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The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2010 is due for release on Tuesday 9/11

Lets' see what they have in store for us this year. Presumably Monbiot will be on the case...

One of the interesting things about the Colin Campbell letter linked to on another thread was the suggestion there that the WEO contents are pre-approved in some way by the G8.
http://aspoireland.org/2009/11/20/ieawh ... rresponse/

TS is about to HTF!

Here's the link to the press release:

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/ ... nglish.pdf

Apparently, in the New Policies Scenario (read: in the best of all possible worlds) production will peak in around 2016 'cos there just won't be the demand for oil (not for any reason related to supply).

The first impressions over at TOD are that the report is pure fiction, so thinly veiled as to be as clear alarm bell as the report writers can be, politically.

It has total conventional crude oil production as completely flat, to within 1 mpd, for 20 years. This is about as believable as OPEC stated reserves.

It has an ever greater percentage of conventional oil coming from the 'yet to be discovered' category, and the rate of depletion of these 'yet to be discovered reserves' increases to 18% a year. The global average for conventional fields is 5%. 18% is pure fantasy land.

In other words, they are saying that to keep conventional production flat, and given realistic draw down of existing reserves and new field dicoveries, the oil industry will have to perform miracles.

woodpecker wrote:Apparently, in the New Policies Scenario (read: in the best of all possible worlds) production will peak in around 2016 'cos there just won't be the demand for oil (not for any reason related to supply).

But aren't supply and demand both locked in an intimate dance of death?

I think the best way to see it is as a whole series of supply and demand peaks - hence the jagged up-slope. On the way down the peaks on the jagged slope will be determined by the available supply of oil at that peak price and, as has always happened, when demand exceeds supply the price shoots up and causes a bust so the demand falls and the supply soon after.

foodimista wrote:

woodpecker wrote:Apparently, in the New Policies Scenario (read: in the best of all possible worlds) production will peak in around 2016 'cos there just won't be the demand for oil (not for any reason related to supply).

But aren't supply and demand both locked in an intimate dance of death?

I think the best way to see it is as a whole series of supply and demand peaks - hence the jagged up-slope. On the way down the peaks on the jagged slope will be determined by the available supply of oil at that peak price and, as has always happened, when demand exceeds supply the price shoots up and causes a bust so the demand falls and the supply soon after.

I'm merely quoting what they argue in the Outlook's press release; it's not my view at all.

Summing up then, crude oil will never again reach the peak of 2006 and unless we get considerable long-term investment in unconventionals and as-yet undiscovered technologies to clean up afterwards, we haven't a prayer of keeping up with increasing demand.

Nothing new there.

The actual quote:

Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d, by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70mb/d reached in 2006.

So there you have it, the non-event of global peak oil, neatly packaged and acknowledged.

Can anyone spot the patten in their projections?



See the 2020 projection from 2007 to 2010, if it keeps falling at 4 mbpd per year, by 2020 the 'projection' will be around 56 mbpd (this is a joke!).

clv101 wrote:Can anyone spot the patten in their projections?

The diagram seem to represent eleven jokes. The trend is that they are getting less funny.

clv101 wrote:Can anyone spot the patten in their projections?

Got him! Do I win the prize?

I dont understand

The graph... that is...

The graph shows the annual prediction of oil supply from the EIA over the last 10 years.

In 2000, they were predicting oodles of barrels and practically every year since the predictions have dropped and dropped and dropped - they have to fit with reality after all......

Pie in the Sky with Diamonds.....

maudibe wrote:I dont understand

The graph... that is...

In every recent year they have published estimates of what they consider to be the likely world oil production in future years.

These predictions are generally considered to be unduly optimistic.
The more recent predictions have been perhaps less over optimistic, though still almost certainly over estimating future production.

For example the recent estimate of oil production for 2020 is much less than was estimated 10 years ago for 2020 production.

The different coloured lines on the graph are future forecasts of production, made in different years.
The more recently made forecasts are lower, though still over optimistic in my view and that of many others.

They expect a great increase in production from oil that has yet to be discovered.
By definition we dont how much more oil awaits discovery, but it seems unlikely that discovery rates will increase.
Oil discoveries peaked decades ago.