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Review article on Randers new book, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?

Although there is an urban legend that the world will end this year based on a misinterpretation of the Mayan calendar, some researchers think a 40-year-old computer program that predicts a collapse of socioeconomic order and massive drop in human population in this century may be on target

Got my copy a few weeks ago... a good read, but not before bedtime!

This article is abstracting data not only from Randers new book, but also the 2009 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency report , Growing within Limits. See also their web site.

Graham Turner at CSIRO in Australia is continuing his work independently of Club of Rome. CSIRO produced a similar report to the one above. In the USA Charles Hall is also continuing similar work looking at the problem from the point of view of energy supply.

There's a stack of similar reports out there now. Makes very little difference as media and politicians still refuse to engage in a wide-ranging debate of what this means -- and even many leading environmentalists re refusing to follow this line for of fear of the 'hair shirt' label.

2052 looks wildly optimistic.

frank_begbie wrote:2052 looks wildly optimistic.

Like the Arctic sea ice prediction, you mean?

mobbsey wrote:

frank_begbie wrote:2052 looks wildly optimistic.

Like the Arctic sea ice prediction, you mean?

Looking on the bright side it'll be easier to get at the oil now.

frank_begbie wrote:2052 looks wildly optimistic.

I'm about three quarters of the way through this book at the moment. To be fair, he does state at the beginning that the world he will describe in 2052 is the one the models show is most likely to exist. It is not a picture of how the world should be, or should not be, merely the best-guess based on the variables and data inputted to the models.

For those not familiar with the book, it is written by one of the original authors of the Limits To Growth report, and uses the same kind of computer modelling. He also asked commentators within different areas of expertise to describe their picture of 2052 in 1500 words or less. He incorporates many of these into the book as "glimpses", to provide a qualitative counterpoint to the quantitative information in the book.

The picture painted is not exactly apocalyptic, but is nevertheless highly depressing. A highly urbanised society in which increasing proportions of GDP are used for pro-active and/or reactive investment to combat the effects of climate change, leaving less for consumption and therefore resulting in falling living standards. Production is falling due to a combination of falling population and reduced GDP per capita, although this fall in production is not enough to avoid self-reinforcing climate change. The internet is everywhere.

My prediction is that Inverness will be the new Ibiza.

Inverness beach party - 2052

Bring it on!

These are the same models I suppose that they use to predict climate change. The ones that if set at any start point with all known data can't move forward ten years without going completely astray from what has actually happened.

vtsnowedin wrote: These are the same models I suppose that they use to predict climate change.

Nah, they're just dancers.

emordnilap wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote: These are the same models I suppose that they use to predict climate change.

Nah, they're just dancers.

Yes but watching them dance could change your personal climate. It would warm my heart at least.