PowerSwitch

Despite easing inflations, indicators are looking progressively worse as low growth bites. E.g.:
# Credit Action's debt statistics;
# "IMF slashes UK economic growth forecast" -- Guardian, Independent, BBC;
# UK house prices continue to fall;
# We are set to lose vital community organisations;
# Suicide on the rise among older men;
# After Libor, where will the next scandal be?;
# UK faces 'crisis' in innovation investment;
# Global fight for natural resources 'has only just begun'.

From negative equity, to bankruptcy to unemployment it doesn't look good. So, anyone want to run the pool on when the UK will need a bailout?

# After Libor, where will the next scandal be?;

HSBC, bankers to the Mexican drugs mafia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18866018

I doubt that the UK will need a bailout.
At present we are doing less badly than many of our competitors, and in the longer term we can allways inflate our way out of debt, unlike the southern eurozone countries.

I consider high inflation as a result of money printing to be more likely than a bail out.

biffvernon wrote:# After Libor, where will the next scandal be?;

HSBC, bankers to the Mexican drugs mafia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18866018

Was just about to post this - unbelievable!

I think there are a lot more skeletons to come out of the cupboard yet.....

And HSBC were rated as the only London based bank in the Premier League

SleeperService wrote:And HSBC were rated as the only London based bank in the Premier League

Are you making a connection there between the over-indulgent habits of bankers and footballers?

mobbsey wrote:

SleeperService wrote:And HSBC were rated as the only London based bank in the Premier League

Are you making a connection there between the over-indulgent habits of bankers and footballers?

Barclays Premier League, innit.

With their recent performance Barclays should be sponsoring wrestling

SleeperService wrote:With their recent performance Barclays should be sponsoring wrestling

Mud Wrestling?
- it is brown and looks like mud

This is why the UK is absolutely screwed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-bjjSL2 ... r_embedded#!

The first half of this episode of the Keiser Report contains a hilarious rant (starts at about 3 minutes) about aliens, but the second half is a real wake-up call for anyone who thinks the UK is alright. We have hardly any gold. When the monetary system collapses, and it will, then it will be replaced with a gold-based system.

Gold reserves (tonnes) (from wikipedia):

1 United States United States of America 8,133.5
2 Germany Federal Republic of Germany 3,396.3
3 International Monetary Fund 2,814.0
4 Italy Italian Republic 2,451.8
5 France French Republic 2,435.4
6 China People's Republic of China 1,054.1
7 Switzerland Swiss Confederation 1,040.1
8 Russia Russian Federation 883.2
9 Japan Japan 765.2
10 Netherlands Kingdom of the Netherlands 612.5
11 India Republic of India 557.7
12 European Central Bank 502.1
13 Taiwan Republic of China (Taiwan) 422.4
14 Portugal Portuguese Republic 382.5
15 Venezuela Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 372.9
16 Saudi Arabia Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 322.9
17 United Kingdom 310.3

At some point in the not-too-distant future, there is going to be an almighty shock to the fiat money system (default or hyperinflation, doesn't make much difference which) and the powers that be will finally play the only card they have left, which is to create a new monetary system based on gold. Between them, the Germans, French and Italians have 8,200 tonnes of gold. The UK has 310 tonnes. At that point all the momentum the UK had left from its time as the most powerful nation on Earth will be gone. Our financial sector will be completely wiped out and we will have to start again as a very minor player. The UK will suddenly find it very expensive to import anything.

Our best bet now is for a full-scale meltdown of the eurozone, a return to multiple european currencies and the necessity for a complete renegotiation of the european treaties. I see no benefits whatsoever for the UK remaining in the EU under these circumstances. We might end up in some sort of economic union or free trade zone with the scandinavian countries and Ireland.

Interesting.

I suppose you could run a currency (e.g. pound sterling) off a multiple of the gold you have in reserve. The problem with the UK having so little gold is that a tiny fluctuation in the global gold price could potentially send the currency swinging wildly up or down.

I imagine we'd have to join the Euro (if it survives).

energy-village wrote:Interesting.

I suppose you could run a currency (e.g. pound sterling) off a multiple of the gold you have in reserve. The problem with the UK having so little gold is that a tiny fluctuation in the global gold price could potentially send the currency swinging wildly up or down.

I imagine we'd have to join the Euro (if it survives).

I'm not sure exactly how it would work or what we'll end up doing, but I do know that having hardly any gold and an oversized, completely busted banking system is not going to help our negotiating position.

UndercoverElephant wrote:Between them, the Germans, French and Italians have 8,200 tonnes of gold.

They're going to look a bit silly when they discover that all it's good for is baubles.

(Apparently there's some on the jack plug of my electric guitar, but I'm sure it would work just as well without.)

biffvernon wrote:

UndercoverElephant wrote:Between them, the Germans, French and Italians have 8,200 tonnes of gold.

They're going to look a bit silly when they discover that all it's good for is baubles.

I'm amazed you still don't get this, Biff. In a world where the fiat money system has just imploded, 8,200 tonnes of gold buys you a seat at the table where the new system is designed. Last time such a table existed the US owned half the world's gold, and therefore the US decided how the new system would work. This gave the US a massive economic advantage that it has been benefiting from ever since...even now.

It's not the Germans, French and Italians who are going to end up looking (more than) a bit silly. It's going to be us.