reliable.
Sadly the code behind all the applications that run on the Internet is nowhere near as robust and probably never can be.
As an aside Jaron Lanier did NOT invent the concept of virtual reality and I doubt he has ever claimed as much.
Posted: 27 Aug 2013, 22:03
by the_lyniezian
stevecook172001 wrote:I just got hold of one of these for a fiver. Works like a goodun.
Funnily enough, it's an ex-Soviet-block German typewriter. Built like a bleeding tank.
Shame one cannot have said the same for the Trabant...
Posted: 02 Sep 2013, 08:37
by adam2
The internet is undeniably useful, but I find the over reliance on the internet and related technologies very worrying.
As periodic scandals and cock ups show, nothing on line is truly reliable or confidential.
Any gross internet failure could lead to food shortages withing hours.
Many large stores not only order on line, but the process is fully automated being linked to sales as recorded by electronic tills. I doubt that they have the skills or proceedures to order from suppliers manually.
(and any so called called manual ordering process probably relies on email !)
The internet is increasingly used for the remote control of vital utility services.
Railway signalling is being rapidly concentrated in a handfull of large remote control rooms, with high technology communications.
Oil refineries are increasingly automated/computer controlled, and perhaps therefore vulnerable to cyber sabotage.
Posted: 02 Sep 2013, 13:21
by SleeperService
Way back in another life we found the most secure communication possible.
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Hello-Kitty-E ... 4897.l4275
I kid you not. Write garbage onto it a few times before using it in anger. Cover your writing hand like you did at school and I challenge anybody to intercept the information.
Much cheaper than quantum entanglement devices.....
Posted: 02 Sep 2013, 13:44
by woodburner
adam2 wrote:The internet is undeniably useful, but I find the over reliance on the internet and related technologies very worrying.
As periodic scandals and cock ups show, nothing on line is truly reliable or confidential.
Any gross internet failure could lead to food shortages withing hours.
Many large stores not only order on line, but the process is fully automated being linked to sales as recorded by electronic tills. I doubt that they have the skills or proceedures to order from suppliers manually.
(and any so called called manual ordering process probably relies on email !)
The internet is increasingly used for the remote control of vital utility services.
Railway signalling is being rapidly concentrated in a handfull of large remote control rooms, with high technology communications.
Oil refineries are increasingly automated/computer controlled, and perhaps therefore vulnerable to cyber sabotage.
One EMP from a nuclear weapon in the right place will cause serious problems for most of us.
Posted: 02 Sep 2013, 13:52
by adam2
YES
Re: Digital infrastructure "moving beyond human control
Posted: 06 Sep 2013, 11:25
by Mr. Fox
nexus wrote:Another illustration of the fragility of complex inter-dependent systems.
Heh... here's another:
(Joseph Tainter: The Collapse of Complex Societies - Cambridge University Press, 1988: p119)
Posted: 06 Sep 2013, 18:59
by JavaScriptDonkey
That's a mostly useless relational graph though based as it is on a conjecture rather than data.
Non-exclusive interdependencies with multiple redundancies are very complex and very reliable.
They are also very expensive.
Reliable, cheap, quick - pick any 2 you like.
Posted: 06 Sep 2013, 19:38
by clv101
JavaScriptDonkey wrote:That's a mostly useless relational graph though based as it is on a conjecture rather than data.
Doesn't
Joseph Tainter's book contain many examples of declining benefits of complexity after a certain level? It's certainly not just conjecture.
Posted: 06 Sep 2013, 19:47
by Little John
woodburner wrote:adam2 wrote:The internet is undeniably useful, but I find the over reliance on the internet and related technologies very worrying.
As periodic scandals and cock ups show, nothing on line is truly reliable or confidential.
Any gross internet failure could lead to food shortages withing hours.
Many large stores not only order on line, but the process is fully automated being linked to sales as recorded by electronic tills. I doubt that they have the skills or proceedures to order from suppliers manually.
(and any so called called manual ordering process probably relies on email !)
The internet is increasingly used for the remote control of vital utility services.
Railway signalling is being rapidly concentrated in a handfull of large remote control rooms, with high technology communications.
Oil refineries are increasingly automated/computer controlled, and perhaps therefore vulnerable to cyber sabotage.
One EMP from a nuclear weapon in the right place will cause serious problems for most of us.
Not for me and my Soviet-era typewriter it wont.....
