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Kenneth Deffeyes wrote:"In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005."

It would seem our Ken has been none too canny and has stuck his foot in his mouth, yet again.

Over at the Oil Drum, Stuart Staniford keeps an eye on the monthly EIA and IEA agencies global oil production data and conveniently graphs it for our enjoyment and edumerkations.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/5/18/34530/3862

the most recent monthy figure (an average of EIA and IEA data) gives a production rate of over 85MB/D

Contrary to Kens rear view mirror prediction, we did not pass the global peak of oil production on December 16th, 2005.

I do wish he'd shut up.

It's people like Ken who have got people talking about Peak Oil. They are never going to be always right but at least they got off their backsides and don't just their extol wisdom through their keyboard activism.

Is it not feasible that the IEA/EIA data is wrong or has been deliberately manipulated ?

rs wrote:Is it not feasible that the IEA/EIA data is wrong or has been deliberately manipulated ?

Well, they often make revisions a few months later - the article Skeptik refers to on TOD does in fact point this out, so we'll not know if it was really true for a few months.

I agree with Skeptik.

If you're trying to raise awareness, never make specific predictions, you always make an arse of yourself and your credibility gets shot.

Try and keep to ranges if predicting ie PO will be 2008-2015 or something.

Its understandable why some dont take Deffyes, Campbell (and others ) seriously.

newmac wrote:at least they got off their backsides and don't just their extol wisdom through their keyboard activism.

Ha! Beware the keyboard activist, for his/her scathing remarks are read by tens of people.

skeptik wrote: the most recent monthy figure (an average of EIA and IEA data) gives a production rate of over 85MB/D

Contrary to Kens rear view mirror prediction, we did not pass the global peak of oil production on December 16th, 2005.

You make it sound like Ken is wrong by some huge margin. In fact the new peak is 85.1... just barely higher than the previous peak. Given the noise in the data, his prediction is still well within bounds. We need to see several more years data before we can say anything definitive either way.

I don't get worked up about predictions like other people seem to. They are just best guesses extrapolated from an underlying theory. It is the underlying theory I look at to see if it is credible.

Well it really depends on what oil our Ken is talking about and the figure that the IEA is quoting. From Campbells profile you will see that total liquids production is not till around 2010 + or - a few years. Campbell also has regular oil peaking in 2005, again + or - a few years.

Are Ken and the IEA talking about the same figures, regular oil or total liquids? There will of course always be discrepancies between forecasts and actual measurements, especially if the measurements have unknown accuracy.