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Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 17:21
by Adam Polczyk
Any thoughts on this?
Nov 10 (Reuters) - The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union's energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday.
"My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked," Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels.
Original article
here.
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 17:26
by Andy Hunt
And there we have it. Rising consumption in Chindia will have to be offset by falling consumption in the West. Oil has peaked and there is no spare capacity to support demand growth across the globe.
Re: Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 19:01
by JohnB
Nov 10 (Reuters) - The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union's energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday.
"My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked," Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels.
The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked
global consumption of oil is going to increase
Bit of an oxymoron isn't it?
Re: Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 19:12
by Tawney
JohnB wrote:Adam Polczyk wrote:Nov 10 (Reuters) - The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union's energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday.
"My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked," Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels.
The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked
global consumption of oil is going to increase
Bit of an oxymoron isn't it?
Just what I thought. Sloppy editing from Reuters.
Re: Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 19:50
by UndercoverElephant
JohnB wrote:Nov 10 (Reuters) - The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union's energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday.
"My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked," Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels.
The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked
global consumption of oil is going to increase
Bit of an oxymoron isn't it?
Strictly speaking, no. If at the point of maximum availability, consumption is only 75% percent of capacity, then availability can decrease by 20% and consumption can still increase.
Re: Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 20:17
by JohnB
UndercoverElephant wrote:Strictly speaking, no. If at the point of maximum availability, consumption is only 75% percent of capacity, then availability can decrease by 20% and consumption can still increase.
So are there huge stocks somewhere, waiting to be sold? If stocks haven't been increasing, it may have been possible to produce more, but if availability has peaked, it's no longer possible to do so, so the opportunity to increase supply has gone. Or are we just discussing sloppy journalism, rather than real facts?
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 21:11
by Lord Beria3
Conventional oil has apparently peaked globally, unconventional oil may still have significant production increases in the future. Look at shale gas, a few years ago I was reading articles in the Oil Drum talking about how natural gas production in the US was going to fall of a cliff, the opposite has happened, shale gas production has exploded and send natural gas prices to lows.
Whether the same can happen to unconventional oil is a interesting question - I remain open minded.
Demand/consumption is anather matter, if China's growth rates slow dramatically (along with the rest of Asia) that reduces demand... ditto if Americans start to be much more frugal with their energy usage, than will free up supplies and potentially lower prices.
Demand is not inelastic... there is a lot of low hanging fruit available in terms of demand destruction.
Re: Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 21:18
by UndercoverElephant
JohnB wrote:UndercoverElephant wrote:Strictly speaking, no. If at the point of maximum availability, consumption is only 75% percent of capacity, then availability can decrease by 20% and consumption can still increase.
So are there huge stocks somewhere, waiting to be sold? If stocks haven't been increasing, it may have been possible to produce more, but if availability has peaked, it's no longer possible to do so, so the opportunity to increase supply has gone. Or are we just discussing sloppy journalism, rather than real facts?
I was just making a point about the logic of the argument, personally. It is not logically impossible (i.e. oxymoronic) for consumption to peak at a later date than peak availability, provided the oil industry was not pumping oil at 100% of capacity at the point of maximum availability.
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 21:23
by Adam Polczyk
Isn't the significant thing, that the European Commissioner for Energy has openly acknowledged that he thinks "The amount of oil available globally ... has already peaked"?
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 21:34
by Vortex
Demand is not inelastic... there is a lot of low hanging fruit available in terms of demand destruction.
Maybe 20% in the UK before major social reorganisation is required.
The 'knee point' is pretty sharp so expect sudden social disorder as people reach their 20% limit.
Posted: 20 Nov 2010, 21:37
by PS_RalphW
Global stocks are quite high. Measured in billions of barrels. There are commercail onshore stocks, strategic reseves, and unspecified amounts near the well head and at storage points in OPEC countries. At any one time, maybe another billion barrels are in transit, and other tankers at anchor waiting for 'the right price'. Maybe a couple of month's worth of global production. Long distance pipelines hold a lot of oil.
The world can consume more than it pumps out of the ground, by a few percent, for many months.
Unconventional oil will expand, but the rate of expansion will probably be less than the rate of decline from conventional, once it sets in. Unconventional sources are by their nature either of lower energy value like NGLs, or very capital expensive and slow to extract like tar sands, or simply uneconomic like shale oil, or not even fossil fuels, like corn ethanol.
Re: Global oil availability has peaked - EU energy chief
Posted: 21 Nov 2010, 01:11
by Tawney
UndercoverElephant wrote:I was just making a point about the logic of the argument, personally. It is not logically impossible (i.e. oxymoronic) for consumption to peak at a later date than peak availability, provided the oil industry was not pumping oil at 100% of capacity at the point of maximum availability.
I still think it's lazy editing, rather than a "nice" point of distinction that’s being made.
Posted: 21 Nov 2010, 08:07
by biffvernon
Lord Beria3 wrote:Look at shale gas, a few years ago I was reading articles in the Oil Drum talking about how natural gas production in the US was going to fall of a cliff, the opposite has happened, shale gas production has exploded and send natural gas prices to lows.
Just check that against reality, please.
Posted: 21 Nov 2010, 10:47
by Adam Polczyk
As I said...
Adam Polczyk wrote:Isn't the significant thing, that the European Commissioner for Energy has openly acknowledged that he thinks "The amount of oil available globally ... has already peaked"?
Isn't that important?
Posted: 21 Nov 2010, 11:35
by biffvernon
Important? I guess we will see more and more people within the governmental systems acknowledge what to us in the bleedin' obvious. It'll be important then the Sun headline says THERE'S NO MORE OIL because that's when people will notice. By then of course, it will all be far to late.